snow_wizard Posted September 27, 2016 Report Share Posted September 27, 2016 That ridge that develops between Hawaii and the Aleutians on some of the LR guidance is the worst possible thing that could happen. That's the mechanical loading pattern for a fully coupled +EPO. Last October comes to mind. That would be a nightmare. I have my doubts given recent trends. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted September 27, 2016 Report Share Posted September 27, 2016 This is based off of what? Your hopes? Don't know for sure... intuition? It feels like the next step in this evolution. Sorry that I can't be more concrete. I often think the pattern is going to evolve in ways I don't personally like. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted September 27, 2016 Report Share Posted September 27, 2016 Quite well huh? In the form of you replying to everyone of his posts with a cold hearted jab type of "quite well"? Your idea of a healthy relationship seems a bit off I have probably responded to less than 5% of his posts. You should go back and just review this past weekend for starters. And we have had some conversations as well. More cordial than with you or Jesse... ever. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted September 27, 2016 Report Share Posted September 27, 2016 Quite well huh? In the form of you replying to everyone of his posts with a cold hearted jab type of "quite well"? Your idea of a healthy relationship seems a bit off Pretty hilarious that he would call anyone mean spirited. I think there is a picture of his avatar by the term in webster's. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted September 27, 2016 Report Share Posted September 27, 2016 Pretty hilarious that he would call anyone mean spirited. I think there is a picture of his avatar by the term in webster's. You hate a warming climate. And anyone who does not hate it as much as you do. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted September 27, 2016 Report Share Posted September 27, 2016 The WRF is really cool for the weekend and early next week. A pretty good chance of seeing our first highs in the 50s. Could be an opportunity for quite a few areas to score lows in the 30s also. If the surface low early next week tracks as advertised that could produce a ridiculously cool day if the timing is right. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted September 27, 2016 Report Share Posted September 27, 2016 WRF will be interesting. http://www.atmos.washington.edu/wrfrt/data/current_extended/images_d2/slp.147.0000.gif http://www.atmos.washington.edu/wrfrt/data/current_extended/images_d2/slp.153.0000.gif Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted September 27, 2016 Report Share Posted September 27, 2016 00z ensembles look pretty solidly cool. Although I threw several stones at a glass bottle 60 feet, 6 inches away from me today and have since determined that we are actually in for 45 days of warmth. I call it intuition. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted September 27, 2016 Report Share Posted September 27, 2016 00z ensembles look pretty solidly cool. Although I threw several stones at a glass bottle 60 feet, 6 inches away from me today and have since determined that we are actually in for 45 days of warmth. I call it intuition. I wouldn't mind maybe 30 to 40 days of warmth in November / early December. After a cold October that would be a pretty good lead up to get cold during actual winter for a change. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted September 27, 2016 Report Share Posted September 27, 2016 00z ensembles look pretty solidly cool. Although I threw several stones at a glass bottle 60 feet, 6 inches away from me today and have since determined that we are actually in for 45 days of warmth. I call it intuition.Its not always right... although those 45 days might end up above normal in Seattle. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted September 27, 2016 Report Share Posted September 27, 2016 Major snowfall being shown on the WRF for the Cascades early next week, particularly north of Snoqualmie Pass. Looking like this coming trough is going to have some teeth. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted September 27, 2016 Report Share Posted September 27, 2016 I wouldn't mind maybe 30 to 40 days of warmth in November / early December. After a cold October that would be a pretty good lead up to get cold during actual winter for a change.I was actually mocking an inaccurate wishcast made a few weeks ago. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted September 27, 2016 Report Share Posted September 27, 2016 Since September 7th... SEA is at +1.1 and WFO SEA is at about +1.0 We will see what October brings when all is said and done. Only looking at the Seattle area of course. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted September 27, 2016 Report Share Posted September 27, 2016 By the way... the 45-day comment was total sarcasm and not a forecast. Mocking the 'woe is me' attitude from Jesse with comments about a week of troughing needing to be paid for with weeks of warmth. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted September 27, 2016 Report Share Posted September 27, 2016 I was actually mocking an inaccurate wishcast made a few weeks ago. I figured. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted September 27, 2016 Report Share Posted September 27, 2016 Since September 7th... SEA is at +1.1 and WFO SEA is at about +1.0 We will see what October brings when all is said and done. Only looking at the Seattle area of course. IMBY it's been pretty cool fairly consistently this month thanks to chilly nights. The Seattle stations both do terrible with radiational cooling. Fall colors are really starting to pop here with the cold nights and sunny days. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted September 27, 2016 Report Share Posted September 27, 2016 IMBY it's been pretty cool fairly consistently this month thanks to chilly nights. The Seattle stations both do terrible with radiational cooling. Fall colors are really starting to pop here with the cold nights and sunny days.Fall color has been accelerated since August due to earlier stress. When we drove from Portland to Seattle in mid August it was amazing to see how much yellow color was already on display. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted September 27, 2016 Report Share Posted September 27, 2016 That would be a nightmare. I have my doubts given recent trends.Good news is the 00z CMC ensembles don't agree. Waiting on the 00z ECMWF/EPS. The long range bias-corrected GEFS is a full blown Pineapple Express slaughterfest during week 2. Tim's nightmare..lots of warm rain. It's that "flat" ridge south of the Aleutians that can cause problems. Can be a very tough to break given its nature to (locally) constructive interfere. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted September 27, 2016 Report Share Posted September 27, 2016 IMBY it's been pretty cool fairly consistently this month thanks to chilly nights. The Seattle stations both do terrible with radiational cooling. Fall colors are really starting to pop here with the cold nights and sunny days. Indeed. The colors have really been starting to pop here over the last week or so. It has been a gorgeous month. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted September 27, 2016 Report Share Posted September 27, 2016 Indeed. The colors have really been starting to pop here over the last week or so. It has been a gorgeous month. Definitely feels like we are ahead of the last two years for color. We should have a way to quantify this stuff. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted September 27, 2016 Report Share Posted September 27, 2016 Cloudy tomorrow morning but sunny by afternoon. After Thursday... 18 out of 21 days here will have been pretty much sunny. Nice run for September. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted September 27, 2016 Report Share Posted September 27, 2016 Good news is the 00z CMC ensembles don't agree. Waiting on the 00z ECMWF/EPS. The long range bias-corrected GEFS is a full blown Pineapple Express slaughterfest during week 2. Tim's nightmare..lots of warm rain. It's that "flat" ridge south of the Aleutians that can cause problems. Can be a very tough to break given its nature to (locally) constructive interfere. Yuck...We don't want to see that yet. That pattern in November can historically be a good sign though. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted September 27, 2016 Report Share Posted September 27, 2016 00Z ECMWF does not have a strong storm for Sunday. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted September 27, 2016 Report Share Posted September 27, 2016 Yuck...We don't want to see that yet. That pattern in November can historically be a good sign though.Yeah, no surprise that 8/10 analogs for the 00z GFS were Niño winters. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/short_range/tools/gifs/500hgt_comp_00gfs814.gif Those two Niña years (1967/68, 1984/85) were powerhouses, though. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted September 27, 2016 Report Share Posted September 27, 2016 Whatever happened to Blizzard? Maybe his parents cut back on his computer time when school started. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted September 27, 2016 Report Share Posted September 27, 2016 Yeah, no surprise that 8/10 analogs for the 00z GFS were Niño winters. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/short_range/tools/gifs/500hgt_comp_00gfs814.gif Those two Niña years (1967/68, 1984/85) were powerhouses, though. 67-68 was decent, not a regional great by any means. By recent standards I guess it was awesome for the I-5 corridor. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted September 27, 2016 Report Share Posted September 27, 2016 The ECMWF is really cold. Unquestionably slower to break down the block. At one point the block reaches the North Pole. Nice to see the GFS and Euro both trend longer on that feature. This could be an impressive cold snap (for this time of year) brewing. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted September 27, 2016 Report Share Posted September 27, 2016 67-68 was decent, not a regional great by any means. By recent standards I guess it was awesome for the I-5 corridor. 84-85 was definitely awesome for many locations. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bryant Posted September 27, 2016 Report Share Posted September 27, 2016 Whatever happened to Blizzard? Maybe his parents cut back on his computer time when school started.No longer has an account Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted September 27, 2016 Report Share Posted September 27, 2016 00Z ECMWF does not have a strong storm for Sunday.That's too bad since we will be staying out at Long Beach this weekend...would have been fun. Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted September 27, 2016 Report Share Posted September 27, 2016 That's too bad since we will be staying out at Long Beach this weekend...would have been fun. Might still happen... environment is ripe for development. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted September 27, 2016 Report Share Posted September 27, 2016 Warm morning. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted September 27, 2016 Report Share Posted September 27, 2016 FWIW, assuming (soon to be) Mathhew tracks up/off the eastern seaboard, the top track analogs are Gloria (1985) and Hazel (1954). Both years have been showing up as potential analogs in the CPC superensemble. Interesting winters followed in the western US. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted September 27, 2016 Report Share Posted September 27, 2016 The 6z GFS analog composite continues the GOA ridge through day 11. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted September 27, 2016 Report Share Posted September 27, 2016 Warm morning. Really strong NW to SE temperature gradient with that barely visible cold front. Pretty likely almost everywhere will have evening lows today. May not be that easy for the big cities though. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted September 27, 2016 Report Share Posted September 27, 2016 Really strong NW to SE temperature gradient with that barely visible cold front. Pretty likely almost everywhere will have evening lows today. May not be that easy for the big cities though. 61 for a low at SEA? Guaranteed a midnight low with clear skies by this afternoon and evening. SEA will probably be right at normal for September after today. Standing at -0.2 right now. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stuffradio Posted September 27, 2016 Report Share Posted September 27, 2016 Nice day. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted September 27, 2016 Report Share Posted September 27, 2016 The 6z GFS analog composite continues the GOA ridge through day 11. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/short_range/tools/gifs/500hgt_comp_06gfs814.gifYeah, 06z run was much better. No flat ridge south of the Aleutians. I have an irrational fear of that pattern, given the last several years. Does nothing but promote a Hudson Bay vortex in the long run. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GobBluth Posted September 27, 2016 Report Share Posted September 27, 2016 The 6z GFS analog composite continues the GOA ridge through day 11. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/short_range/tools/gifs/500hgt_comp_06gfs814.gif1985 analogs, early season cold snap? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted September 27, 2016 Report Share Posted September 27, 2016 Based on the orientation of the tri-polar wave series and polar anticyclone @ 126hrs, I think this GFS run might go zonal/+EPO in the extended range. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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