Preliminary Discussion For Upcoming 2016-2017 Fall and Winter Season

[OKwx2k4]

@Tom, this would be the map you're talking about. Looks good for you guys up there. If it can seed cold into a storm down here, might be a snowy Thanksgiving down this way.

 

[Niko]

Ironically, as said here already, the infamous winter of 1981-82 did this exact thing at least to open the month. Then storms were somehow hitting north of us burying MN to N Michigan with 4 to 6 feet of snow! That's when Minneapolis got their two 18" storms in 2 days. Kraaaaazyyyyyy stuffffffff 

Now, how sweet is that to get a two 18" storm in 2 days.

[Niko]

Hopefully we dont have suppression going on.

Hopefully not, but I think most of us on this forum should do good this winter.

[OKwx2k4]

Hopefully we dont have suppression going on.

With -NAO, -AO, and -EPO there's always going to some degree of suppression going on. Just the way the atmosphere works.

[Niko]

[Tom]

Another odd looking JAMSTEC run for Winter. SST's in the N PAC still look the same along with a La Nada in the central Pacific.

 

http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frcgc/research/d1/iod/2007/forecast/ssta.glob.DJF2017.1oct2016.gif

http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frcgc/research/d1/iod/2007/forecast/ssta.nino3.4.fcst.2-yr.1oct2016.gif

 

 

 

Here is the model's temp forecast and precip...the model is over doing the warmth all over N.A. IMO, in fact, all of Russia/Siberia is torching. How often do you see that??? The dryness in the central CONUS is going against all analogs. PAC NW is the only wet spot.

 

http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frcgc/research/d1/iod/2007/forecast/temp2.glob.DJF2017.1oct2016.gif

 

http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frcgc/research/d1/iod/2007/forecast/tprep.glob.DJF2017.1oct2016.gif

[OKwx2k4]

Another odd looking JAMSTEC run for Winter. SST's in the N PAC still look the same along with a La Nada in the central Pacific.

 

http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frcgc/research/d1/iod/2007/forecast/ssta.glob.DJF2017.1oct2016.gif

http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frcgc/research/d1/iod/2007/forecast/ssta.nino3.4.fcst.2-yr.1oct2016.gif

 

 

 

Here is the mode's temp forecast and precip...the model is over doing the warmth all over N.A. IMO, in fact, all of Russia/Siberia is torching. How often do you see that??? The dryness in the central CONUS is going against all analogs. PAC NW is the only wet spot.

 

http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frcgc/research/d1/iod/2007/forecast/temp2.glob.DJF2017.1oct2016.gif

 

http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frcgc/research/d1/iod/2007/forecast/tprep.glob.DJF2017.1oct2016.gif

Wow. I guess the JAMSTEC has fully lost it. I don't even know what to say to that.

[jaster220]

Wow. I guess the JAMSTEC has fully lost it. I don't even know what to say to that.

 

It's too bad these global long range models are so unreliable. They're fun when they generate outlooks we like  but otherwise 

[james1976]

That is a LOT of torching for many areas. No way that verifies.

[OKwx2k4]

It's too bad these global long range models are so unreliable. They're fun when they generate outlooks we like but otherwise

Well, I remember a good bit of blue in that particular one last winter that wasn't even remotely close. The JAMSTEC was so much more reliable when it was 20+ members a few years back. Since it went to 9 it has been horrible.

[OKwx2k4]

Stole this from the western group. Ole CFS has been showing a lot more of these this year than I can remember. 1st time I've ever seen it so close to the Euro.

 

[Tom]

Stole this from the western group. Ole CFS has been showing a lot more of these this year than I can remember. 1st time I've ever seen it so close to the Euro.

 

CL001_2MTEMP_DEP_SEASONAL_E_3.png

That is as cold as I've ever seen on the CFS! Looks like a '76/'77 winter, esp down by you. Very evident -NAO for sure. The PAC NW should have a decent winter I think. Weak La Niña and the pattern setting up that way is a good sign for them.

[Tom]

Here is a link where you can see the building snow cover over the Northern Hemisphere.  I initialized it from September 15th thru October 12th...

