September 2016 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[Deweydog]

It may not be an unequivocal solution, obviously there will always be some degree of gun violence, but common sense dictates that at very least we shouldn't make it SO easy. Small deterrents can pay big dividends in many borderline scenarios.

I just don't see it. It would be one thing if there were a more predictable nature to these mass killings. The motivations to injure/kill indiscriminately, be them mental health related, terrorist related, are the only factor. It's hard for me to imagine one of these individuals simply being fixed by the fact it's suddenly become slightly more complicated a process to obtain a firearm. Rogue is rogue.

[Phil]

The signal for the SE is pretty strong. Opposite of what we want for a cold NW winter if October is warm.

I'm not sure that's even a coherent signal, because a similar tendency is noted in the SW US, and a SE ridge will generally teleconnect to a trough in the SW US during D/J/F.

[Phil]

Here's the 12z GEFS, NAEFS, and GGEM ensembles during the d11-15 range. All are great looking patterns, with the GEFS probably the sexiest-looking overall:

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/2016-09/A9F6CC64-3387-439F-892F-CA8EA480BC5F_zpsr8fis4qj.gif

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/A037B16C-4B78-4809-B46D-0FB7974322B1_zpsve3gehzh.gif

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/D044288B-C236-4BF0-A140-D8B91CBE8DA3_zpst8kvgw9a.gif

[Front Ranger]

Out of curiosity, what happens if I remove all -QBO years from this list?

 

Winters following cold Octobers:

 

 

Winters following warm Octobers:

 

 

Looks like the signal essentially vanishes.

 

Yeah, the QBO definitely plays a role. +QBO/-ENSO is more blocky and likely to deliver serious cold in both October and the winter.

[Front Ranger]

Also, when looking for correlations, I think it's worthwhile to account for the significant changes to the climatological circulation(s) that have occurred since the late 1970s. These "correlations" will almost certainly change with time, as the systematic boundary state(s) change.

 

Using older years might be something to avoid. I'd stick to years within the satellite era to avoid any false/unrepresentative signals, which are already evident in the mid/upper level climatologies between early 20th century years, and late 20th/early 21st years.

 

The problem with this, from a correlation perspective, is you're really limiting sample size.

 

Plus, there's no way to know for sure that whatever changes that have occurred, cyclical or otherwise, make older years irrelevant.

[Weather101]

I just don't see it. It would be one thing if there were a more predictable nature to these mass killings. The motivations to injure/kill indiscriminately, be them mental health related, terrorist related, are the only factor. It's hard for me to imagine one of these individuals simply being fixed by the fact it's suddenly become slightly more complicated a process to obtain a firearm. Rogue is rogue.

Something needs to be done or maybe it's just the society we live in today. But making guns more difficult to get would help in my opinion. Then again who knows such a hard topic to prove ether side of the debate.

[Phil]

The problem with this, from a correlation perspective, is you're really limiting sample size.

 

Plus, there's no way to know for sure that whatever changes that have occurred, cyclical or otherwise, make older years irrelevant.

Good point regarding sample size. That's just one of many problems, in my opinion.

 

As for the climatological changes themselves, there's definitely a demonstrable effect, in my opinion. For example, the broadening and poleward migration(s) of the Hadley Cells can be directly connected to the widening of the ITCZ, strengthening of the Brewer Dobson Circulation, the great North Atlantic climate shift of 2007, and possibly the corruption of the QBO back in March.

[snow_wizard]

Also, when looking for correlations, I think it's worthwhile to account for the significant changes to the climatological circulation(s) that have occurred since the late 1970s. These "correlations" will almost certainly change with time, as the systematic boundary state(s) change.

 

Using older years might be something to avoid. I'd stick to years within the satellite era to avoid any false/unrepresentative signals, which are already evident in the mid/upper level climatologies between early 20th century years, and late 20th/early 21st years.

 

Good points.  I just have a feeling things are about to transition to something more like the good old days.  The thing you have missed is the point we have had no cold Januaries since 1980.  Even the good winters that have been preceded by warm Octobers had lousy Januaries for the most part.

[snow_wizard]

Here's the 12z GEFS, NAEFS, and GGEM ensembles during the d11-15 range. All are great looking patterns, with the GEFS probably the sexiest-looking overall:

 

 

 

 

 

 

Remarkably good agreement.  I like it!

[Phil]

Good points. I just have a feeling things are about to transition to something more like the good old days. The thing you have missed is the point we have had no cold Januaries since 1980. Even the good winters that have been preceded by warm Octobers had lousy Januaries for the most part.

Or, perhaps they're related?

[snow_wizard]

Or, perhaps they're related?

 

They probably are.  My point was a warm October cold ENSO winter is unlikely to bring a cold January regardless.  Obviously 1942-43 was a big exception.

[Phil]

They probably are. My point was a warm October cold ENSO winter is unlikely to bring a cold January regardless. Obviously 1942-43 was a big exception.

Yeah, I haven't looked at January in isolation. Could argue the lack of Arctic air in January over the last 30+ years is merely a relative entity in relation to the apparent changes in the October correlations, given there aren't many test cases.

[Trainwreck]

Yeah, the QBO definitely plays a role. +QBO/-ENSO is more blocky and likely to deliver serious cold in both October and the winter.

What is QBO?

