Preliminary Discussion For Upcoming 2016-2017 Fall and Winter Season

[OKwx2k4]

Pretty sure those are the Jan-Feb dates, so that'd be '99-00 not December of 2000. I do like '98-99 though as following that last super Nino before this one. It was mentioned in another forum that autumns transitioning into a Nina state usually produce some strong storm systems and Nov '98 mega cyclone come to memory. Was living in S. Bend at the time and remember how there were many shingles torn off buildings. Only time I've seen that from a SLP vs. a severe T-storm.

 

Edit: Ok, my bad. I see they covered every base lol, they've got 1999, 2000, & 2001. For the GL's '99-00 was not a very good winter at all

It was definitely December 2000 for the double whammy ice storms. They're still almost as etched in my memory as the 2009 storm.

 

Anyway, I ran all of those through temp analogs and they are so random it's ridiculous. Fun researching though.

[Tom]

@Tom, good stuff in Cohen's blog. What he's saying is historically accurate to the best of my knowledge. This year, as I'm thinking about it now, does sort of have an '07 kind of feel to it. If I factor it into my analogs it really is a good fit with the NW to SE cold profile I have for winter too. Definitely giving it some study and thought. Some cold Decembers and a few fast starting winters in your reanalysis image you posted. I like 2000 (epic December. Snowstorm, and 2 ice storms a week apart.) and 2001 (Flurries down here on Oct 16th, 2001) pretty well. Cold Octobers with calm November's followed by wild Decembers. Will have to match them up later and see where they fit. The rest of the years I'm not sure about. Pretty random in my opinion. Good stuff this morning though. Got my mind working again for sure.

12z GFS snowfall forecast for Asia....hmmmm, might Dr. Cohen be onto something????

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016092012/gfs_asnow_asia_41.png

[jaster220]

Going to attempt to answer my own question here.

 

Typical La Nina winter pattern:

 

 

 

vs typical La Nada winter pattern:

 

 

 

 

So, with La Nina the GL's are "wet" but not typically cold as the frigid air masses favor west of us (except ofc we had Jan of '99), whereas with La Nada the cold is delivered but the "wet" region is suppressed south indicating more average snowfall might be expected.

 

If 2007-08 was a La Nina season I could see how that would jive with the map. I vaguely remember GRR's winter outlook stating that we would have above normal precip but it was a 50/50 chance that it could be rain vs snow. As we all know we ended up getting a lot of it in the form of snow, though without the bitter cold temps that characterized 2013-14.

 

I think a weak Nina could bring the best of both enso worlds tbh, thus an extension eastward of the frigid stuff while scoring the "wetness" normally associated with the full on Nina. Looks like a good set-up in store for our region.    

[Niko]

Going to attempt to answer my own question here.

 

Typical La Nina winter pattern:

 

Typical La Nina winter pattern.png

 

vs typical La Nada winter pattern:

 

enso-neutral winter pattern.jpg

 

 

So, with La Nina the GL's are "wet" but not typically cold as the frigid air masses favor west of us (except ofc we had Jan of '99), whereas with La Nada the cold is delivered but the "wet" region is suppressed south indicating more average snowfall might be expected.

 

If 2007-08 was a La Nina season I could see how that would jive with the map. I vaguely remember GRR's winter outlook stating that we would have above normal precip but it was a 50/50 chance that it could be rain vs snow. As we all know we ended up getting a lot of it in the form of snow, though without the bitter cold temps that characterized 2013-14.

 

I think a weak Nina could bring the best of both enso worlds tbh, thus an extension eastward of the frigid stuff while scoring the "wetness" normally associated with the full on Nina. Looks like a good set-up in store for our region.   

Lets hope so!

[Niko]

I would like for the weather pattern to get active and cold on or after ThanksGiving and last throughout the winter season. I do want some cool shots during October, but not too extreme. I like to save the best for later when the true winter months are here.

[Niko]

Unbelievable!!

