Preliminary Discussion For Upcoming 2016-2017 Fall and Winter Season

[Niko]

I'm hearing the new EURO data is indicating a pocket of real cold centered in the Plains, with an active storm track up the OV with near avg temps the farther east you go.  Could be an active southern storm track that cuts up the Midwest/OV/Lakes.   

[Tom]

Saw this map from the Predictive Ocean Atmosphere Model for Australia (POAMA)...would be nice for many if this pans out!  This is a new model along within the NMME group.

 

[OKwx2k4]

There's more concensus with the weather models this year than I've seen in a very long time. Looking like cold and fun for all!

[Tom]

Anybody know what the QBO is looking like right now???

[OKwx2k4]

It appears to be neutral going positive if I have read it correctly.

[clintbeed1993]

A negative NAO winter would be really nice.  Haven't had a solid one for awhile.

[OKwx2k4]

If my reading is correct a +QBO should be a friend rather than a foe for most here. Favors better cold over the central, lakes and Southeast regions much like my analogs and some of the analogs seasonal maps have indicated.

[Tom]

It appears to be neutral going positive if I have read it correctly.

Here are Nov-Jan analogs of a +QBO...

 

 

 

vs...

 

-QBO

 

[jaster220]

Anybody know what the QBO is looking like right now???

It appears to be neutral going positive if I have read it correctly.

If my reading is correct a +QBO should be a friend rather than a foe for most here. Favors better cold over the central, lakes and Southeast regions much like my analogs and some of the analogs seasonal maps have indicated.

 

Also important is Westerly or Easterly phase(s). Not necessarily for today, but during our upcoming winter. The phase cycle runs approx. 28-29 months.

 

Per Wiki:

Effects[edit]

Effects of the QBO include mixing of stratospheric ozone by the secondary circulation caused by the QBO, modification of monsoon precipitation, and an influence on stratospheric circulation in northern hemisphere winter (mediated partly by a change in the frequency of sudden stratospheric warmings). Westward phases of the QBO often coincide with more sudden stratospheric warmings, a weaker Atlantic jet stream and cold winters in Northern Europe and eastern USA whereas eastward phases of the QBO often coincide with mild winters in eastern USA and a strong Atlantic jet stream with mild, wet stormy winters in northern Europe (Ebdon 1975).

[OKwx2k4]

Also important is Westerly or Easterly phase(s). Not necessarily for today, but during our upcoming winter. The phase cycle runs approx. 28-29 months.

 

Per Wiki: Effects[edit]

Effects of the QBO include mixing of stratospheric ozone by the secondary circulation caused by the QBO, modification of monsoon precipitation, and an influence on stratospheric circulation in northern hemisphere winter (mediated partly by a change in the frequency of sudden stratospheric warmings). Westward phases of the QBO often coincide with more sudden stratospheric warmings, a weaker Atlantic jet stream and cold winters in Northern Europe and eastern USA whereas eastward phases of the QBO often coincide with mild winters in eastern USA and a strong Atlantic jet stream with mild, wet stormy winters in northern Europe (Ebdon 1975).

Sorry. I don't use the directions when doing the QBO. It confuses me sometimes but positive is West if not mistaken.

[OKwx2k4]

Also @Jaster, the phase cycle lasts 28-29 months but we just had a strange occurrence where the QBO flipped mid-cycle so it's going to be a little different than normal this year.

[OKwx2k4]

Also, just want to add that the yearly arctic ice minimum has been reached and if it holds at 9/7 would be the earliest minimum on record.

[jaster220]

Here are Nov-Jan analogs of a +QBO...

 

 

 

vs...

 

-QBO

 

 

Tom, is that against the selected analog seasons, or just all seasons combined since the QBO has been tracked? Cuz it would seem to be the opposite of the Wiki statement that a Westerly (+QBO) favors cold in the eastern US. 

 

Also, that's more for autumn months, do you have that for say Dec thru Mar?

[jaster220]

If my reading is correct a +QBO should be a friend rather than a foe for most here. Favors better cold over the central, lakes and Southeast regions much like my analogs and some of the analogs seasonal maps have indicated.

