September 2016 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[Phil]

hopefully they actually do something this time.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/ocean/nino34.png

Can't say I have an explanation for the SSTA warming, save maybe instability waves and/or differential climatology?

 

However, it doesn't really matter in the short term, IMO. The strong trades over the Pacific, in tandem with the westerlies over the Indian Ocean, reflect a coherent Niña Walker Cell/convective state. So, as long as that continues, the extratropical circulations will emulate a Niña, regardless of SSTAs.

[Front Ranger]

No kidding... a couple weeks ago all the hype was about the strongest trade wind burst in history and the ENSO regions warmed anyways.  

 

To be fair, a couple weeks ago 3.4 was at its coolest point yet. It then warmed after that.

[ShawniganLake]

To be fair, a couple weeks ago 3.4 was at its coolest point yet. It then warmed after that.

Yes, but the warming commenced and has continued when the trade winds became more favourable.  ~Sept.10th. 

[Phil]

My post on Atlantic ACE was incorrect. Should have said lowest ACE of any year to obtain climatological average by season's end.

[Front Ranger]

Yes, but the warming commenced and has continued when the trade winds became more favourable.  ~Sept.10th. 

 

Well, some of it depends on which ENSO region you're looking at and where the wind anomalies are.

 

Either way, I'd bet good money (at least $10) that October is cooler than September in the ENSO regions.

[TT-SEA]

Brrrr... GFS MOS shows 57 at SEA tomorrow.

[stuffradio]

Brrrr... GFS MOS shows 57 at SEA tomorrow.

Get yer tuque's out!

[Jesse]

12z GFS must not have trended toward the Euro.

[TT-SEA]

12z GFS must not have trended toward the Euro.

 

 

Shut up Jesse...  I have been reporting on colder and warmer runs.       Dewey is right... you are just looking for trouble all the time.   

 

12Z GFS is a pretty nice run.   Ridge breaks down but trough axis stays offshore and to the north for most of next week.  

 

Canadian is about the same.

 

Looks like very nice weather ahead.  

[Jesse]

Seems to be a lot of cloud cover around this morning. Mid 60s are possible today for the Portland area.

[TT-SEA]

Canadian looks pretty weak with a break down in the middle of next week...

 

http://img.meteocentre.com/models/gemglb_amer_12/GZ_D5_PN_156_0000.gif

 

 

GFS basically agrees...

 

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gfs/12/namer/500_vort_ht/gfs_namer_156_500_vort_ht.gif

[Jesse]

Wow, the 12z GFS ensembles are the coolest yet.

[ShawniganLake]

Wow, the 12z GFS ensembles are the coolest yet.

Could you post the Portland one, I'm curious. The Vancouver ensemble chart has been largely unchanged the past couple days. Quick ridge then down to climo through the long range.

[TT-SEA]

Another gorgeous day... sunny and pleasant here.

[TT-SEA]

Could you post the Portland one, I'm curious. The Vancouver ensemble chart has been largely unchanged the past couple days. Quick ridge then down to climo through the long range.

 

 

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_Portland_Oregon_USA_ens.png

 

 

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_Vancouver_Kanada_ens.png

[TT-SEA]

Perfect day...

 

http://s14.postimg.org/a7xbpu941/sea89.png

[ShawniganLake]

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_Portland_Oregon_USA_ens.png

 

 

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_Vancouver_Kanada_ens.png

What a huge difference. Haven't seen the models, is the troughing focussed that much more to the south?

[BLI snowman]

Seems to be a lot of cloud cover around this morning. Mid 60s are possible today for the Portland area.

 

Will keep the lows up tonight, though. Good chance tomorrow afternoon at least cracks 60.

[BLI snowman]

What a huge difference. Haven't seen the models, is the troughing focussed that much more to the south?

 

There just isn't a huge gap between PDX and YVR, it's a pretty uniform cool airmass. 850mb temps do get a little lower over PDX by fantasyland.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Starting to clear out down here in Salem. I see the meteostar only shows a high of 56 here tomorrow...That would translate to a high in the upper 40s up at my place.