 

 

http://videowall.accuweather.com/detail/videos/trending-now/video/5131635138001/arctic-ice-shrinks-to-second-lowest-level-on-record?autoStart=true

[jaster220]

As a follow-up to my post above and thinking back (almost a decade now) while we had a ton of action and snowstorms abounded during '07-08 we also had rapid melt-down between systems. Not quite to the degree of this past record El Nino season, but not far behind LOL. 2008-09 did a whole lot better in sustained snowcover, and of course 2013-14 is the champ at least from my area east to Detroit where deep snowcover records were off the charts for this area! 

 

Sticking with these recent seasons, a middle of the road scenario approximates 2008-09 which is a very close 2nd place to 2013-14 with less extreme temps though some more of that may be in play thanks to the low sea ice departure and items mentioned by Dr. Cohen

 

One thing's for certain, we deserve a December like 2008. That one rocked in Marshall

[Jaycee]

La Nada really holds true to its name around winter time here. 2008-2009 and 2013-2014 were both years we had

 

I know this is all a shot in the dark and nothing is worth taking too seriously, but what would you guys expect if you had to guess at this point what this winter will be like out here in the Central Plains, versus how it will go in your area?

[Madtown]

Scared by all the hype of a big winter...thinking average snow and cold spells but not sustained. Hope I'm wrong!

[james1976]

As a follow-up to my post above and thinking back (almost a decade now) while we had a ton of action and snowstorms abounded during '07-08 we also had rapid melt-down between systems. Not quite to the degree of this past record El Nino season, but not far behind LOL. 2008-09 did a whole lot better in sustained snowcover, and of course 2013-14 is the champ at least from my area east to Detroit where deep snowcover records were off the charts for this area! 

 

Sticking with these recent seasons, a middle of the road scenario approximates 2008-09 which is a very close 2nd place to 2013-14 with less extreme temps though some more of that may be in play thanks to the low sea ice departure and items mentioned by Dr. Cohen

 

One thing's for certain, we deserve a December like 2008. That one rocked in Marshall

13-14 was the greatest winter that I can remember for my area as well.

[OKwx2k4]

I loved 13-14. Not so much statistically or even snowfall wise but just that my area capitalized on some of the worst possible setups for snow. While you all would get hammered one week after another, I would be sitting under SW flow and the raging jet would bring snow as wave after wave ejected out of the southwest.

[jaster220]

 

 

Notice the wording "more typical of November". That's a great sign for us down the road. Another sign that when the flip happens, it's going to be potentially drastic for some areas. Personally I'd rather ease into winter conditions. We got the Denver treatment several times last winter and I'm not a fan of snowstorms on warm ground, it just makes a mess and your snow's gone in a blink.

[Niko]

Believe it or not, most people I asked yesterday told me that Long Range Forecasting is a bunch of crap. I was told that these meteorologists don't know what the next day will bring, let alone 3 months down the road. I explained to them that they go by computer models and try to forecast in that manner. I was told back... Quote ....."without them computer models, these fools would be lost and fired by the weather depts."

 

 

http://www.cnn.com/2016/08/15/health/old-farmers-almanac-weather-prediction-accuracy/

[OKwx2k4]

SST comparison

 

2013 Sept-19

 

2016 Sept-19

 

 

I like what I see out of these comparisons.

[clintbeed1993]

We deserve an above average winter for snowfall in Nebraska this year.  It has been years since we've had a winter to write home about.  This decade better start delivering!  I have heard that the winters coming out of a strong el nino tend to be bears.  I have a good feeling about this year.  Eventually mother nature has to even out right?

[clintbeed1993]

Last winter was tough for most everyone on this forum, and I know it seems Nebraska had about the best of anybody.  It really wasn't that great though.  With the exception of the monster blizzard in February, we had very little.  It was frustrating because Nebraska was easily in the best spot for precipitation trends.  We had a very wet winter.  It's always something around here though, and just when we actually had a great storm track we didn't have cold air to work with.  It was like the opposite of 13/14 where we had so much cold air but no precipitation to be found.  I would like to see another winter where the temps are around average instead of super cold or super warm.  Average temps would be cold enough for snow but wouldn't suppress the storm track or cause all our storms to be cold rain.  A guy can dream...