[DareDuck]

Pretty chilly month for the PNW so far. Certainly cooler than many here (myself included) were thinking/predicting. This should stay the same or even go down a bit more in spots over the next week. image.png

Do you have the precip percentage map for this month?

[Phil]

Just for reference, the d11-15 18z GFS depicts exactly the sort of pattern we'd like to avoid.

[snow_wizard]

I think you just try to look at anything to help have hope which is 100% fine and I'm okay with because I like your posts. I just don't see how a warm or cold October means anything for the winter... So if we have a cold June will the rest of the summer be cold too? No most likely not. As for the years you posted above I believe we can have good winters but climate has changed and I'm pretty sure you can see that.

 

It's not so much whether October is warm or cold, but the actual 500mb / surface pressure pattern we have.  Certain patterns are more likely to lead to good patterns in the winter.

[Front Ranger]

What is QBO?

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Quasi-biennial_oscillation 

 

Westerly winds are -QBO, easterly are +QBO.

[snow_wizard]

Just for reference, the d11-15 18z GFS depicts exactly the sort of pattern we'd like to avoid.

 

Pretty amazing how inconsistent the models have been even beyond day 8 or so.

[Phil]

Pretty amazing how inconsistent the models have been even beyond day 8 or so.

Definitely. I always struggle to forecast during October and March/April. So many transitional states..you never know which ones are low frequency predictors and which ones are episodic.

[snow_wizard]

I think I might go into shock...SEA is actually cooler than it is here today.  Only 64 at 4PM.

[Phil]

Well, the 18z GEFS looks nothing like the operational run.

 

Huge NPAC trough, but it establishes to the S/SW of the Aleutians, which keeps the NEPAC ridge going, along with the western trough.

[Weather101]

Amazon sucks

[Trainwreck]

Thanks FR. Now how about AAM?

[snow_wizard]

Thanks FR. Now how about AAM?

 

Atmospheric angular momentum.  A negative anomaly equates to stronger than normal easterly winds or weaker than normal westerly winds depending on latitude.  It is measured globally.  The best site for monitoring that was taken down a year ago, because the scientist who ran it retired.

[Bryant]

Atmospheric angular momentum. A negative anomaly equates to stronger than normal easterly winds or weaker than normal westerly winds depending on latitude. It is measured globally. The best site for monitoring that was taken down a year ago, because the scientist who ran it retired.

http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/nschiral/gwo.html

[Phil]

http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/nschiral/gwo.html

Yeah, that's a nice site for easy tracking. The GEFS has an outrageous low AAM bias in the extended range, though.

[snow_wizard]

http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/nschiral/gwo.html

 

Thanks!  That is a pretty decent site.  I'm glad somebody took over monitoring this important index.

[Phil]

Nice to see that many of the analogs we've discussed here are popping up frequently on the CPC site. Most frequent showings seem to be 1959, 1961, 1967, 1983, and 1995.

 

I think 1959 has popped up on every GFS run since Tuesday.

[MossMan]

Guess I didn't follow this weekend modeling closely enough...thought it was supposed to be a dry weekend...but it's raining up here.

[TT-SEA]

Guess I didn't follow this weekend modeling closely enough...thought it was supposed to be a dry weekend...but it's raining up here.

 

Warm fronts are pure evil sometimes.    Story of lives for the next 6 months... usually under a warm front but it never gets warm.  

[snow_wizard]

Nice GFS run tonight.  Amazing how the heights keep finding ways to remain high over the GOA.  It appears we may see some pretty impressive below normal temps later next week.  The details are a bit different than previous troughs.

[Phil]

Awesome EPO block on the 00z GFS..completes a full break cycle then blows right back up.

[snow_wizard]

I'd be a bit concerned if I lived on the Gulf Coast right now.  The models are really zeroing in on a major hurricane.  Incredible consistency.

[snow_wizard]

Awesome EPO block on the 00z GFS..completes a full break cycle then blows right back up.

 

I'm really getting excited how things have been playing out lately.  It's been years since we have seen this recurring blocking over the GOA.

[Phil]

I'd be a bit concerned if I lived on the Gulf Coast right now. The models are really zeroing in on a major hurricane. Incredible consistency.

Shades of hurricane Ivan with this one.

[Phil]

I'm really getting excited how things have been playing out lately. It's been years since we have seen this recurring blocking over the GOA.

I don't blame you. I'd be excited too..a bunch of variables are aligning quite magnificently as of late.

[TT-SEA]

I'd be a bit concerned if I lived on the Gulf Coast right now.  The models are really zeroing in on a major hurricane.  Incredible consistency.

 

 

Two weeks out??    Come on.

[Phil]

Two weeks out?? Come on.

To his credit, this wave is entering a very favorable environment, hence the model agreement. We're talking 30C+ SSTs, and a CCKW superimposition there.

 

This one has legs, IMO.

[TT-SEA]

To his credit, this wave is entering a very favorable environment, hence the model agreement. We're talking 30C+ SSTs, and a CCKW superimposition there.

 

This one has legs, IMO.

 

 

Much can change in 2 days let alone 2 weeks.   

[Phil]

Much can change in 2 days let alone 2 weeks.

That's true, but I think the odds favor this one. The CCKW isn't going to vanish, nor will the wave or the 30C+ SSTs it'll encounter in the Caribbean.