[TT-SEA]

Only 56 at SEA at noon... went down a degree.     On the edge of the marine layer field.

[luminen]

Perfect day...

 

http://s14.postimg.org/a7xbpu941/sea89.png

 

Looks the same here.

 

This was two days ago though:

[Timmy Supercell]

Oh my gawd... this area seriously cannot put the sun on hold for more than.... 12 hours. Cannot wait for deep Fall season to kick in here.

[Timmy Supercell]

Perfect day...

 

http://s14.postimg.org/a7xbpu941/sea89.png

 

That's my area 24/7/365.

[Front Ranger]

Looks the same here.

 

This was two days ago though:

 

Is that a flock of birds or just something weird with the photo in front of the cloud?

[Kayla]

12z ECMWF says PDX has one more 90 left in him on Monday. Highest its shown yet for that day. We'll see what the 12z EPS shows.

 

Still only looking like a two day warm spell though.

[Weather101]

61F and sunny. Love it.

[Trainwreck]

That's my area 24/7/365.

And mine. It gets really old. Redmond Oregon averages over 280 days a year of sun. Yuck

[Front Ranger]

And mine. It gets really old. Redmond Oregon averages over 280 days a year of sun. Yuck

 

Here they like to claim 300 days of sun a year. Which people seem to think means 300 sunny days/year, but it's actually based on sunny or partly sunny (40%+ sun) days.

 

Same there, I assume?

[MossMan]

And mine. It gets really old. Redmond Oregon averages over 280 days a year of sun. Yuck

Sounds like my kind of place! Sign me up!

[Jesse]

Nice to see the Euro finally trend much cooler. In line with the other models and its ensembles.

[Timmy Supercell]

Here they like to claim 300 days of sun a year. Which people seem to think means 300 sunny days/year, but it's actually based on sunny or partly sunny (40%+ sun) days.

 

Same there, I assume?

 

Yeah, I believe that count also includes days there are clouds but sunbreaks. So if the sun "shines" at any point in the day, that's 300+

[Jesse]

Will keep the lows up tonight, though. Good chance tomorrow afternoon at least cracks 60.

Clearing up a bit now. I think low 50s sound good for tonight.

 

Tomorrow will be a close call for 60 regardless.

[Jesse]

Sounds like my kind of place! Sign me up!

A move to a warmer and sunnier climate would definitely be a good choice for you.

[Trainwreck]

Here they like to claim 300 days of sun a year. Which people seem to think means 300 sunny days/year, but it's actually based on sunny or partly sunny (40%+ sun) days.

 

 

 

Same there, I assume?

Yes. They claim over 300 but it's more like 275. I will tell you though, it gets old with constant sun year round. Even in winter it's sunny.

[BLI snowman]

Clearing up a bit now. I think low 50s sound good for tonight.

 

Tomorrow will be a close call for 60 regardless.

 

Gonna be a good old fashioned gunk fest for sure.

[Jesse]

Gonna be a good old fashioned gunk fest for sure.

We all need a little gunk sometimes.

[TT-SEA]

Late September perfection out there... mostly sunny and 68.  

[stuffradio]

Yes. They claim over 300 but it's more like 275. I will tell you though, it gets old with constant sun year round. Even in winter it's sunny.

You could always move up here, where it's constantly cloudy in the late fall/winter/spring.

[Kayla]

Clearing up a bit now. I think low 50s sound good for tonight.

 

Tomorrow will be a close call for 60 regardless.

 

Seems like a "perfect storm" tomorrow for those interested in cold anomalies. Looks to be a perfectly timed warm front that will allow temps to fall down into the low 50's overnight tonight with the muck beginning around commute time or shortly thereafter. 

 

ECWMF says 59º for a high tomorrow. EPS mean sits at 61º. GFS MOS guidance sits 59º.

 

It's actually too bad that the record low, high is only 54º tomorrow.