[OKwx2k4]

Last winter was tough for most everyone on this forum, and I know it seems Nebraska had about the best of anybody. It really wasn't that great though. With the exception of the monster blizzard in February, we had very little. It was frustrating because Nebraska was easily in the best spot for precipitation trends. We had a very wet winter. It's always something around here though, and just when we actually had a great storm track we didn't have cold air to work with. It was like the opposite of 13/14 where we had so much cold air but no precipitation to be found. I would like to see another winter where the temps are around average instead of super cold or super warm. Average temps would be cold enough for snow but wouldn't suppress the storm track or cause all our storms to be cold rain. A guy can dream...

Early season and very late season may be prime time for you this year. I do think you'll have to deal with some excruciating dry cold shots in the middle though. My top 2 analogs are pretty much guarantees of that. 2013 and 1983 are still very much the front runners of the pack at this time. However, you put 2013 with any kind of -NAO/AO and you have a top 3 winter here instead of a 15th place one. I think it's going to be a great season.

[OKwx2k4]

I found this post interesting out of the west La Niña thread on this site.

 

Jim and others have noted the unusually high surface pressure over the NE Pacific this past summer. This is backed up by the NPI (North Pacific Index), which recorded monthly readings of 1017.59, 1020.14, and 1018.83 in June, July, and August respectively.

 

What do those numbers mean?

 

Combined, the NPI was the highest for any summer on record (back to 1900). The closest was 1915.

 

The June number was highest since 1998. The July number was the highest since 1922. The August number was the highest since 1938.

I've read about the NPI and the N PAC warm mode in the past. This is why the year 1915-16 made my list of analogs. It took me a great bit of digging to find the why behind the what and then would have been much too difficult to explain. I think this suffices as an explanation that is more understandable than what I could've typed up. So now we have repeat confirmation of 1983-84, 2013-14, and 1915-16. Great stuff to see.

 

I will do a correctly weighted analog package towards the first week of October to compare to the original analogs I prepared a few weeks ago. As of now though, looking colder over the central US than what I may have had previously. Most likely hugging the Rockies and keeping the east coast warm and wet.

[OKwx2k4]

Just for fun I created this map out of the 20 lowest Atlantic ACE years. I then removed the 8 in the bottom 20 which were El Niños, leaving behind the 12 years you see represented here. I used this technique as a part of another analog group I did back in 2013 and it worked quite remarkably. More cold options on the table for winter to add to those we know already.

 

Current Atlantic ACE is 48.

 

 

I will do an ACE match for the Pacific and see what comes of it as well.

[OKwx2k4]

Out of 20 selected years for Pacific ACE, using the 10 above and 10 below the current year's ACE of 162 and then subtracting El Niño years, I'm left with a sample size of 8 years. I'm finding a very similar correlation as my last post with location of the coldest anomalies and, to a degree, the intensity of said anomalies.

 

[OKwx2k4]

Here is a analog forecast for this Autumn...

 

Hey Tom, I think we're figuring out what this map is now. It looks pretty accurate to me.

[NEJeremy]

Scared by all the hype of a big winter...thinking average snow and cold spells but not sustained. Hope I'm wrong!

seems like there is always hype for a big winter on this forum

[Tom]

This video might get you geared up for Winter and itching for that first big snow...

 

https://weather.com/storms/winter/news/early-fall-major-snowstorms-recent-history

[Tom]

This cold season is predicted to have arctic blocking which we haven't had in recent years.  We have to go back to middle of the 2010-2011 season when blocking developed.  The year before that there was record blocking when Winter took off.  We all know what happened there.  So I did some digging and looked back into the Archives and dug up the AO/NAIO indices back in Sept/Oct/Nov of the 2009-2010 season.  

Here are the AO/NAO indices respectively...

