Preliminary Discussion For Upcoming 2016-2017 Fall and Winter Season

[OKwx2k4]

EUROsips released today I guess and shows normal east with warm west. -AO,-NAO,-EPO,+PNA. Likely means the trough will be in the east with the +PDO we have grown accustomed to over the last few years.

[OKwx2k4]

Weeklies snowfall totally disagrees with itself.

[GDR]

If the Cubs are any indication of winter, we all need to prepare because it's going to be down right cold!!

[Tom]

AER's Preliminary Winter Forecast has been issued on NSF's website.  The link is below:

 

https://www.nsf.gov/news/special_reports/autumnwinter/predicts.jsp

 

 

[Tom]

CPC has updated their Seasonal outlook and seem to continue a similar theme for a colder north and warm south.  For the month of November, much of the U.S. is advertised to be above normal except the PAC NW where it will be stormy and wet.

 

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/t14.2c.gif

 

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/p14.2c.gif

 

 

 

For the Winter, it begins to change and more widespread wet pattern evolves along the northern half of the nation, similar to a typical La Nina-type pattern.

 

 

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/t02.2c.gif

 

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/p02.2c.gif

 

 

The cold hangs on through early Spring...

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/t03.2c.gif

 

 

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/p03.2c.gif

[westMJim]

CPC has updated their Seasonal outlook and seem to continue a similar theme for a colder north and warm south.  For the month of November, much of the U.S. is advertised to be above normal except the PAC NW where it will be stormy and wet.

 

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/t14.2c.gif

 

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/p14.2c.gif

 

 

 

For the Winter, it begins to change and more widespread wet pattern evolves along the northern half of the nation, similar to a typical La Nina-type pattern.

 

 

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/t02.2c.gif

 

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/p02.2c.gif

 

 

The cold hangs on through early Spring...

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/t03.2c.gif

 

 

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/p03.2c.gif

If the CPC's long range guess were to pan out that sure would give the great Lakes region a very snowy winter! All I will say at this time is we will have to see how this all plays out,  The CPC has been leaning towards a cold and snowy winter for most of  our area for a long time now.  Any one have any data so to how accurate the CPC has been on their long range guesses(outlooks)?

[westMJim]

Here is the IMME take on the upcoming winter.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/NMME/current/imme/IMME_tmp2m_us_season2.png

and for JFM

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/NMME/current/imme/IMME_tmp2m_us_season3.png

and here is their precipitation ideas

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/NMME/current/imme/IMME_prate_us_season2.png

and for late winter

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/NMME/current/imme/IMME_prate_us_season3.png

[Tom]

NOAA's Winter Outlook discussion...

 

http://www.noaa.gov/media-release/noaa-s-winter-outlook-predicts-warmer-drier-south-and-cooler-wetter-north

[Jaycee]

NOAA's Winter Outlook discussion...

 

http://www.noaa.gov/media-release/noaa-s-winter-outlook-predicts-warmer-drier-south-and-cooler-wetter-north

 

I guess were not in the drier than normal so that's a plus. Even though equal chances is almost just as ugly as seeing that. I guess we'll just wait and see. Who knows what could happen. I hope there is just a month period of Colorado Lows, so we can all laugh together about how we all have 2 feet of snow on the ground.

[Niko]

http://i67.tinypic.com/jv4z9h.jpg

 

Hopefully, my name buries my area and all of this forum!!!!!

[Tom]

Over the last 8 runs of the CFSv2, on average, it's pointing towards a flip to wintry conditions between Nov 10-15th for the majority of the sub forum.  I think this is going to be a pretty phenomenal flip when it comes, esp if we can get some of that Siberian Air to come across the pole.

[Tom]

Dr. Cohen just updated his blog and he spoke about what could possibly be a record poleward heat flux by months end which could weaken the PV to record low strength into early November.  This is all a big "IF", so we'll wait and see if the GFS is right.