 

Well, I'm still learning on the QBO but your statement would seem to be on target based on Tom's images. Looks to me like -QBO would push the cold air too far east and thus focus the storms more along the E. coast. 

 

Oh, and I wasn't aware of a recent flip "mid cycle" as you put it. Hoping this has favorable results for us. Overall I still think the QBO is more of an enhancer vs driver wrt our winter set-up. While we do want a favorable phase, it's not like the QBO can trump a strong Nino/Nina driver. I would say that it may be more heavily weighted in La-nada conditions. Would be interesting to see some graphic comparisons of the influence during differing ENSO states. 

[OKwx2k4]

Well, I'm still learning on the QBO but your statement would seem to be on target based on Tom's images. Looks to me like -QBO would push the cold air too far east and thus focus the storms more along the E. coast.

 

Oh, and I wasn't aware of a recent flip "mid cycle" as you put it. Hoping this has favorable results for us. Overall I still think the QBO is more of an enhancer vs driver wrt our winter set-up. While we do want a favorable phase, it's not like the QBO can trump a strong Nino/Nina driver. I would say that it may be more heavily weighted in La-nada conditions. Would be interesting to see some graphic comparisons of the influence during differing ENSO states.

I'll try to find some maps sometime today or tomorrow. I believe there are some significant differences even among enso types but I'm not sure how they work. Some pretty compelling evidence for why we don't want a -qbo would be seen in February as the Nino was dying out really rapidly. All the cold that came down in late winter got shoved off the east coast while the rest of the country baked. Textbook in my opinion. It also contributed directly to the ++AO all winter.

[jaster220]

I'll try to find some maps sometime today or tomorrow. I believe there are some significant differences even among enso types but I'm not sure how they work. Some pretty compelling evidence for why we don't want a -qbo would be seen in February as the Nino was dying out really rapidly. All the cold that came down in late winter got shoved off the east coast while the rest of the country baked. Textbook in my opinion. It also contributed directly to the ++AO all winter.

 

Somehow, my region is shown below normal temps for both phases in Tom's graphics. That is why I asked him if those are only for a selected group of seasons? February was actually my most wintry month with a storm that narrowly missed giving Marshall it's 2nd 12" storm of the season so I can't really say the -QBO hurt me but yeah, the cold was not plunging straight down the plains to deliver the same for your back yard. Kudos for hanging in there when late winter failed to deliver, some would've lost it but you stayed cool. 

[OKwx2k4]

Somehow, my region is shown below normal temps for both phases in Tom's graphics. That is why I asked him if those are only for a selected group of seasons? February was actually my most wintry month with a storm that narrowly missed giving Marshall it's 2nd 12" storm of the season so I can't really say the -QBO hurt me but yeah, the cold was not plunging straight down the plains to deliver the same for your back yard. Kudos for hanging in there when late winter failed to deliver, some would've lost it but you stayed cool.

Yeah, I made a generalized statement there. Not specifically shoved off the east coast but it may as well have been from where I was sitting. Lol. Even 150 miles away in Northeast Arkansas got hammered with a 12+ storm last year. The only 2 areas where I wanted to lose my cool last year was after I called off my winter as a bust in late December and early January, there were a couple of posters who just wouldn't let it go. It got annoying really fast. Not only did I have to sit here and bake to death with no snow whatsoever in my favorite season but they just kept piling it on. But you win some and lose some.

 

The -QBO isn't nearly as much of a death sentence above 40N in a winter like last year as it is for me down here at 35N. You all can even capitalize in times of super positive AO where I simply cannot. If I could find a link to some images that explain the -QBO in all phases better than I can but I know that it's what ruined the majority of my forecast last year. It also stopped the SSW event from propagating cold to the surface. We should be peaking positive right at the end of December this year so it should be no problem.

[Tom]

Tom, is that against the selected analog seasons, or just all seasons combined since the QBO has been tracked? Cuz it would seem to be the opposite of the Wiki statement that a Westerly (+QBO) favors cold in the eastern US. 

 

Also, that's more for autumn months, do you have that for say Dec thru Mar?