 

Sept AO:

 

2009 9 15 -1.279
2009 9 16 -0.527
2009 9 17 0.361
2009 9 18 0.217
2009 9 19 0.335
2009 9 20 0.952
2009 9 21 1.277
2009 9 22 1.724
2009 9 23 1.967
2009 9 24 2.113
2009 9 25 2.614
2009 9 26 3.094
2009 9 27 2.695
2009 9 28 1.586
2009 9 29 0.330
2009 9 30 -0.370

 

Sept NAO:

 

2009 9 15 -0.129
2009 9 16 0.450
2009 9 17 0.959
2009 9 18 0.906
2009 9 19 0.910
2009 9 20 1.276
2009 9 21 1.397
2009 9 22 1.864
2009 9 23 2.023
2009 9 24 1.603
2009 9 25 1.505
2009 9 26 1.438
2009 9 27 0.813
2009 9 28 -0.116
2009 9 29 -0.776
2009 9 30 -1.140

 

Note, both NAO/AO were pretty much sky high for the second half of September.  Thus far, this month, the AO has been positive.  While the NAO has been predominantly positive this month, it is tanking negative as we speak and then level off as we head into October.

 

Now, taking a look at the AO/NAO for October back in 2009, we see a change...

 

AO:

 

2009 10 1 -0.409
2009 10 2 -0.346
2009 10 3 -0.254
2009 10 4 -0.216
2009 10 5 -0.357
2009 10 6 -0.659
2009 10 7 -1.285
2009 10 8 -2.050
2009 10 9 -2.473
2009 10 10 -2.574
2009 10 11 -2.666
2009 10 12 -1.975
2009 10 13 -1.024
2009 10 14 -0.591
2009 10 15 -0.768
2009 10 16 -0.803
2009 10 17 -0.517
2009 10 18 -0.242
2009 10 19 -0.843
2009 10 20 -1.979
2009 10 21 -2.922
2009 10 22 -3.415
2009 10 23 -3.251
2009 10 24 -2.844
2009 10 25 -2.475
2009 10 26 -1.812
2009 10 27 -1.678
2009 10 28 -2.101
2009 10 29 -2.412
2009 10 30 -1.479
2009 10 31 0.379

 

NAO:  

 

2009 10 1 -1.366
2009 10 2 -1.521
2009 10 3 -1.359
2009 10 4 -0.835
2009 10 5 -0.543
2009 10 6 -0.539
2009 10 7 -0.798
2009 10 8 -1.123
2009 10 9 -1.210
2009 10 10 -1.068
2009 10 11 -0.830
2009 10 12 -0.582
2009 10 13 -0.251
2009 10 14 -0.044
2009 10 15 -0.132
2009 10 16 -0.317
2009 10 17 0.000
2009 10 18 0.199
2009 10 19 0.326
2009 10 20 0.249
2009 10 21 -0.005
2009 10 22 -0.408
2009 10 23 -0.640
2009 10 24 -0.623
2009 10 25 -0.338
2009 10 26 -0.080
2009 10 27 -0.185
2009 10 28 -0.537
2009 10 29 -0.361
2009 10 30 -0.037
2009 10 31 0.369

 

Clearly, you can see high latitude blocking dominated the pattern in October just as the new LRC developed.  Moving forward, where can we expect the NAO/AO to go for October???

 

Well, let's see how the 10mb/30mb are behaving.  We are beginning to see warming poke into the Arctic regions at 30mb but not just yet at 10mb.

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/intraseasonal/temp30anim.gif

 

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/intraseasonal/temp10anim.gif''

 

 

 

We can see this is accurate as the graphic below showing 30mb temps running above normal...

 

http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/clisys/STRAT/gif/pole30_nh.gif

 

 

10mb near normall...

 

http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/clisys/STRAT/gif/pole10_nh.gif

 

 

Where do we see October trending for this year???  Here is the latest run from the CFSv2 for October...blocking near AK/Arctic and slightly near Greenland.  My guess is we will see more of a -AO develop in October and mainly a neutral to slightly below -NAO at times.  That's just an educated guess so we'll have to see how it all plays out.