 

 

 

 

mpacts

For the past few weeks I have been focusing on the unusually weak stratospheric polar vortex so far this fall season and in my opinion the strength of the polar vortex in the coming weeks both in the stratosphere and the troposphere are key to this winter’s weather.  As I have discussed previously, the predicted large scale tropospheric pattern is favorable for poleward heat transport or vertical Wave Activity Flux (WAFz). Now the Global Forecast System (GFS) is predicting near record strong poleward heat flux followed by near record weak stratospheric polar vortex in early November.  To be honest I don’t see other models and my sense is that the GFS might be alone on this forecast.   But regardless I remain of the opinion that the predicted large atmospheric pattern is favorable for poleward heat flux in the coming weeks.  For now I am assuming that the GFS forecast is generally correct and that into early November the polar vortex in both the stratosphere and troposphere will be relatively weak.  As long as one and/or both are weak in the coming weeks and months this favors a relatively cold winter for large portions of the NH mid-latitudes consistent with our winter forecast. Alternatively if both the stratospheric and tropospheric polar vortexes become relatively strong simultaneously, then this favors a much milder solution and the winter forecast will need to be re-evaluated.

 

A key predictor for our winter forecast is October Eurasian snow cover.  We are almost three weeks into the month of October and Eurasian snow cover is above normal.  Over the past few years I have especially focused on snow cover south of 60°N and so far the snow cover advance has been particularly impressive south of 60°N. My interpretation of the early indications of the snow cover advance across Eurasia is a bias to a weaker winter polar vortex and a relatively cold winter.  Furthermore with the prediction of a negative AO through the end of October I expect that Eurasian snow cover to continue its advance at a relatively accelerated rate. Furthermore I continue to be impressed with the persistence of the cold temperatures across Siberia for the month of October.  The longer the cold temperatures persist across Siberia, the harder it becomes to dislodge and the more likely those cold Siberian temperatures will be a player in the hemispheric weather outside of Siberia, especially if the polar vortex weakens simultaneously in both the stratosphere and troposphere similar to what is predicted by the GFS.

 

 

 

 

http://www.aer.com/sites/default/files/Figure1bl.png

 

 

Let's see if the CFSv2 is right about a potential big flip come mid November.

[OKwx2k4]

What we're getting ready to see here (I think) is one of the more impressive flips in what is known as the Polar Eurasia pattern, combined with an EPO dump that I've mentioned previously. The positive mode of the polar eurasia pattern is cold locked over Siberia with warmth blocked in over the US. When this flips, you get the picture. :-)

 

Last time we saw the AO hit a record low number in an autumn month was back in October of '09 and we all remember what happened that year. This would be a month later but maybe we see the same results this winter. I know a lot of the more trusted forecast sources (and some that arent) are throwing out maps that look like you analoged 2009-10 and 2010-11 together. AER'S map is one in particular that reminds me of this.

[Tom]

What we're getting ready to see here (I think) is one of the more impressive flips in what is known as the Polar Eurasia pattern, combined with an EPO dump that I've mentioned previously. The positive mode of the polar eurasia pattern is cold locked over Siberia with warmth blocked in over the US. When this flips, you get the picture. :-)

 

Last time we saw the AO hit a record low number in an autumn month was back in October of '09 and we all remember what happened that year. This would be a month later but maybe we see the same results this winter. I know a lot of the more trusted forecast sources (and some that arent) are throwing out maps that look like you analoged 2009-10 and 2010-11 together. AER'S map is one in particular that reminds me of this.

I hope there is some consistency in tonight's Euro Weeklies to show any common ground with the various longer range models.

[OKwx2k4]

I hope there is some consistency in tonight's Euro Weeklies to show any common ground with the various longer range models.

Surely they have picked up on the changes by now. I'll let you all know what they show or if they have changed.

[james1976]

That is a good read Tom. Thanks to you guys for digging around and finding this stuff. Hopefully the models will start agreeing. Speaking of the GFS....last couple runs have looked interesting to close out Oct and open Nov.

[GDR]

http://tswails.com/uploads/2016/10/1-snowday.png

[OKwx2k4]

Warmer than normal all the way through most of the opening 2 weeks of November and then a total flip from the 20th of November through the 5th of December. Looks snowy though.

