July 2016 Observation and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[stuffradio]

So 20 acres?    

Close to 24 acres

[stuffradio]

I don't know why anyone would like my post about there being a forest fire. It's now threatening to set ablaze in an industrial area, and it has now jumped the highway!

 

Edit: Power is being shut down to the industrial buildings as a precaution as the fire starts approaching.

 

Depending on the power and direction of wind, I may be starting to smell/see the smoke within an hour or so.

[Jesse]

18z is troughalicious!

 

This kind of pattern is great news for dry areas that are already seeing wildfires.

 

Euro ensembles were troughier in the long range than the op as well.

[epiceast]

I think there will be a big jump on the next reading... the clouds are just dissolving now.

Yea it hit 70. Surprising.

[TT-SEA]

18z is troughalicious!

 

This kind of pattern is great news for dry areas that are already seeing wildfires.

 

Euro ensembles were troughier in the long range than the op as well.

Best to skip summer in case there is a wildfire. Wildfires are not natural.

 

ECMWF ensemble mean is still nice. It will not be as troughy after the system next weekend. Sort of obvious after the next week that it will improve in July.

[Phil]

18z is troughalicious!

 

This kind of pattern is great news for dry areas that are already seeing wildfires.

 

Euro ensembles were troughier in the long range than the op as well.

The 18z GEFS and bias-corrected GEFS also trended troughaliciously in the long range.

[stuffradio]

Update: It's been reported the fire is now over 200 acres. There are now 80+ firefighters fighting this thing but it's still growing...

[Jesse]

The 18z GEFS and bias-corrected GEFS also trended troughaliciously in the long range.

Good to hear.

[Deweydog]

All the snow from this morning is gone here in Sandy.

 

#sunanglematters

[Jesse]

All the snow from this morning is gone here in Sandy.

 

#sunanglematters

The sun angle is quickly approaching early June levels now!

[Jesse]

Great evening out. Low 70s with dps in the mid-40s and a cool NW breeze.

[Deweydog]

The sun angle is quickly approaching early June levels now!

It's amazing just how quickly it becomes a factor after the solstice.

[Jesse]

It's amazing just how quickly it becomes a factor after the solstice.

Late-July WRF posts illustrating this to come!

[Deweydog]

Late-July WRF posts illustrating this to come!

Early August blooms!

[MossMan]

Nice day!!!

[TT-SEA]

Pretty decent rain totals through next Sunday night from the new 00z GFS. Around 1.5" for much of the PDX and SEA Metro areas.

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2016070400/174/qpf_acc.us_nw.png

 

 

Most of that comes next weekend.

[Jesse]

Pretty decent rain totals through next Sunday night from the new 00z GFS. Around 1.5" for much of the PDX and SEA Metro areas.

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2016070400/174/qpf_acc.us_nw.png

That looks wonderful.

[Deweydog]

For what it's worth, the Canadian sure takes a much more pedestrian stance on next weekend.

 

Troughalicious, but more like Panda Express orange chicken as opposed to an In and Out double double.

[Jesse]

For what it's worth, the Canadian sure takes a much more pedestrian stance on next weekend.

 

Troughalicious, but more like Panda Express orange chicken as opposed to an In and Out double double.

Isn't the Canadian always pulling these sorts of hijinks, getting Tim's hopes up?

 

Hard to go up against the GFS and Euro when they are in agreement.

[Deweydog]

Isn't the Canadian always pulling these sorts of hijinks, getting Tim's hopes up?

 

Hard to go up against the GFS and Euro when they are in agreement.

Yes. Anything and everything routes through Tim.

 

Healthy.

[Jesse]

Yes. Anything and everything routes through Tim.

 

Healthy.

Just an observation. When there is a troughy period on the way there are usually several posts noting that the Canadian has totally abandoned everything resembling a trough and switched to 600dm ridging. I don't look at it myself so I am only made aware of its idiosyncrasies through proxy.

[Deweydog]

Just an observation. When there is a troughy period on the way there are usually several posts noting that the Canadian has totally abandoned everything resembling a trough and switched to 600dm ridging. I don't look at it myself so I am only made aware of its idiosyncrasies through proxy.

It shows 595dm at best. Rest easy, spaz.

[Jesse]

It shows 595dm at best. Rest easy, spaz.

Outdoor plans next weekend?

[TT-SEA]

Just an observation. When there is a troughy period on the way there are usually several posts noting that the Canadian has totally abandoned everything resembling a trough and switched to 600dm ridging. I don't look at it myself so I am only made aware of its idiosyncrasies through proxy.

 

Silly post... I must have a good handle on the models and their tendencies and dashed your hopes with reality enough times that it bothers you a great deal.

 

In other words... thou doth protest too much.  

[Deweydog]

Outdoor plans next weekend?

Just baseball.