I saw these maps from a met who used a specific set of analogs and used those for data.  I believe he had similar analog years as we are discussing on this board.

[jaster220]

I saw these maps from a met who used a specific set of analogs and used those for data.  I believe he had similar analog years as we are discussing on this board.

 

Thanks, that makes a lot more sense then how (why) both seem to be pretty darn favorable for SMI. Interestingly, having just read that historical paper on the severe extremes of winter 1887-88, it kinda lines up with both of those QBO maps as well as JB's (oops, I mean WxBell's) early winter call. 1888 featured an early winter in the (upper) plains peaking if you will with the Jan 11-13 severe bliz and then progressed east throughout winter to the point where New York and Southern New England had their massive bliz exactly 2 months later in mid-March. This kind of scenario also aligns well with 1977-78 except of course the first Mega-bliz (Okwx's MOAB) hit the OHV followed by the Feb 5th monster in SNE. I don't have data handy for Marshall from 1887-88 but If we could cherry pick I'd take a 1977-78 repeat .

[jaster220]

Yeah, I made a generalized statement there. Not specifically shoved off the east coast but it may as well have been from where I was sitting. Lol. Even 150 miles away in Northeast Arkansas got hammered with a 12+ storm last year. The only 2 areas where I wanted to lose my cool last year was after I called off my winter as a bust in late December and early January, there were a couple of posters who just wouldn't let it go. It got annoying really fast. Not only did I have to sit here and bake to death with no snow whatsoever in my favorite season but they just kept piling it on. But you win some and lose some.

 

The -QBO isn't nearly as much of a death sentence above 40N in a winter like last year as it is for me down here at 35N. You all can even capitalize in times of super positive AO where I simply cannot. If I could find a link to some images that explain the -QBO in all phases better than I can but I know that it's what ruined the majority of my forecast last year. It also stopped the SSW event from propagating cold to the surface. We should be peaking positive right at the end of December this year so it should be no problem.

 

True that. Aside from the Jan Appalachian and East Coast storm, most folks south of that latitude ended up with paltry snowfall last winter. I feel that I really lucked out beating my avg by nearly 8" (a solid 15% above normal) during a STRONG Nino! Proof we in SMI are living in magical times. I believe the last time that happened was '72-73 when a Big Dog March storm dropped 18-20" around here closing highways and such. 

[Tom]

Who's dreaming of Snow???  Yellowstone National Park got their dose of white gold yesterday...Summer time snow!

 

 

[Tom]

Saw a met post this new UKMET GPC seasonal run.  Another very similar model run indicating a similar pattern one would expect during a La Nada/Blob influence.  This map is showing a cold southern Plains/Midwest/Lakes/OV/EC and an active southern stream with above normal precip in the same regions.

 

 

 

 

[Jaycee]

So far all I've heard is cold plains, south storm track, active east coast. Obviously a familiar tune to those of us in the Central Plains. I'm not overly familiar with the El Nino/La Nina, but what would it take to get another year like 2009-2010? Is it even plausible at this point?

[jaster220]

Correct my memory if I'm wrong, but wasn't 09-10 the Nino enso that was trumped (to the plains and lakes benefit) by a Mega Neg NAO? If correct, I wouldn't expect that to repeat any time soon. Actually, that one leaves me feeling we have an outstanding "IOU" and some season will come along to balance 2009-10 out.  For example, we will have a season that all signs point towards greatness, only to be shafted by some anomalous driver that results in a "Nino like" outcome. Call me paranoid if you want. 

