July 2016 Observation and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[Jesse]

It's mostly an island issue for now. Sounds like the Haida Gwaii up north is also starting to see issues with low water.

The late week system should help somewhat.

[TT-SEA]

Lake Couer D'Alene is gorgeous.

 

 

Also... we drove 20 miles south on 95 from CDA to get to our rental house and the drive was spectacular. We had never been down this way.

[Tyler Mode]

Chilly morning, a low of 46.5 today. The coldest it got down to all of last July was 49.2.

 

3 of 5 days with lows in the 40s this month.  Again, last July only saw 3 the entire month.

[Jesse]

Chilly morning, a low of 46.5 today. The coldest it got down to all of last July was 49.2.

 

3 of 5 days with lows in the 40s this month. Again, last July only saw 3 the entire month.

Yup, cleared out enough overnight for some cool lows, and now clouds and light showers seem to be moving in from the NW. Could be a pretty cool day in spots.

[Tyler Mode]

Yup, cleared out enough overnight for some cool lows, and now clouds and light showers seem to be moving in from the NW. Could be a pretty cool day in spots.

Ya, I was surprised at how clear it was this morning given the strong NW winds last night.  Almost completely clouded over now and 58 degrees.

 

I've only had this station 6 years in December, so my record lows the next couple of mornings are:

 

6th: 48.5

7th: 51.1

8th: 51.9

 

Hopefully I can notch those down, but the cloud cover my hinder that.

[Tyler Mode]

All,

 

Here are pictures from my short hike up Vista Ridge near Mt. Hood in Oregon. 

 

A couple of weather related items:

 

1) There must have been quite a bit more wind this winter as there were a lot more snags blown down over the trail.

 

2) The wildflowers are running just over two weeks behind where they were last year thanks to a larger snow pack.

 

All pictures:

 

http://www.naturespixpdx.com/Landscapes/Vista-Ridge-7116/

 

This area was burned a few years ago in the Dollar Lake Fire.  The regrowth is amazing though.

 

Blowdown:

 

 

Wildflowers...I took similar pictures of this area in mid-June last year.

 

[Phil]

00z EPS retrogrades the height fields completely, with troughing centered over the PNW through d15.

 

New ECMWF weeklies also do the same thing, with offshore ridging (centered near the Aleutians) persisting through the remainder of July, through most of August.

[Tyler Mode]

I just turned my heat on. On July 5th. A year ago it was 95.

[GobBluth]

00z EPS retrogrades the height fields completely, with troughing centered over the PNW through d15.

 

New ECMWF weeklies also do the same thing, with offshore ridging (centered near the Aleutians) persisting through the remainder of July, through most of August.

Seems the PNW is now locked into a persistent troughing pattern, the opposite of last years ridge. What are the chances there's a reprieve and the 4 corners ridge expands northwest?

[Phil]

Seems the PNW is now locked into a persistent troughing pattern, the opposite of last years ridge. What are the chances there's a reprieve and the 4 corners ridge expands northwest?

I don't see any prolonged ridging/heatwaves through the remainder of July at least. There should be a brief mid-month break in the troughing, following TC-induced WAFs boosting vorticity/EFs under the NPAC jet, however this will quickly retrograde/split as heights build in the NPAC thereafter.

[stuffradio]

It's crazy how much it's pouring right now. It's like a winter/spring rain storm.

[Phil]

12z ECMWF in line with its 00z OP/EPS run overall, as well as the 12z GEFS. Waiting on the 12z EPS/NAEFS.

[Anti Marine Layer]

Strange summer so far with a very strong 4 Corners ridge bringing record heat to Southern California around the summer solstice just a few days after snow was forecast as low as 6000 ft for Northern California. Now that ridge is gone and it looks similar to 2010, except that sea surface temperatures are much warmer, at least for Southern California. 2010 had persistent troughs for the PAC NW, and kept Southern California coastal areas very cool in July 2010. In fact, I remember places struggling to break out of the mid 60s in 2010 right after July 4th.

[Phil]

12z EPS similar to 00z, slightly stronger with offshore ridging overall, except much stronger with the ridging over the Aleutians during the 11-15 day range. Went from neutral to +1.5SD there in the extended range.

