September 2016 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[Jesse]

Offshore flow kicking in here, with the temp up to 67 after a low of 48.

[Weather101]

Just reporting the trends. I will always gladly point it out if things trend faster/cooler with troughing too.

 

The only thing really in jeopardy now is PDX finishing the month -2 or better.

Don't post trends, wishcasting is better.

[TT-SEA]

Interesting pattern for early October if it comes close to verifying.

 

http://stream.ecmwf.int/data/atls20/data/data01/scratch/ps2png-atls20-95e2cf679cd58ee9b4db4dd119a05a8d-gGAtmH.png

[snow_wizard]

Don't post trends, wishcasting is better.

 

Early October will be colder than normal.  No wishcasting there.  I just wanted to point out the slight delay doesn't mean the troughing won't happen.  You will see I actually do know something when it's all said and done.

[snow_wizard]

Offshore flow kicking in here, with the temp up to 67 after a low of 48.

 

I'm jealous you dropped to 48.  The low sucked here last night thanks to cloud cover.  At least the dp is lower than I thought it would be today.

[snow_wizard]

The cool/quiet IO is something more typical in -AMO eras, as they usually go hand-in-hand. I'm definitely leaning towards using 1980s analogs, though the polar stratosphere/BDC is nothing like what is was then. Lower solar and significant differences in upper atmospheric chemistry will make a difference..what sort of difference remains to be seen.

 

I could live with some variation of the 1983 through 1985 period.   A lot of big cold waves here during that period.

[snow_wizard]

Interesting pattern for early October if it comes close to verifying.

 

 

The models are really struggling with details with all of the cut off lows and blocks that are happening.  I will be interested to see how October plays out.  I'm 50/50 on a significant cold wave during the month.  How is that for commitment?

[Jesse]

Early October will be colder than normal. No wishcasting there. I just wanted to point out the slight delay doesn't mean the troughing won't happen. You will see I actually do know something when it's all said and done.

 

I realize it doesn't mean it won't happen, I always hate slow cooldowns after warm events, though. Especially when they continually trend slower.

 

I don't know what he meant by the wishcasting thing.

[snow_wizard]

I realize it doesn't mean it won't happen, I always hate slow cooldowns after warm events, though. Especially when they continually trend slower.

 

I don't know what he meant by the wishcasting thing.

 

I understand.  It is nice a sharp cooling Tuesday still appears to be on though.

[TT-SEA]

The models are really struggling with details with all of the cut off lows and blocks that are happening.  I will be interested to see how October plays out.  I'm 50/50 on a significant cold wave during the month.  How is that for commitment?

 

 

So 50/50 huh?   You really do know something.   You can't be wrong.   

[Jesse]

Slower warming than I anticipated today. Still only 72 at PDX.

 

Although this time of year it is common to see a big afternoon spike on warm days. Especially if/when offshore winds surface.

[Deweydog]

Slower warming than I anticipated today. Still only 72 at PDX.

 

Although this time of year it is common to see a big afternoon spike on warm days. Especially if/when offshore winds surface.

Models backed off on the sharpness of the thermal trough late in the game. Doesn't look like things will mix out fully today.

[Jesse]

Models backed off on the sharpness of the thermal trough late in the game. Doesn't look like things will mix out fully today.

 

I was noticing that, but figured we'd still get something.

 

Upper 70s?

[Deweydog]

I was noticing that, but figured we'd still get something.

 

Upper 70s?

Should still get to 80.

[Jesse]

Should still get to 80.

If there's a god, it will.

[snow_wizard]

We just might see a warm period fall short of expectations.  What is the world coming to?

[BLI snowman]

I was noticing that, but figured we'd still get something.

 

Upper 70s?

 

90 tomorrow. 

[Jesse]

90 tomorrow.

An imaginary one like on 9/16, right?

[Deweydog]

If there's a god, it will.

Or at least an atmosphere.

[BLI snowman]

An imaginary one like on 9/16, right?

 

Overachiever. Blob.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I won't get to upset about 70s in September...

[Jesse]

I won't get to upset about 70s in September...

 

Where is upset? I don't think I'll get to there either.

[Weather101]

I realize it doesn't mean it won't happen, I always hate slow cooldowns after warm events, though. Especially when they continually trend slower.

 

I don't know what he meant by the wishcasting thing.

A joke lol relax.

[Weather101]

[Jesse]

A joke lol relax.

i am relaxed lol

[Jesse]

Pretty stellar day out.

[Jesse]

Overachiever. Blob.

Both solid points. Hmmmm....

[Trainwreck]

Hawks are looking great. Wilson is on fire.

[Deweydog]

i am relaxed lol

 

[Jesse]

lol i love that emoticon its just to funny

[Deweydog]

lol i love that emoticon its just to funny

 

Relax.

 

It's only 80.  

[Jesse]

Relax.

 

It's only 80.

I know. It's pretty nice out right now.

[Front Ranger]

This will be the third September in four years cooler than June across the region. Likely the coolest September since at least 2005 for most places.

[stuffradio]

i am relaxed lol

WHY IS EVERYONE YELLING AT ME

[Deweydog]

WHY IS EVERYONE YELLING AT ME

 

[Jesse]

Almost a ten degree spike in DPs at PDX over the last hour.

[ShawniganLake]

Then we should bet.

I am thinking slightly cooler than normal. I might take you on the bet. SEA makes me a bit nervous, though.

[James Jones]

This will be the third September in four years cooler than June across the region. Likely the coolest September since at least 2005 for most places.

The region is massively overdue for a warm September.

[snow_wizard]

The 18z comes dangerously close to bringing contiental cold air to the NW once again.  The last three runs either deliver or come close.  The big story continues to be the ultra persistent GOA ridge.  Essentially historic in its tenacity.  1949 is actually one of the closest matches to it.

[TT-SEA]

Feels like summer on Lake Sammamish right now. Lake is packed too.