Preliminary Discussion For Upcoming 2016-2017 Fall and Winter Season

[Tom]

5 out of the last 6 runs of the Brazlian have it snowing into late April and early May...could the unprecedented weak PV be a player???

 

CFSv2 starting to look better...

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CFSv2/imagesInd3/glbz700SeaInd1.gif

 

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CFSv2/imagesInd3/usPrecSeaInd1.gif

 

 

 

 

JFM...

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CFSv2/imagesInd3/glbz700SeaInd2.gif

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CFSv2/imagesInd3/usPrecSeaInd2.gif

 

 

 

 

JB posted this map from the Euro Weeklies good through Dec 30...

 

[jaster220]

Scratch off the 81-82 and make it a 13-14.

 

Nah, you're fine with either, trust me...

 

 

Here's a very good thing to keep in mind wrt long-range models showing endless warmth over the winter:

 

grace posted:  One word of caution....keep this in mind the seasonal models keep showing Eurasia above normal also...SOOO??

 

 

 

A little tricky chart to read since the dates are for the past 12 months, not for the upcoming winter, but you can see how we're kinda middle of the road right now between some of the best analogs:

 

 

[jaster220]

1070mb HP over asia, talk about mid-winter in mid-November! 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Another well written winter forecast link:  http://waltsweather.weebly.com/long-term/2016-17-winter-outlook

[jaster220]

Just checked mby records and I had just shy of 19" from 1st flakes thru end of Dec '13. This Euro map gets close to that. Nice..

 

 

[Niko]

Just checked mby records and I had just shy of 19" from 1st flakes thru end of Dec '13. This Euro map gets close to that. Nice..

 

20161115 45 day Euro CONUS snowcast.jpg

I am somewhere in the 10-15inch range. No complaints there.

[Niko]

Nah, you're fine with either, trust me...

 

 

Here's a very good thing to keep in mind wrt long-range models showing endless warmth over the winter:

 

 

 

A little tricky chart to read since the dates are for the past 12 months, not for the upcoming winter, but you can see how we're kinda middle of the road right now between some of the best analogs:

 

20161115 Autumn ENSO vs prior strong Nino's.PNG

Nice chart.

[jaster220]

 

 

All indications so far would lead me to expect a NEGATIVE AO for this upcoming winter. October 2016 had one of the highest snowfall extents in Eurasia and Siberia on record and the area quickly went from the lowest snowfall extent in the past 12 years in September to the third highest on record. ​Not only do we have high snow cover, but the polar vortex is already very weak and nearly had one of the earliest splits on record. This would indicate -AO conditions are going to develop and likely bring the United States a shot of colder air towards the second half of November. Last year we had a very strong polar vortex around this time, and we could never overcome that - and strong ENSO conditions - to get cold arctic air masses into the US. Conditions are favorable for a -AO and weak polar vortex especially in the early part of winter. I have fairly high confidence of that at this time.

 

That's just an amazing stat right there!! Could our winter take off like that when it finally arrives?? 

[An italian the loves snow]

Interesting that Jim Flowers really "feels" 1981-82 which I've agreed with from the start. The main difference would seem to be that Cohen's map really doesn't show a SE ridge whereas Flower's map and/or primary storm track reflects a ridge. He does allow for a secondary track up the EC though. Maybe they're both correct. Ridge early, later over-whelmed by a mature arctic mid-winter?

Can you post Jim Flowers map, please? Thank you Jaster

[An italian the loves snow]

Look at that Siberian Express rushing down.

 

 

Btw: you might see some snowsqualls this weekend. Keep an eye on that.

Oh, it would be great! I fear that when cold air comes the precipitations are gone! But at least some snowflake I should see.

[An italian the loves snow]

Scratch off the 81-82 and make it a 13-14.

How was in Ontario 81-82?

[Niko]

How was in Ontario 81-82?

Tbh, I have no clue.

[Niko]

Oh, it would be great! I fear that when cold air comes the precipitations are gone! But at least some snowflake I should see.

Tis the Season....as long as flakes are flying in the air.

[jaster220]

Can you post Jim Flowers map, please? Thank you Jaster

 

Sure..

 

 

 

..and temp's

 

 

[jaster220]

 Hmmm....

 

 

[An italian the loves snow]

Sure..

 

20161115 Flower's Jet stream map.PNG

 

..and temp's

 

20161115 Flower's Temps map.PNG

Thanks a lot!

[Tom]

Well, JAMSTEC continues with a blow torch warm N.A. and Eurasia!  Something is massively wrong with the data the model is spitting out.  SST anomalies in the N PAC suggest and ideal colder look in the lower 48.  The model busted real bad for its Autumn forecast in Russia.

 

Here was the August run for Sep-Nov...we know this was wrong...

 

http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frcgc/research/d1/iod/2007/forecast/temp2.glob.SON2016.1aug2016.gif

 

Here is the latest November run...

 

 

http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frcgc/research/d1/iod/2007/forecast/temp2.glob.DJF2017.1nov2016.gif

http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frcgc/research/d1/iod/2007/forecast/ssta.glob.DJF2017.1nov2016.gif

 

Although, what we are seeing as a common theme among the various climate models is an active storm track up through the southern Plains/Midwest/Lakes...dryness in the SE and parts of the SW...