[Tom]

The record -NAO during the winter of 2009-10 was certainly influencing the weather pattern.  Here is an article about the -NAO:

 

http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2011GL046786/full

[jaster220]

The record -NAO during the winter of 2009-10 was certainly influencing the weather pattern.  Here is an article about the -NAO:

 

http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2011GL046786/full

 

excerpt:

 

4. Discussion

[17] The origin and predictability of the extremely negative phase of the NAO during the winter of 2009/10 have been explored by means of numerical experimentation. Different possible forcing mechanisms have been tested such as El Niño, the QBO, and reduced solar insolation. However, none of the forcings considered in this study was able to reproduce the negative phase of the NAO, especially in terms of its magnitude. The results of this study, therefore, support the hypothesis that both the development and persistence of negative NAO phase resulted from internal atmospheric dynamical processes. This may explain why most operational seasonal forecasting systems had problems in predicting the negative NAO winter when started in late autumn (e.g., forecasts issued in October and November 2009). The results of this study suggest that internal atmospheric dynamics are an important source of low-frequency atmospheric interannual variability [see also James and James, 1989] including extreme atmospheric circulation anomalies. Furthermore, this study suggests that internal atmospheric dynamics are able to produce extremely persistent atmospheric circulation anomalies which are associated with substantial extended-range predictive skill. From a dynamical point of view it will be interesting to better understand the processes responsible for the persistence of the negative NAO throughout most of the 2009/10 winter.

 

Translation "Tbh, we don't know what the hell happened?" 

[Tom]

excerpt:

 

4. Discussion

[17] The origin and predictability of the extremely negative phase of the NAO during the winter of 2009/10 have been explored by means of numerical experimentation. Different possible forcing mechanisms have been tested such as El Niño, the QBO, and reduced solar insolation. However, none of the forcings considered in this study was able to reproduce the negative phase of the NAO, especially in terms of its magnitude. The results of this study, therefore, support the hypothesis that both the development and persistence of negative NAO phase resulted from internal atmospheric dynamical processes. This may explain why most operational seasonal forecasting systems had problems in predicting the negative NAO winter when started in late autumn (e.g., forecasts issued in October and November 2009). The results of this study suggest that internal atmospheric dynamics are an important source of low-frequency atmospheric interannual variability [see also James and James, 1989] including extreme atmospheric circulation anomalies. Furthermore, this study suggests that internal atmospheric dynamics are able to produce extremely persistent atmospheric circulation anomalies which are associated with substantial extended-range predictive skill. From a dynamical point of view it will be interesting to better understand the processes responsible for the persistence of the negative NAO throughout most of the 2009/10 winter.

 

Translation "Tbh, we don't know what the hell happened?" 

ROTFL!  That's exactly what it means in layman terms.  Speaking of the NAO, the pattern in the stratosphere above Greenland and parts of the Arctic are intriguing.  What could this mean for us later in the season???

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/intraseasonal/temp30anim.gif

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/intraseasonal/temp10anim.gif

 

 

Speaking of these developments, along with various other long range forecasting techniques I use, there are some massive changes about to happen over the next 10 days, especially over N.A.

 

I was on Gary Lezak's blog today and he is seeing what I'm seeing in the longer range to close out September.  Autumn may be rolling in quickly for a lot of us as we approach October right as the new LRC starts developing.

[Jaycee]

Thanks fellas. That year was remarkable for us out here. We had upwards of 2' on the ground for months. Couldn't have asked for a better year. Obviously that year spoiled us to no end, but it has been 7 years since (insane to even think about), and we haven't received a thing. I've always wondered if something like that would ever be possible again, sure doesn't sound like it. I just hope we can get above average for once, but I think most of us out here are so exhausted from winter storms that we have all lost a lot of our hope to see it. Obviously can't say it wont happen, it's September, but sounds more to me like Great Lakes/Ohio Valley and the East Coast will be the winners this winter.

[Niko]

 

I'm liking what I am seeing.   

[james1976]

Tom,i was just gonna say. Seems to be a lot of signs pointing to a pattern change with the new LRC kicking in. Exciting times ahead.

[james1976]

Tom, where on Lezak's blog did you see that?

[james1976]

 

I'm liking what I am seeing.

Looks like a clipper pattern ☺

[jaster220]

ROTFL!  That's exactly what it means in layman terms.  Speaking of the NAO, the pattern in the stratosphere above Greenland and parts of the Arctic are intriguing.  What could this mean for us later in the season???

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/intraseasonal/temp30anim.gif

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/intraseasonal/temp10anim.gif

 

 

Speaking of these developments, along with various other long range forecasting techniques I use, there are some massive changes about to happen over the next 10 days, especially over N.A.