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/monthly/images/CFSv2.z700.20160923.201610.gif

[Tom]

TWC's Winter Outlook....say what????  Scratching my head as I can't think of how, in any way, this could be possible....

 

https://weather.com/storms/winter/news/winter-outlook-2016-2017-twc

[james1976]

I like that you put me in the cold bullseye!

[OKwx2k4]

TWC's Winter Outlook....say what???? Scratching my head as I can't think of how, in any way, this could be possible....

 

https://weather.com/storms/winter/news/winter-outlook-2016-2017-twc

They have about an 80 percent chance of being wrong in my opinion. I've never seen TWC or the CPC hit a correlation beyond random chance.

[OKwx2k4]

Also, Tom, very great research on the AO and NAO.

[jaster220]

SST comparison

 

2013 Sept-19

anomnight.9.19.2013.gif

 

2016 Sept-19

 

anomnight.9.19.2016.gif

 

I like what I see out of these comparisons.

 

in 2013 the GL's were on fire but now they vanished!! There's a minor difference. Seriously though, the warmer N. Atlantic is the real thing that stands out to me.

 

TWC's Winter Outlook....say what????  Scratching my head as I can't think of how, in any way, this could be possible....

 

https://weather.com/storms/winter/news/winter-outlook-2016-2017-twc

 

save that map for later..

[OKwx2k4]

in 2013 the GL's were on fire but now they vanished!! There's a minor difference. Seriously though, the warmer N. Atlantic is the real thing that stands out to me.

 

Yeah. I really thought the lakes were going to be quite hot again myself but I guess not. The warmer North Atlantic should start working to produce a block over parts of the NE US or just offshore. Even if it's just to keep the NAO from getting too positive, that's a great advantage. Could anyone imagine what 2013 would have been like with a -NAO? Yikes!

[Thunder98]

TWC's Winter Outlook....say what????  Scratching my head as I can't think of how, in any way, this could be possible....

 

https://weather.com/storms/winter/news/winter-outlook-2016-2017-twc

 

TWC is very warm bias.

[OKwx2k4]

 

Snow map for fun.

[jaster220]

Those 2 on the btm? Now that would be krazy early for the lwr lakes! 1989 here we come!

[jaster220]

Yeah. I really thought the lakes were going to be quite hot again myself but I guess not. The warmer North Atlantic should start working to produce a block over parts of the NE US or just offshore. Even if it's just to keep the NAO from getting too positive, that's a great advantage. Could anyone imagine what 2013 would have been like with a -NAO? Yikes!

 

LOL. That part of my post was a joke (because you couldn't see the GL's on the 2nd map). 

 

As I remember, the EPO was the driver delivering the record season in 2013-14. Made up nicely for the lack of traditional requirements for cold. 

[Niko]

Its been a while since I saw maps like this. The "Good Old Snow Maps", tbh, I simply cannot wait to track our first major winterstorm of the season and knowing that it will hammer your area in the coming days, along with arctic air in place. Ahhhhh, the beauty of winter.

[jaster220]

Its been a while since I saw maps like this. The "Good Old Snow Maps", tbh, I simply cannot wait to track our first major winterstorm of the season and knowing that it will hammer your area in the coming days, along with arctic air in place. Ahhhhh, the beauty of winter.

 

That's saying a lot coming from you Niko. Macomb is notoriously one of the least snowy parts of our state. Have you been there long? 2 of the last 3 winters delivering big storms and deep snow to that region is rare air. How'd you finish last season? Do you measure snowfall yourself?

[Niko]

That's saying a lot coming from you Niko. Macomb is notoriously one of the least snowy parts of our state. Have you been there long? 2 of the last 3 winters delivering big storms and deep snow to that region is rare air. How'd you finish last season? Do you measure snowfall yourself?