 

http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frcgc/research/d1/iod/2007/forecast/tprep.glob.DJF2017.1nov2016.gif

[gosaints]

Models were suppose to be wrong on the blowtorch last winter as well.  I remember reading that over and over...

[jaster220]

  @ Jamstec. Hi-jacked to be the AGW slave model?? 

 

"slight" differences in Asia..

 

 

 

[Tom]

Models were suppose to be wrong on the blowtorch last winter as well. I remember reading that over and over...

Big difference this season, we have a weak La Niña and a very weak PV with ample blocking. Odds are in favor for a colder outlook IMO.

[james1976]

So the model shows a blow torch for most of the world lol

[Niko]

I wonder what JAMSTEC is smoking?!

[jaster220]

 

Hilarious (and accurate) quote from kpk33x:

 

Disclaimer: I am not targeting anyone on this forum personally in case you are involved with the production/have ownership stake of any of the models being discussed here...

 

But come on, it is 2016, and how come we are at mid November and we have just about the full range of potential forecasts for the next three months? Many millions go into this and this is what comes out?

 

I guess I am at a loss how to explain this, when certain folks are so confident that the earth will warm by X degrees by the year 2100....over 1000 months away....when they are so far off 1 or 2 months ahead.

 

That JAMSTEC output should be on ESPN's "C'mon Man!"   

 

 

[jaster220]

It's not for Nov, so guess I'll show this here:

 

 

[jaster220]

Joey took a lot of heat from response tweets, but is bullish on this happening:

 

 

[jaster220]

A snippit from OVFC on fb. Interesting that they see a connection with the late season tropical system and the upcoming winter:

 

 

[OKwx2k4]

A snippit from OVFC on fb. Interesting that they see a connection with the late season tropical system and the upcoming winter:

 

20161116 OVFC quote.PNG

I always thought there was a connection as well but I can't put my finger on it. Late season tropical systems that make it above 40N while close to the US are a death shot to winter. (Best evidence was hurricane/hype storm Sandy)

[Niko]

Joey took a lot of heat from response tweets, but is bullish on this happening:

 

20161116 Joe B on NHEMI patt flip.PNG

This guy tends to exaggerate too much. Not sure I can trust him. 

 

FWIW: He seems more of a "WeatherComedian".

[jaster220]

These 2 in agreement?   Well, almost. I think the BAMwx folks have a more sensible precip stripe and below temp zone imho.

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Niko]

Definitely liking what I am seeing, although, Noaa always seems to be very conservative.

[WBadgersW]

 

Looks a bit warm. Maybe some decent Lake effect to start off the season.

[gosaints]

IMG_20161117_205732.jpg

 

Looks a bit warm. Maybe some decent Lake effect to start off the season.

Holy moly

[Madtown]

Those lake Temps will crash with the next couple overnights.

[hlcater]

Apparently the new Euro Weeklies and monthlies bode well for us, no maps, saw it stated elsewhere. So take that with a grain of salt.

[Niko]

It's not for Nov, so guess I'll show this here:

 

20161116 CFS 16-Dec 500mb map.PNG

Look at that nice trough there. Its screaming storminess.

[jaster220]

Jim Flowers is really bullish on the Dec flip and his map has my SWMI region in one of the ++SN (heavy) zones! Kudos if he's correct 

 

 

[Niko]

Jim Flowers is really bullish on the Dec flip and his map has my SWMI region in one of the ++SN (heavy) zones! Kudos if he's correct 

 

20161117 Jim F winter snow map.PNG

So, I am in the "Much Above" category. Umm, I'll accept that. I wonder why he has the NE in the heavy zone and not SEMI! I'm guessing a better storm track.

[Niko]

TWC thinks temps this winter 2016-17 will be slightly above average!!

 

https://weather.com/forecast/national/news/december-2016-april-2017-outlook

[jaster220]

TWC thinks temps this winter 2016-17 will be slightly above average!!

 

https://weather.com/forecast/national/news/december-2016-april-2017-outlook

 

They're hardly alone in that regard. With no overwhelming atmospheric drivers going into this winter, it's truly a dice toss as to how it all plays out. Ma Nature gotta keep us peeps in our place it would seem.    Last winter was a slam-dunk cinch, but it seems she's intent on weeding out the serious prognosticators from the slackers this year. 

[gosaints]

TWC thinks temps this winter 2016-17 will be slightly above average!!

 

https://weather.com/forecast/national/news/december-2016-april-2017-outlook

Ha there were plenty on here last winter that were going on and on about why it wouldnt torch....  This winter could easily be slightly above average

[Tom]

Here is a comparison to what the 500mb pattern looked like in the great winters of the late 1970's...

 

 

 

CFSv2 trying to sign a similar tune???  Not exact, but you get an idea of what may be going on down the road.  We shall see...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/cfs-avg/2016111806/cfs-avg_z500aMean_nhem_4.png

 

In fact, towards the end of the run right around December 8th (ish)...might the PV make a visit on this side of the Northern Hemisphere???

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/cfs-avg/2016111806/cfs-avg_z500aMean_nhem_5.png