September 2016 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[luminen]

52.5F and drizzling at YVR. 

[MossMan]

55, cloudy, and breezy here.

[TT-SEA]

Sun peaking out at times here now... even more to my west.

 

http://s11.postimg.org/ctbj4f843/090vc02567_2.jpg

[Deweydog]

Sun peaking out at times here now... even more to my west.

 

http://s11.postimg.org/ctbj4f843/090vc02567_2.jpg

Any casualties thus far?

[TT-SEA]

Pretty bright now in Seattle as well... no longer the gunkfest it was earlier.  

 

http://s15.postimg.org/7agc9f71n/sea54.png

[Timmy Supercell]

Finally an overcast day! I feel the need to celebrate this.

 

First day since..... sometime in March? (not counting convective days, completely different animal in meteorology)

[TT-SEA]

Totally cleared out in Seattle now... faster than models were showing.

 

http://s14.postimg.org/hdq7yhzk1/sea57.png

[snow_wizard]

The GFS ensemble continues to look colder for early October.  Nice looking trough depicted for that time.

[snow_wizard]

Wow, long range opens up the faucet with more than 5" of rain. Good thing that changes every 6 hours.

 

Phil, 2007 had decent snowstorms here though, so that wouldn't be bad. I don't know how it was further south though.

 

It sucked below 800 feet down here.  We can do much better than that.

[snow_wizard]

That's a pretty wicked trough next Saturday on the euro. 850's may drop below 0 with that.

 

That kind of pattern in a cold ENSO October is always a good sign for winter.

[TT-SEA]

SEA managed to sneak up to 63 late today... only got a -2 on the day.

 

I guess we weren't due for a significant cold anomaly day.

 

Portland put up a healthy -5 and 'owned' SEA again.   

[Front Ranger]

SEA managed to sneak up to 63 late today... only got a -2 on the day.

 

I guess we weren't due for a significant cold anomaly day.

 

Portland put up a healthy -5 and 'owned' SEA again.

SEA gets owned on a regular basis when it comes to cool anomalies...

[snow_wizard]

SEA gets owned on a regular basis when it comes to cool anomalies...

 

I guess that's true now.  It didn't used to be to such an extent.

[TT-SEA]

I have noticed that the ECMWF has had a tendency to be too aggressive lately in the 7-10 period.   

 

Here is what the middle of next week looked like earlier this week...

 

http://stream.ecmwf.int/data/atls20/data/data01/scratch/ps2png-atls20-95e2cf679cd58ee9b4db4dd119a05a8d-z9bbre.png

 

And now the same time from the 12Z run now that its 5 days away...

 

http://stream.ecmwf.int/data/atls19/data/data01/scratch/ps2png-atls19-95e2cf679cd58ee9b4db4dd119a05a8d-L12fjh.png

 

The trough it shows now on day 8 might be close enough to hold up though.  Its very impressive looking.   

 

http://stream.ecmwf.int/data/atls20/data/data01/scratch/ps2png-atls20-95e2cf679cd58ee9b4db4dd119a05a8d-Tfhun6.png

[Deweydog]

I have noticed that the ECMWF has had a tendency to be too aggressive lately in the 7-10 period.

 

Here is what the middle of next week looked like earlier this week...

 

http://stream.ecmwf.int/data/atls20/data/data01/scratch/ps2png-atls20-95e2cf679cd58ee9b4db4dd119a05a8d-z9bbre.png

 

And now the same time from the 12Z run now that its 5 days away...

 

http://stream.ecmwf.int/data/atls19/data/data01/scratch/ps2png-atls19-95e2cf679cd58ee9b4db4dd119a05a8d-L12fjh.png

 

The trough it shows now on day 8 might be close enough to hold up though. Its very impressive looking.

 

http://stream.ecmwf.int/data/atls20/data/data01/scratch/ps2png-atls20-95e2cf679cd58ee9b4db4dd119a05a8d-Tfhun6.png

Hmmm...

 

Models tending to be too aggressive with anomalies in the long range. We should probably look into this.

[luminen]

It rained all day today but it finally stopped just after 7pm.

[TT-SEA]

Hmmm...

 

Models tending to be too aggressive with anomalies in the long range. We should probably look into this.

 

Sort of bored... watching a 10-1 Mariners win.  

[Weather101]

Only hit 54F for a high today.

[catnip]

Stay safe if you are in Burlington this evening, sad news.

[snow_wizard]

The 0z GFS is majestic with the block as of day 6.  I am really liking this.

[TT-SEA]

The 0z GFS is majestic with the block as of day 6.  I am really liking this.

 

Looks good at 192 hours... actually higher heights and drier than the 12Z run at that time but the block looks much nicer.

 

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gfs/00/namer/500_vort_ht/gfs_namer_192_500_vort_ht.gif

[snow_wizard]

Thicknesses drop to 537 on this run.  It kind of sucks after day 10, but that's too far out to worry about yet.

[Bryant]

Stay safe if you are in Burlington this evening, sad news.

 

Just south of my location, very sad indeed. Been listening to the scanner for over an hour, still haven't found the suspect 

[TT-SEA]

00Z GFS goes from the block above to this just 4 days later...

