September 2016 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[TT-SEA]

18Z GFS is progressive like the 12Z GFS.

[Abbotsford_wx]

Nice early fall day... 46/75, mostly sunny, crisp and breezy. East wind helping our temp this afternoon, but still managed a cool morning low.

[luminen]

Only 62F for a high today here. Nice and sunny though. 

[Phil]

Forcing is very close to being "great" for winter prospects. A burst of tropical convection has developed around 120E, which is slightly west of where we want it. A classic Niña signal, but comes with risks of +EPO/equatorward NPAC anticyclones.

 

Ideally, I'd like to see this convection relocate towards 150E for a more "assured" poleward NPAC block/-EPO:

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/1EE62D61-9EEA-409B-8670-F8CD6B6B7EB9_zpspgqlkd7j.jpg

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Some pretty big thunderstorms have developed along the east side of the Willamette Valley this afternoon. A big one just north of Silverton right now and down towards Lebanon. A lot of visible lightning and audible thunder here. 

[Trainwreck]

Love this forum. It's so funny to read.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Constant thunder now. 

[TT-SEA]

Constant thunder now. 

 

 

I was just driving home and heard lightning static on AM radio and saw lightning from somewhere despite a crystal clear sky above.

 

There is a cell off to the northeast and another one to the southeast here... but they are quite a distance away.

[MossMan]

I was just driving home and heard lightning static on AM radio and saw lightning from somewhere despite a crystal clear sky above.

 

There is a cell off to the northeast and another one to the southeast here... but they are quite a distance away.

Nice looking cell right over Hwy 2 right now. I was also hearing the Lightning static while listening to AM as well over the last few days! Been bumpy around here this week!

[MossMan]

Love this forum. It's so funny to read.

It's much like your username sometimes!

[VancouverIslandSouth]

The Friday system seems to be coming in a bit faster than original forecast. It'll be interesting to see if it holds together down to the Olympic Peninsula. It still looks like it falls apart pretty rapidly and it's running into a bit of a strange atmospheric configuration, but it may yet surprise us.

[Phil]

Can already tell by d7 that the 00z is gonna be "meh".

[snow_wizard]

The GFS has been incredibly consistent with the big trough next week and thicknesses falling to around 540.  Not bad at all!

 

No doubt SEA is showing it warm bias colors with the current cool period.  A low of 52 this morning is a joke considering it dropped to 42 here.

[snow_wizard]

Can already tell by d7 that the 00z is gonna be "meh".

 

A 1040 mb surface high over the GOA is pretty good for meh.

[Phil]

A 1040 mb surface high over the GOA is pretty good for meh.

Well, I was (jokingly) referring the clown range beyond d7. Not really worth discussing yet.

 

Poleward of 50N over the NPAC, there's almost zero meridional momentum exchange by d7. That's..well, not good.

[snow_wizard]

Well, I was (jokingly) referring the clown range beyond d7. Not really worth discussing yet.

 

Poleward of 50N over the NPAC, there's almost zero meridional momentum exchange by d7. That's..well, not good.

 

At this point week two is in pretty big doubt obviously.

[Phil]

At this point week two is in pretty big doubt obviously.

Of course. I was only half serious.

 

Obviously, the 00z GFS is an outlier for now.

[Front Ranger]

Happy fall, y'all.

[snow_wizard]

Happy fall, y'all.

 

For sure!

 

It seems like fall has been here for a while already though.  We're already getting some fall color.

[Jesse]

Happy fall, y'all.

You're three weeks late.

[Deweydog]

Was there even a summer at all?

[Front Ranger]

You're three weeks late.

Even non-meteorologists must now acknowledge that summer is over. Unless they're Indian.

[Phil]

[stuffradio]

You're three weeks late.

Astronomically, he's right on time! (sort of)

[Jesse]

Was there even a summer at all?

Considering some locations in the western lowlands started seeing 90s as early as the first week of April, and were still flirting with 100 less than a month ago, I would say yes.

 

Probably not enough for you. But we certainly had one.

[Deweydog]

Considering some locations in the western lowlands starting seeing 90s as early as the first week of April, and were still flirting with 100 less than a month ago, I would say yes.

 

Probably not enough for you. But we certainly had one.

Man, you gotta settle down.

[Jesse]

Man, you gotta settle down.

I know. I've been out of control lately.

 

Truly the summer without a summer!

[snow_wizard]

The GFS ensemble has grown impressively ccol for the Sept 29 through October 5 period.  The warm interlude has been noticeably nibbled away on this run.

[Phil]

The 00z GEFS look much improved over the NPAC during week2.

 

Ridge is sharper/poleward, downstream western trough is also deeper. No sign of that PV-from-Hoth, as depicted by the operational GFS.

[Jesse]

The GFS ensemble has grown impressively ccol for the Sept 29 through October 5 period.  The warm interlude has been noticeably nibbled away on this run.

 

I was just about to post about the same thing!

[Deweydog]

I know. I've been out of control lately.

 

Truly the summer without a summer!

You've just seemed super punchy the last few days, and not just to me.

[snow_wizard]

The WRF still insists on a very cool day Friday.  I will be interested to see how it plays out.  It now shows Saturday being pretty cool also.

[Phil]

The GFS ensemble has grown impressively ccol for the Sept 29 through October 5 period. The warm interlude has been noticeably nibbled away on this run.

Ninja'd.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Great shot my friend took in Salem tonight.

 

 

Photo Credit: Jon SImonsen 

[Jesse]

Great shot my friend took in Salem tonight.

 

 

Photo Credit: Jon SImonsen 

 

May the power of Christ compel you!

[Deweydog]

Great shot my friend took in Salem tonight.

 

 

Photo Credit: Jon SImonsen

Jesus.

 

Roadhouse.

[Jesse]

You've just seemed super punchy the last few days, and not just to me.

 

Yup!

[Jesse]

00z ensembles are certainly much improved.

[snow_wizard]

Great shot my friend took in Salem tonight.

 

 

Photo Credit: Jon SImonsen 

 

Pretty nice for cold core storms.  This is actually a pretty dynamic pattern we are in.

[Jesse]

Pretty nice for cold core storms.  This is actually a pretty dynamic pattern we are in.

 

The pattern the last 5-6 days has been pretty awesome.

 

Looks to continue that way for awhile. The Friday through mid next week period has the potential to be especially dynamic.