 

http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/snow-and-ice/snow-cover/nh/20160915-20161012

[jaster220]

Stole this from the western group. Ole CFS has been showing a lot more of these this year than I can remember. 1st time I've ever seen it so close to the Euro.

 

CL001_2MTEMP_DEP_SEASONAL_E_3.png

 

UP of Michigan "heat island", yeah, right CFS 

 

Here is a link where you can see the building snow cover over the Northern Hemisphere.  I initialized it from September 15th thru October 12th...

 

http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/snow-and-ice/snow-cover/nh/20160915-20161012

 

THANKS!

[Niko]

It's too bad these global long range models are so unreliable. They're fun when they generate outlooks we like  but otherwise 

Yup....I just look at them for entertainment reasons, otherwise, I know for sure that would they are showing is crap, even if its the type of maps that we all would like to see. I simply say, just have fun watching them.

[Tom]

I read this guy's winter forecast back on August 8th, he re-posted it again as not much has changed in his forecast:

 

http://firsthandweather.com/2105/early-2016-17-winter-forecast/

[OKwx2k4]

When today's portion of the LRC comes back, I should either have an ice or snow event to write about. Cold overrunning Southwesterly flow is one of the majorly important parts of my winter forecast so it's neat to see this has happened twice this month.

[OKwx2k4]

https://www.aer.com/science-research/climate-weather/arctic-oscillation

 

Nice update on SAI, and AO/NAO. I think he may be overstating temps in the Oct 21-31 period but his opinion is based on the long range GEFS, as is the AO/NAO forecast. My personal thoughts to date are that it (AO) never breaks positive throughout the remainder of the month and after rising a fair bit to near 0 it should crash to pretty deep territory before months end.

[westMJim]

Here is John Dee's long range guess for the upcoming winter.

 

http://www.johndee.com/seasonalfcst/seasonalforecast.htm

[jaster220]

I guess it applies here to this topic (idk?) but in JB's daily update he mentioned and showed how this monster storm in the NW could produce 120-130 mph gusts at some locales. He also showed prior strong storm tracks from the past, and what's fascinating to me was the years. Autumn of '62, '81, and '95. Can you say "analogs in play"? Wow.

[Tom]

I guess it applies here to this topic (idk?) but in JB's daily update he mentioned and showed how this monster storm in the NW could produce 120-130 mph gusts at some locales. He also showed prior strong storm tracks from the past, and what's fascinating to me was the years. Autumn of '62, '81, and '95. Can you say "analogs in play"? Wow.

Funny, I just posted a comment in our October thread regarding this storm!  To add to your comment on Analogs, I just read today a tweet from a met saying the weekly ENSO 3.4 readings are trending extremely close to the October '95 analog.  He's predicting a huge flip to colder in November.

 

 

[jaster220]

Funny, I just posted a comment in our October thread regarding this storm!  To add to your comment on Analogs, I just read today a tweet from a met saying the weekly ENSO 3.4 readings are trending extremely close to the October '95 analog.  He's predicting a huge flip to colder in November.

 

 

 

I lived and commuted through the snowbelts of N MI at that time, and I had already seen lots of snow flying by this point in October. I don't remember exactly when it started to stay on the ground and build-up a base, but by November it was like a normal December with regular cold/snow/storms even a legit Bliz on Veterans Day the 11th followed by another storm that thumped with 14" overnight. Lotta guys were late to work that morning I recall which is saying something cuz up there snow comes with the territory and it takes much more to impact life. It has to, or life would come to a halt for months on end lol

[Tom]

North/Central Canada has somewhat a pretty decent snow pack for mid October.  Already running above average in south/central Canada with more snows coming over the next 10 days.

 

The pattern is looking favorable for enough cold air to be present that will limit melting as we move forward.  Good signs for a building snow cover over North America.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016101406/gfs_asnow_namer_41.png

 

 

 

 

http://climate.rutgers.edu/snowcover/png/daily_dn/2016287.png

 

 

 

 

[westMJim]

I guess it applies here to this topic (idk?) but in JB's daily update he mentioned and showed how this monster storm in the NW could produce 120-130 mph gusts at some locales. He also showed prior strong storm tracks from the past, and what's fascinating to me was the years. Autumn of '62, '81, and '95. Can you say "analogs in play"? Wow.