[james1976]

http://tswails.com/uploads/2016/10/1-snowday.png

Is this Terry Swails?

[GDR]

Is this Terry Swails?

yeah he has a good write up

[Tom]

yeah he has a good write up

Can you post a link to his forecast???  Thanks

[Tom]

Warmer than normal all the way through most of the opening 2 weeks of November and then a total flip from the 20th of November through the 5th of December. Looks snowy though.

eps_t2m_168h_northamer_7.png

eps_t2m_168h_northamer_9.png

eps_sno_1104_conus_185-1.png

I'd take that.  Don't mind at all for a wintry Thanksgiving week!

 

@GDR, never mind, I found it.

[Tom]

@ Jaster, you asked before what atmospheric conditions a modiki La Nina would present?  I came across a map from a met that showed an analog for modiki La Nina's.  You can see the analog years in the map below even though it is from Sep-Oct.  There are some big years in those analogs.

 

 

 

[Tom]

Here is another map showing the flip on the Euro Weeklies around mid November...

 

 

[OKwx2k4]

Big blue jackpot of happiness right there. :-)

[Niko]

Yesterday I was chatting with my neighbor about our winter outlook and I asked him what he thinks of our winter coming up and he responded that he has a strong feeling it will be a brutal one because the squirrels this year are big and fluffy.

[OKwx2k4]

Nice winter forecast. Can't say I disagree with any of it at all.

 

 

https://nynjpaweather.com/winter-forecast-for-20162017/

[GDR]

http://tswails.com/winter-does-anybody-really-know

[OKwx2k4]

http://tswails.com/winter-does-anybody-really-know

This one supposed to be different from the other one?

[jaster220]

As expected, Eurasian snowcover has expanded quite a bit since last week...

 

 

 

 

12z GFS is expanding it farther west as it continues to pile up near Siberia/Russia...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016101812/gfs_asnow_asia_41.png

 

 

 

By the Day 7-10 period, parts of Russia/Siberia temps tank past -20F and continue the decline through the end of the month!

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016101812/gfs_T2m_asia_38.png

 

All that chill in Siberia bodes well. When it comes, it's gonna come huge

[GDR]

This one supposed to be different from the other one?

Tom just wanted the link and should be the article

[Jaycee]

Did Swales claim that forecast was his? Cuz I'm pretty sure Craig (posts here sometimes) was actually the one who made that.

 

https://www.facebook.com/snowdayweather/photos/a.122604394474635.19752.122352087833199/1128750520526679/?type=3&theater

[GDR]

Did Swales claim that forecast was his? Cuz I'm pretty sure Craig (posts here sometimes) was actually the one who made that. If you read all the way through it gets is short opinion

 

https://www.facebook.com/snowdayweather/photos/a.122604394474635.19752.122352087833199/1128750520526679/?type=3&theater

[Tom]

There's been a lot of talk early on this season of the unusual nature of the Polar Vortex.  What's going on in the stratosphere is something I personally haven't seen since I began following weather patterns to the depth I do nowadays.  Maybe some of the older gents on this board have seen this is years past, but I personally haven't and find it rather peculiar.  

 

By Day 7, GEFS is indicating a complete split of the PV sending 1 lobe near western Eurasia and 1 into N Canada...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2016102118/gfs-ens_Tz10_nhem_14.png

 

 

This is quite the development and will certainly become a major player to our weather pattern moving forward into the cold season.

 

[OKwx2k4]

There's been a lot of talk early on this season of the unusual nature of the Polar Vortex. What's going on in the stratosphere is something I personally haven't seen since I began following weather patterns to the depth I do nowadays. Maybe some of the older gents on this board have seen this is years past, but I personally haven't and find it rather peculiar.

 

By Day 7, GEFS is indicating a complete split of the PV sending 1 lobe near western Eurasia and 1 into N Canada...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2016102118/gfs-ens_Tz10_nhem_14.png

 

 

This is quite the development and will certainly become a major player to our weather pattern moving forward into the cold season.