 

Also depicts a major heatwave over most of the country east of the Rockies in the 11-15 day..in fact the only "blues" in the country are in the NW.

[Phil]

Also, FWIW the 12z NAEFS trended in line with the 12z EPS in the 11-15 day range overall, with a stronger offshore/Aleutian ridge and NW trough. Fairly consistent trend since Sunday.

[stuffradio]

I got .74 inches of rain today and .15 inches yesterday.

[ShawniganLake]

I got .74 inches of rain today and .15 inches yesterday.

0.02" here.

[stuffradio]

I saw a temp anomaly map for Sunday for the PNW and it's crazy for July.

[MossMan]

Brrrrr!!! Both my wife and I have been freezing ever since getting back from Chelan last Friday. Looking forward to retiring over there.

[Jesse]

Bellingham barely missed seeing a high in the 50s today. Pretty impressive for the first week of July.

[Deweydog]

-4 today at PDX. -3 at OLM.

 

What.

 

 

 

The.

 

 

 

 

****.

[Jesse]

-4 today at PDX. -3 at OLM.

 

What.

 

 

 

The.

 

 

 

 

****.

Even worse, PDX was just one post-5pm screw job shy of a super sexy -5.

[Deweydog]

Even worse, PDX was just one post-5pm screw job shy of a super sexy -5.

D**n near halfway to a -10!

[stuffradio]

D**n near halfway to a -10!

Think about this, -10 is half way to -20!

[Deweydog]

Think about this, -10 is half way to -20!

So really, for all intents and purposes for the most part today was a -20.

[stuffradio]

So really, for all intents and purposes for the most part today was a -20.

That's what I'm thinking.

[snow_wizard]

Bellingham barely missed seeing a high in the 50s today. Pretty impressive for the first week of July.

 

It is SO nice to finally be out of the endless torching.  All in all I love the pattern we have gotten into.  Nice to see so much NW flow.

[Jesse]

It is SO nice to finally be out of the endless torching. All in all I love the pattern we have gotten into. Nice to see so much NW flow.

Couldn't agree more.

[Jesse]

PDX will likely hit 80 tomorrow, but it looks like a pretty ridiculous stretch of cool weather for this time of year after that.

[BLI snowman]

PDX will likely hit 80 tomorrow, but it looks like a pretty ridiculous stretch of cool weather for this time of year after that.

 

Could be a September payback on the way!

[Phil]

00z ECMWF is cooler than average from the surface to 850mb through the entire run, with the retrogression starting earlier (between days 9 & 10).

[Deweydog]

Could be a September payback on the way!

Starting to take on that feel.

[Deweydog]

00z ECMWF is cooler than average from the surface to 850mb through the entire run, with the retrogression starting earlier (between days 9 & 10).

-10f???

[Phil]

-10f???

Lol.

 

Some -15s showing up for the weekend. That's one heck of a trough regardless.

[Deweydog]

Lol.

 

Some -15s showing up for the weekend. That's one heck of a trough regardless.

Where do you come up with this stuff?

 

Do you have any idea the numbers needed to pull off a -15f day around here in July?

[Phil]

Where do you come up with this stuff?

 

Do you have any idea the numbers needed to pull off a -15f day around here in July?

At 850mb.

[Phil]

As far as 850mb temperatures are concerned, they're just about as anomalous as they were during the June heatwave, at least during the weekend.

 

I don't know enough about the lower boundary layer tendencies or microclimates out there to say anything more.

[Deweydog]

As far as 850mb temperatures are concerned, they're just about as anomalous as they were during the June heatwave, at least during the weekend.

 

I don't know enough about the lower boundary layer tendencies or microclimates out there to say anything more.

It's an impressive trough, definitely a fringe entity considering the transition from early to mid summer.

 

Pulling off anything more than a -10 day at any westside location is highly unlikely though. Could see some -15's for highs perhaps, possibly even cooler if anything stratiform precip comes to pass.

[ShawniganLake]

Lol.

 

Some -15s showing up for the weekend. That's one heck of a trough regardless.

Could be looking at some freeze advisories around Olympia, if that comes to fruition. 

[stuffradio]

Where do you come up with this stuff?

 

Do you have any idea the numbers needed to pull off a -15f day around here in July?

That's close to -20!