 

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gfs/00/namer/500_vort_ht/gfs_namer_288_500_vort_ht.gif

[snow_wizard]

Just south of my location, very sad indeed. Been listening to the scanner for over an hour, still haven't found the suspect 

 

Anyone care to say what's going on?

[Phil]

Tim is gonna love this GFS run.

[TT-SEA]

Anyone care to say what's going on?

 

Check the news Jim.   You are on a computer.

[TT-SEA]

Tim is gonna love this GFS run.

 

 

Volatile situation...  can't count on anything.   I just wonder if we are going to flip to a warm pattern for October though.   Would not surprise me if the most important month to predict winter ends up being warm in the West just to make people worry.   Long range models certainly have been hinting at that happening.

[Timmy Supercell]

Anyone care to say what's going on?

 

A shooter at Cascade Mall in Burlington.

[Phil]

Terrible. We (as a species) have a problem, and I think it's innately primal.

[snow_wizard]

Tim is gonna love this GFS run.

 

I certainly do up until day 10 or so.  I'm not too worried about the longer range given the recent trend of the models to prolong the troughing and shorten the ridging as the time frames narrow.

[TT-SEA]

I certainly do up until day 10 or so.  I'm not too worried about the longer range given the recent trend of the models to prolong the troughing and shorten the ridging as the time frames narrow.

 

 

That could change again... July was like that and then August seemed to stay ridgy longer than the models showed.    Could certainly go back to that in October.   

[Phil]

I certainly do up until day 10 or so. I'm not too worried about the longer range given the recent trend of the models to prolong the troughing and shorten the ridging as the time frames narrow.

I think there will be a period of ridging in October, but how long it lasts is another question, in my opinion.

 

The GFS starts the process faster than I've been thinking, but then again I've had a slow bias all summer, so yeah.

[Deweydog]

I bet the ensembles are weaker with the ridge in the long range.

[snow_wizard]

I think there will be a period of ridging in October, but how long it lasts is another question, in my opinion.

 

The GFS starts the process faster than I've been thinking, but then again I've had a slow bias all summer, so yeah.

 

There could be, but that GOA ridge has been incredibly resilient this season.  October is the month I'm really pulling for, because of the historical link of cold Octobers to cold winters with cold ENSO.  Let November torch all it wants.

[snow_wizard]

I bet the ensembles are weaker with the ridge in the long range.

 

Ya think?

[Phil]

There could be, but that GOA ridge has been incredibly resilient this season. October is the month I'm really pulling for, because of the historical link of cold Octobers to cold winters with cold ENSO. Let November torch all it wants.

I think if anything, the opposite has been true in recent years. Note that the higher-performing -ENSO winters this century (2008/09, 2010/11, and 2013/14) were fairly ridgy in October, while the crappier -ENSO winters (2005/06, 2007/08, 2011/12) were generally troughier and/or zonal.

 

Also, the Octobers preceding 1978/79 and 1988/89 were generally warm/ridgy. So, I don't think there's a huge correlation here.

[MossMan]

Terrible. We (as a species) have a problem, and I think it's innately primal.

I know this is a tad off topic but this evening before the shooting my wife, daughter and myself were at a local restaurant having dinner and I kept thinking to myself what if someone comes in and starts shooting, what is our best exit routes, ect...not exactly a fun relaxing time. Then we get home and hear about the mall shooting which is only 20 minutes from us and at a place I have been to many many times through the years. I just don't like being out in public anymore which I guess means the bad guys have won. This country really needs to look at the mental health crisis instead of looking the other way.

Anyway back to weather...

[Weather101]

I know this is a tad off topic but this evening before the shooting my wife, daughter and myself were at a local restaurant having dinner and I kept thinking to myself what if someone comes in and starts shooting, what is our best exit routes, ect...not exactly a fun relaxing time. Then we get home and hear about the mall shooting which is only 20 minutes from us and at a place I have been to many many times through the years. I just don't like being out in public anymore which I guess means the bad guys have won. This country really needs to look at the mental health crisis instead of looking the other way.

Anyway back to weather...

I think the issue is when you have 320 million people in a country then the likely hood of things like this can happen. It seems know a days people who get bullied, or picked on there whole lives know take there anger out in violence and by killing people. It's really scary how teenagers can get there hands on weapons very easily. The sad truth of our reality is that know a days violence is a way of life and unfortunately (Police/Regular citizens can take a life away. Even in places with low population you have to be aware of your surroundings. Mental illness is another issue of it's own but as you said they need to do something about it. We shouldn't be afraid to go out and enjoy our lives but that's what it's coming too.

[Phil]

I know this is a tad off topic but this evening before the shooting my wife, daughter and myself were at a local restaurant having dinner and I kept thinking to myself what if someone comes in and starts shooting, what is our best exit routes, ect...not exactly a fun relaxing time. Then we get home and hear about the mall shooting which is only 20 minutes from us and at a place I have been to many many times through the years. I just don't like being out in public anymore which I guess means the bad guys have won. This country really needs to look at the mental health crisis instead of looking the other way.

Anyway back to weather...

Couldn't agree more. The mental health aspect is quite complicated, unfortunately. Thoughts don't physically exist, and asserting who should/shouldn't have access to a gun based on hypotheticals could open multiple cans of worms.

 

I've also found myself analyzing my surrounding environment on a more frequent basis, almost subconsciously. Hopefully one day I won't have to.