 

I was on Gary Lezak's blog today and he is seeing what I'm seeing in the longer range to close out September.  Autumn may be rolling in quickly for a lot of us as we approach October right as the new LRC starts developing.

 

Tom,i was just gonna say. Seems to be a lot of signs pointing to a pattern change with the new LRC kicking in. Exciting times ahead.

 

That's at 10 hPa. Wonder if that's the recent flip in the QBO showing up?? Usually begins up top and slowly propogates to the lower levels of the atmosphere. SSW events are kinda like hitting the fast-forward button on the QBO (if I'm understanding it correctly). 

[jaster220]

Looks like a clipper pattern ☺

 

Is that a "smiley" face?  Cant tell. Of course clippers that ride the Polar stream will come from the NW but it really shows an active sub-tropical jet bringing moist systems from the SW. Not a dry suppressed pattern at all. With mby @ ground zero in 2013-14 I didn't pay too close attention to the fact that those further west like some of you in this forum weren't getting nearly as much out of each system. Need them to start strong in Nebraska and continue east like the Superbowl Sunday (GHD-2) storm did in 2015. I think we all did great on that one. I think Omaha had like 14" and all the way to Detroit with 16 or 17". You don't see that everyday. Dec 2000 was the last one before that comes to mind. What Skilling at the time called a "once in 50 yr storm".

[james1976]

Is that a "smiley" face? Cant tell. Of course clippers that ride the Polar stream will come from the NW but it really shows an active sub-tropical jet bringing moist systems from the SW. Not a dry suppressed pattern at all. With mby @ ground zero in 2013-14 I didn't pay too close attention to the fact that those further west like some of you in this forum weren't getting nearly as much out of each system. Need them to start strong in Nebraska and continue east like the Superbowl Sunday (GHD-2) storm did in 2015. I think we all did great on that one. I think Omaha had like 14" and all the way to Detroit with 16 or 17". You don't see that everyday. Dec 2000 was the last one before that comes to mind. What Skilling at the time called a "once in 50 yr storm".

Yup smiley face! 13-14 was a clipper parade here in Iowa. Ended with 60". Season avg is 35".

[jaster220]

Stumbled on this in the archives of a local forum. This guy moved here from the East Coast so he was curious and did some really good wx detective work.

 

Went and researched every Oct going back to 1948 and found an amazing stat for this area.

Whenever this area has seen a rainy Oct the following winter (in all but 6 cases) saw above average snows the following winter!
Now here is the years in which we didnt:  1955=NINA, 1967=NINA, 1988=NINA, 1990, 1991=Strong Nino, 1995=NINA

What else is somewhat intresting is that during the years we didnt go above Oct rain climo, areas south of here saw below normal Oct or Fall precip. 4 of those winters were normal and 2 slightly below normal. Basically it is important it seems to have good rains south to sw of here to Tx/W.Gulf coast. For whatever reason 1990 was the exception to the rule allowing that it was a warm fall across the nation as a whole especially Sept and Nov. 

 

Whenever we have had a drier Oct the odd's do strongly favor below normal winter snows. ALL of our top 5 least snowiest winters have all happened following a dry Oct! (Like above though there are a couple of exceptions)

Normal Oct precip has good odd's for a snowy winter as well fyi but we really want to see a rainy October, then it's "game on" for winter!

 

[Tom]

Tom, where on Lezak's blog did you see that?

I subscribe to his Weather2020 blog...

[OKwx2k4]

Jaster, what's even better is that NONE of those bad years are in my analogs! Everybody has posted some really good stuff today. I really don't have much to add but I like it!

[OKwx2k4]

I like the conclusion about '09-'10. Lol. That one had me laughing pretty hard. It's like "Wtf? I dunno man, but it sure snowed a lot." Lol. Same in 2010-11. There isn't really anything that you can say made that happen but I sure liked it.

[OKwx2k4]

Must be a sign of the winter to come, Oklahoma and Ohio State have only played football against each other twice prior to Saturday. September 1983 and September 1977. Haha. :-)