I will toss up 3 different “analog” years at everyone. But please note I not sure I buy into the “analog” year syndrome. I use the spring into summer and now into fall weather pattern and 3 years I find similar to this year (so far) are (drum roll please) 1931 (winter of 1931/32)  2010 (winter 2010/11) and 2012 for the winter of 2012/13.  Of course even if there is some truth in using analog years each year and season will have its differences 

[jaster220]

https://www.aer.com/science-research/climate-weather/arctic-oscillation

 

Nice update on SAI, and AO/NAO. I think he may be overstating temps in the Oct 21-31 period but his opinion is based on the long range GEFS, as is the AO/NAO forecast. My personal thoughts to date are that it (AO) never breaks positive throughout the remainder of the month and after rising a fair bit to near 0 it should crash to pretty deep territory before months end.

 

I like this:

 

 

 

..meeting this in Nov/Dec:

 

http://www.mlive.com/weather/index.ssf/2016/10/lake_michigan_buoys_show_water.html

 

 

[OKwx2k4]

I like this:

 

20161014 Cohen wkly update snippit.PNG

 

..meeting this in Nov/Dec:

 

http://www.mlive.com/weather/index.ssf/2016/10/lake_michigan_buoys_show_water.html

 

I found it quite intriguing as well. Siberia is forecast to be brutally cold for the foreseeable future. When the cold air does dislodge, it would probably look like 2010-11. I use that year cautiously as an example, not an analog or anything like that.

[OKwx2k4]

 

Just wanted to throw these up here. Seems to be going according to plan. Looking forward to November and December. :-)

[Tom]

eps_ao_00-1.png

ecmwf_nao_bias-4.png

ecmwf_ao_bias-5.png

 

Just wanted to throw these up here. Seems to be going according to plan. Looking forward to November and December. :-)

Can't ask for a better teleconnection forecast!  Both the stratospheric and tropospheric AO trending negative is a good sign for farther weakening of the PV towards the end of the month.  This -AO trend is something to ponder on.

 

Saw this tweet by Dr. Cohen...showing a poleward heat flux to finish off the month of October...

 

30mb warming blossoming over Siberia may be the precursor and a result from the snow cover building in the region.  Let's see if it starts poking towards the pole as the GFS is forecasting.

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/intraseasonal/temp30anim.gif

[jaster220]

Can't ask for a better teleconnection forecast!  Both the stratospheric and tropospheric AO trending negative is a good sign for farther weakening of the PV towards the end of the month.  This -AO trend is something to ponder on.

 

Saw this tweet by Dr. Cohen...showing a poleward heat flux to finish off the month of October...

 

30mb warming blossoming over Siberia may be the precursor and a result from the snow cover building in the region.  Let's see if it starts poking towards the pole as the GFS is forecasting.

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/intraseasonal/temp30anim.gif

 

Wow Tom, it would surely appear that the tele's are pointing towards some major re-alignment coming down the road. Question is how far down?

[Niko]

eps_ao_00-1.png

ecmwf_nao_bias-4.png

ecmwf_ao_bias-5.png

 

Just wanted to throw these up here. Seems to be going according to plan. Looking forward to November and December. :-)

[OKwx2k4]

Wow Tom, it would surely appear that the tele's are pointing towards some major re-alignment coming down the road. Question is how far down?

My thoughts would be towards the end of November at the moment. A lot of intraseasonal variance right now. This is why October alone doesn't usually actually predict much for our winter on this side of the globe. Warm September and warm October were pretty well to be expected even though I've hoped I was wrong about that. Models have been entertaining but won't be much cold to close this month out except in the Pacific Northwest maybe.

[jaster220]

My thoughts would be towards the end of November at the moment. A lot of intraseasonal variance right now. This is why October alone doesn't usually actually predict much for our winter on this side of the globe. Warm September and warm October were pretty well to be expected even though I've hoped I was wrong about that. Models have been entertaining but won't be much cold to close this month out except in the Pacific Northwest maybe.

 

Was reminded again that Nino's into Nina's are notorious for strong autumn storms (i.e. '98 or 2010) so you would think somethings gotta give sooner than later, eh?