 

Why do you ask? Wanna get together or something? Bring an umbrella if you do!

[TT-SEA]

BTW - the Canadian has been worse than usual lately.   And with a pedestrian bias.   It did this with the troughy period in May and June as well... too weak and too warm.    FWIW.   Just reporting the facts.

[Deweydog]

BTW - the Canadian has been worse than usual lately. And with a pedestrian bias. It did this with the troughy period in May and June as well... too weak and too warm. FWIW. Just reporting the facts.

Typical Tim...

[Jesse]

Typical Tim...

 

Someone is becoming quite the fan boy.

[Jesse]

Silly post... I must have a good handle on the models and their tendencies and dashed your hopes with reality enough times that it bothers you a great deal.

 

In other words... thou doth protest too much.  

 

No...hopeful posts about the Canadian suddenly switching to ridging and possibly being a game changer have become a pretty predictable occurrence whenever there is a troughy period looming. One of those clockwork things here, and if anything I've noticed that it has generally been wrong.

[Jesse]

Just baseball.

 

Why do you ask? Wanna get together or something? Bring an umbrella if you do!

 

Not if the Canadian has anything to say about it. Game changer!

[TT-SEA]

No...hopeful posts about the Canadian suddenly switching to ridging and possibly being a game changer have become a pretty predictable occurrence whenever there is a troughy period looming. One of those clockwork things here, and if anything I've noticed that it has generally been wrong.

No. It has its strengths at times. And it has been right fairly often. Enough to bother you quite a bit. Not to worry now. It is not handling this Nino to Nina transition very well. Maybe it will come back once the transition is complete.

 

And it works both ways. Sometimes its a ridge party crasher and I point that out as well. That does not scare you so it's not forefront in your memory.

[Jesse]

00Z GFS ensembles look to be in pretty solid agreement on the trough late this week.

 

A good, soaking rain like that would be pretty nice going into the driest few months of the year. Especially for places up north that are in drought conditions.

[Jesse]

No. It has its strengths at times. And it has been right fairly often. Enough to bother you quite a bit. Not to worry now. It is not handling this Nino to Nina transition very well. Maybe it will come back once the transition is complete.

 

And it works both ways. Sometimes its a ridge party crasher and I point that out as well. That does not scare you so it's not forefront in your memory.

 

Fair enough, although I have a pretty good memory, and I am pretty certain I remember more of the kind I was talking about.

[Jesse]

http://www.cbc.ca/beta/news/canada/british-columbia/burns-bog-fire-1.3662928

 

Well crap. that is going to be a pretty D**n serious situation if that becomes a full blown peat fire, especially with the BC Hydro lines and the new developments in Delta.

 

I don't really get what they mean my the geography hampering firefighting efforts, I thought that area was easily accessible.

 

All the more reason to hope for some soaking rains out of this troughy pattern.

 

I had no idea they had peat bogs up there.

[Deweydog]

Not if the Canadian has anything to say about it. Game changer!

 

I had a feeling mentioning it might rile you up, but I didn't think this much.  The Canadian and I are lockstep with underestimating things...

[Jesse]

I had a feeling mentioning it might rile you up, but I didn't think this much. The Canadian and I are lockstep with underestimating things...

Think dry thoughts!

 

The Sahara, martinis, British humor, Hillary Clinton....

[TT-SEA]

ECMWF keeps the weekend trough of course... and also continues theme of a pattern change next week to much warmer and drier.   Again that is fairly likely given the sequence of events recently and coming up over the next week.

 

http://stream.ecmwf.int/data/atls02/data/data01/scratch/ps2png-atls02-95e2cf679cd58ee9b4db4dd119a05a8d-b4Ho3H.png

[Phil]

Isn't the Canadian always pulling these sorts of hijinks, getting Tim's hopes up?

 

Hard to go up against the GFS and Euro when they are in agreement.

It's actually a troughy run. The weekend trough is just more elongated. Long term it's trending the right way with the equatorward momentum fluxes, suggesting any break in the troughing will be brief before the next round of offshore height rises.

[TT-SEA]

It's actually a troughy run. The weekend trough is just more elongated. Long term it's trending the right way with the equatorward momentum fluxes, suggesting any break in the troughing will be brief before the next round of offshore height rises.

 

 

I think you are misreading the situation for the PNW.   

 

I don't think the troughing will be dominant or deep after the weekend system.   Maybe through August and into September.    This kind of troughing during the first half of July makes that even more likely.   Just the way it works here.   Maybe you are seeing signs of troughing that will end up farther north and west than what is coming up?  And I am not saying it will be ridgy and hot either.   

 

Going to bed... no need to debate.   I stated my opinion.   We will see what happens.

[Phil]

Nice dAAMt spike on the 00z ECMWF. Will make Jesse/Jim happy in the long run, should the run verify.