I have to do some research on this but I'm going to assume it's a great thing. I don't know what kind of obs there are throughout history on the PV so it's going to be a lot of guesswork. Ensembles are already starting to try to dig lows into the Red River in the latter period. I'm feeling much more confident in my forecast for this winter. Went on a limb with a bunch of "ifs" again like I did last year but I think it's going to work out really well. I think 78-79 and 83-84 should start showing up in analogs on the CPC site as we enter November. Also don't think Niña or lack thereof is going to be a huge factor going forward.

[Tom]

I have to do some research on this but I'm going to assume it's a great thing. I don't know what kind of obs there are throughout history on the PV so it's going to be a lot of guesswork. Ensembles are already starting to try to dig lows into the Red River in the latter period. I'm feeling much more confident in my forecast for this winter. Went on a limb with a bunch of "ifs" again like I did last year but I think it's going to work out really well. I think 78-79 and 83-84 should start showing up in analogs on the CPC site as we enter November. Also don't think Niña or lack thereof is going to be a huge factor going forward.

Regarding the Nina, I heard the latest Euro Seasonal has a La Nada, not even reaching Nina status.  ENSO 3.4 region has since warmed to La Nada status which will farther lead to weakening the chances of forming a weak La Nina.  It seems there is a lot of back and forth action going on in the central Pacific leading me to believe it is going to be difficult to get a true La Nina this season.

 

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/ocean/nino34.png

 

 

I agree with you, a lot of those "what if's" are starting to look more like they will start showing up soon.

[OKwx2k4]

Regarding the Nina, I heard the latest Euro Seasonal has a La Nada, not even reaching Nina status. ENSO 3.4 region has since warmed to La Nada status which will farther lead to weakening the chances of forming a weak La Nina. It seems there is a lot of back and forth action going on in the central Pacific leading me to believe it is going to be difficult to get a true La Nina this season.

 

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/ocean/nino34.png

 

 

I agree with you, a lot of those "what if's" are starting to look more like they will start showing up soon.

The reason I've been leery of the moderate Niña and then La Niña vs La Nada situation this whole time doesn't really have anything to do with what I would like to see but more that it hurts a lot of the analog process that people use to forecast winter. Mine included. Same as using the weather in one or 2 states vs using the whole globe. I speak from the experience of screwing it up mostly. Lol. Just trying to keep from putting the winter in a box again and missing something like I did last season.

[Tom]

Impressive finish to the month of October in terms of snowfall in Eurasia.  By months end, most, if not all, of Russia have a blanket of snow OTG.  Plenty cold to keep the snow around as well.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016102206/gfs_asnow_asia_40.png

 

 

I'm pleased with the way the GFS/GEFS have been handling the strato forecasts.  GFS has been doing a good job Day 5-10, GEFS in the 11-15.  Yesterday's run of the Euro now agreeing with the GFS and splitting the #PolarVortex by Day 6....

 

http://users.met.fu-berlin.de/~Aktuell/strat-www/wdiag/figs/ecmwf1/ecmwf30f144.gif

 

Day 10...

 

http://users.met.fu-berlin.de/~Aktuell/strat-www/wdiag/figs/ecmwf1/ecmwf30f240.gif

 

We also see it propagate up at 10mb as well by Day 7-10...

 

http://users.met.fu-berlin.de/~Aktuell/strat-www/wdiag/figs/ecmwf1/ecmwf10f240.gif

 

 

[OKwx2k4]

Just wanted to note, saw on the western group that October hadn't registered a single -PNA day. This could continue through the month of November. Very uncommon in weak Niña or cold neutral. So uncommon that the best fit years for this are pretty much only 2 seasons. 1959-60 and 1983-84. Coincidence? Nope. Only real question is think I have when the Arctic unloads this winter is when and how cold? :-)

[james1976]

Just wanted to note, saw on the western group that October hadn't registered a single -PNA day. This could continue through the month of November. Very uncommon in weak Niña or cold neutral. So uncommon that the best fit years for this are pretty much only 2 seasons. 1959-60 and 1983-84. Coincidence? Nope. Only real question is think I have when the Arctic unloads this winter is when and how cold? :-)

Dec 83 was brutal cold if i remember correctly.