[Tom]

Was reminded again that Nino's into Nina's are notorious for strong autumn storms (i.e. '98 or 2010) so you would think somethings gotta give sooner than later, eh?

I was actually thinking about the other day and wondering if there would be any residual effects from the strong Nino from last year that could potentially fuel stronger storms this season.  Having said that, the series of powerful storms that targeted the PAC NW last weekend may be a sign.  Definitely has a La Nina look to it.

 

If there is a SSW event that starts to build over Siberia later this month, one can think it will cross over the pole into NW NAMER sometime in early next month.  If teleconnectinos support a buckling jet, we might have a mid November start to Winter.

[Tom]

@ Okwx, if you take a look at tonight's Euro Weeklies, please provide some input.  Many thanks!

[OKwx2k4]

I was actually thinking about the other day and wondering if there would be any residual effects from the strong Nino from last year that could potentially fuel stronger storms this season. Having said that, the series of powerful storms that targeted the PAC NW last weekend may be a sign. Definitely has a La Nina look to it.

 

If there is a SSW event that starts to build over Siberia later this month, one can think it will cross over the pole into NW NAMER sometime in early next month. If teleconnectinos support a buckling jet, we might have a mid November start to Winter.

 

 

 

Here's a sign of the first good chip in the armor of warmth that keeps invading us.

 

I missed it completely. You can have -AO/-NAO for weeks but if the EPO doesn't play ball, you're toast. We're coming off a sky high EPO and temps have a more direct correlation this time of year into the winter with the EPO than any other index. Huge crash coming. This is the very first negative run though interested to see what it does from here. Fun model runs incoming over the next few days. Lots of wild changes. I knew if I said the rest of the month may very well be warm that it would happen. Should have stuck to my guns about the last week of this month a little longer.

 

I'll comment on the EURO as soon as I can.

[OKwx2k4]

The weeklies are an all out blowtorch for all of us until the week of November 18th and then back to warm. Pretty disappointing. I don't really believe it to be honest. Snowy in the west and far NE in the front 32 days. The rest of it hasn't ran yet. The operational euro has digested the EPO flip and is a complete opposite look in days 8-10 from the 00z last night. Nice cold plunge there.

[Tom]

The latest JMA monthlies came out last night and are in the camp of the Euro for Winter.  As I look at the forecast for the month of November, the 500mb resembles a continuation of the -AO along with a trough near the PAC NW and slightly digging into the Rockies and Plains.  It has been a very cold start to the month of October in southwestern/western Canada and I think this region is going to get colder as we head into November which will allow more colder air to seep down the Rockies in November.

 

By December and January, a -AO/NAO develop a trough over the East and expands farther west into January.  It's certainly showing an active pattern in the central/east.

 

 

[Tom]

The POAMA Nov forecast is similar to the JMA showing an active storm track near the PAC NW/British Columbia keeping in above normal for the majority of our sub forum.  

 

 

[Tom]

CPC comes out with their updated seasonal outlook later this week on Thursday.  Will post when available.

 

I'm very impressed with how expansive the Canadian snow cover is in mid October!  After yesterday's snowfall, nearly 80% of Canada is filled with snow.

 

October 16th...

 

http://www.natice.noaa.gov/pub/ims/ims_gif/DATA/prvsnow_alaska.gif

 

October 17th...

 

http://www.natice.noaa.gov/pub/ims/ims_gif/DATA/cursnow_alaska.gif

 

 

The snow will continue to pile up over the next 10 days...interestingly, it will do so in western Canada...where the seasonal models expect the storm track to continue heading into November.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016101800/gfs_asnow_namer_41.png

 

 

 

Current daily snow cover map...

 

http://climate.rutgers.edu/snowcover/png/daily_ims/2016291.png

 

 

 

http://climate.rutgers.edu/snowcover/png/daily_dn/2016291.png

[Tom]

As expected, Eurasian snowcover has expanded quite a bit since last week...

 

 

 

 

12z GFS is expanding it farther west as it continues to pile up near Siberia/Russia...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016101812/gfs_asnow_asia_41.png

 

 

 

By the Day 7-10 period, parts of Russia/Siberia temps tank past -20F and continue the decline through the end of the month!

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016101812/gfs_T2m_asia_38.png