Detroit's average winter season snowfall runs at 44.1" and Macomb is a good 45 minutes north of the city. Its a suburban area, which tends to be colder and more snowier. I don't think Detroit is the least snowy part of the state because the average snowfall is pretty decent, compare to other parts south of Detroit, i.e, Monroe county which is near the Ohio border. I usually average more snow than Detroit per winter season and colder temps as well. Did not check statistics, but I am sure the average snowfall is higher in Macomb, along with lower avarage high and low temps.

Been here in SEMI for 6 years now and winter 2013-14 beats them all. I'm sure you are aware of that winter. Last season, I was slightly below average snowfall and yes, I like to measure snowfall only when we get a doozy storm.

[jaster220]

Detroit's average winter season snowfall runs at 44.1" and Macomb is a good 45 minutes north of the city. Its a suburban area, which tends to be colder and more snowier. I don't think Detroit is the least snowy part of the state because the average snowfall is pretty decent, compare to other parts south of Detroit, i.e, Monroe county which is near the Ohio border. I usually average more snow than Detroit per winter season and colder temps as well. Did not check statistics, but I am sure the average snowfall is higher in Macomb, along with lower avarage high and low temps.

Been here in SEMI for 6 years now and winter 2013-14 beats them all. I'm sure you are aware of that winter. Last season, I was slightly below average snowfall and yes, I like to measure snowfall only when we get a doozy storm.

 

Guess when I wrote that, I didn't mean that there were no places that get less snow, LOL. There's plenty, not just down river of Detroit, but up around Saginaw Bay even that region has lower averages. Glad you missed the decades (pre Jan '99 bliz) when Genesee County would get snow and your area was enjoying 33º and rain. Those times were horrid (especially late 80's til '99) for winter enthusiasts like ourselves. I was fortunate to move north in Sept of '90 missing roughly a decade of that crap. Hoping this winter continues the positive streak we've seen since '99!

[Niko]

Guess when I wrote that, I didn't mean that there were no places that get less snow, LOL. There's plenty, not just down river of Detroit, but up around Saginaw Bay even that region has lower averages. Glad you missed the decades (pre Jan '99 bliz) when Genesee County would get snow and your area was enjoying 33º and rain. Those times were horrid (especially late 80's til '99) for winter enthusiasts like ourselves. I was fortunate to move north in Sept of '90 missing roughly a decade of that crap. Hoping this winter continues the positive streak we've seen since '99!

I remember winter 2012-13, or was it 2011-12......anyways, one of those winters were very dull and I mean it hardly snowed at all,  zilch. Very little snow and hardly any cold air to be found in the United States. That was the only winter in Michigan that felt like I was in Atlanta, GA. Thankfully, it improved thereafter, especially, 2013-14, when all time record snowfall smashed Detroit (95.1inches total for winter season and 101.2" here in Macomb).

Lets see what provides this winter. ENSO should be neutral, which means good news for us. Its been awhile since we had a true, real blocking going on, so maybe , we are due for one this season.

[Tom]

I remember winter 2012-13, or was it 2011-12......anyways, one of those winters were very dull and I mean it hardly snowed at all,  zilch. Very little snow and hardly any cold air to be found in the United States. That was the only winter in Michigan that felt like I was in Atlanta, GA. Thankfully, it improved thereafter, especially, 2013-14, when all time record snowfall smashed Detroit (95.1inches total for winter season and 101.2" here in Macomb).

Lets see what provides this winter. ENSO should be neutral, which means good news for us. Its been awhile since we had a true, real blocking going on, so maybe , we are due for one this season.

The very warm Winter of 2011-2012 was a dud for pretty much the entire country east of the Rockies.  Everyone torched that entire season.  That was also the year where Alaska saw record cold and snow.  Houses in Fairbanks, AK were literally completely buried that year.  They had an epic Autumn, Winter and Spring.  That year's LRC pattern had a significant GOA Low that hugged the NW NAMER coastline while ridging was a common theme for the eastern 2/3rd's of the nation.