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September 2016 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest


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It was seriously so dry there was no green left?  I had no idea it was that bad up there.

 

Nothing green left on the ground cover and many of the trees/shrubs dried out and lost their leaves. Things are looking much better now. We picked up another 0.2" in some quick hitting convective showers this morning and things are looking pretty dynamic on the radar. It sure beats the generally rainless systems of the past couple months.

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Perhaps even below freezing all the way down in Oregon too on the 00z min temps!

 

If you're referring to the lowlands, that's good. Here

Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 21
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 3/30, 3/31, 4/2, 4/3, 4/8, 5/4, 5/5, 5/6, 5/7
5/8, 

Severe storms: 2

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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Does anyone here think there is any validity to Accuweather's long-range forecast of rain everyday starting around October 16, and continuing thru the 29th?  They have been advertising the same thing now for the past several days....

"Avoiding unwanted weather is a key element of happiness."

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Does anyone here think there is any validity to Accuweather's long-range forecast of rain everyday starting around October 16, and continuing thru the 29th?  They have been advertising the same thing now for the past several days....

 

:lol:

 

Climo?

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Does anyone here think there is any validity to Accuweather's long-range forecast of rain everyday starting around October 16, and continuing thru the 29th?  They have been advertising the same thing now for the past several days....

Not likely, I think those forecasts are a blend of climo and the CFS

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12z GFS never breaks the ridge into Alaska. Result is a flat western ridge through the rest of the run.

 

Need that initial ridge as poleward as possible.

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Not likely, I think those forecasts are a blend of climo and the CFS

 

 

Latest CFSv2 is pretty chilly across the entire West for most of October.   Expect the opposite of whatever it shows!

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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12z GFS never breaks the ridge into Alaska. Result is a flat western ridge through the rest of the run.

 

Need that initial ridge as poleward as possible.

 

 

12Z GFS is a lovely run.  

 

I know... it will never verify.   Don't bother telling me.   ;)

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Are you sure?

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/monthly/images/CFSv2.NaT2m.20160919.201610.gif

 

 

I was looking at the more recent sub-monthly run that goes out 45 days and came out overnight.    The run above is a day old now and of course the new run is the opposite again.  :)

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Latest update (the other site is still 2 days behind)... actually looks like a weak Nino if you look at only the eastern part of the ENSO region.    Definitely a west-based Nina now which is supposed to be good for us.

 

http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/sst/anomaly/2016/anomnight.9.19.2016.gif

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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I was looking at the more recent sub-monthly run that goes out 45 days and came out overnight.    The run above is a day old now and of course the new run is the opposite again.   :)

So, should we expect the opposite of the day-old run, or the new run.  You said to expect the opposite of whatever it shows.... :)

"Avoiding unwanted weather is a key element of happiness."

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So, should we expect the opposite of the day-old run, or the new run.  You said to expect the opposite of whatever it shows.... :)

 

Sarcasm... its worthless as your comment illustrates.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Latest update (the other site is still 2 days behind)... actually looks like a weak Nino if you look at only the eastern part of the ENSO region. Definitely a west-based Nina now which is supposed to be good for us.

 

http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/sst/anomaly/2016/anomnight.9.19.2016.gif

"The other site" is definitely not 2 days behind

 

http://i.imgur.com/a5ylgkK.jpg

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"The other site" is definitely not 2 days behind

 

http://i.imgur.com/a5ylgkK.jpg

 

 

This is the most recent image on this site that Phil linked me to recently...

 

http://coralreefwatch.noaa.gov/satellite/bleaching5km/images_current/cur_b05kmnn_ssta_large.gif

 

 

http://coralreefwatch.noaa.gov/satellite/bleaching5km/index.php

 

And now in the last 10 minutes it updated to 9/18.

 

It is so different... I am trying to fool you.    :lol:

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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I was actually being serious....  Can we attach any validity to the CFS, seeing as how it vacillates so wildly from one run to the next?

 

 

It appears not.   

 

Until I had daily access... I did not know it completely flipped around with every run.   

 

Don't like what it shows... wait until the next run and it will be exactly what you want.   Then ignore the next run after that.  :)

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Actually... the WRF shows a solid marine layer day on Saturday with a building ridge.   That is the only day that is shown to be totally socked in... so that will not be a warm day regardless of the 500mb pattern.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Pretty good ensemble support for the warm weekend on the 12z GFS. That's a shame.

 

Maybe the 12z Euro will trend better.

Last night I was actually excited about a possible frost in less than 10 days. I'll settle for the warm/dry though. I wonder when was the last time I had frost in September. I don't think in my life time, at least not that I can remember.

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Last night I was actually excited about a possible frost in less than 10 days. I'll settle for the warm/dry though. I wonder when was the last time I had frost in September. I don't think in my life time, at least not that I can remember.

 

 

Might take awhile for it to get all the way around to warm AND dry up there.  

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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I'm not talking about today.

 

 

I am talking about early next week as well.

 

The pattern is probably going to be a situation where the clouds and even some rain linger up in southern BC and NW WA even with a building ridge.     This is based mostly on my memory of this type of pattern in the fall.  

 

Here is next Monday on the WRF:

 

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/wrfrt/data/current_extended/images_d2/intcld.180.0000.gif

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Last night I was actually excited about a possible frost in less than 10 days. I'll settle for the warm/dry though. I wonder when was the last time I had frost in September. I don't think in my life time, at least not that I can remember.

September 2012, I was in Lynden, Washington and there was frost in the early mornings of the last 2 days of September...  I don't think temperatures officially made it all the way down to 32, more like 34 or 35 or something, just enough for frost to occur....

"Avoiding unwanted weather is a key element of happiness."

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Might take awhile for it to get all the way around to warm AND dry up there.

Probably less of a concern with what the euro is showing. Heights pushing 590 next weekend. I mentioned this last week but I think there will be some warmth during the last week of the month.
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Probably less of a concern with what the euro is showing. Heights pushing 590 next weekend. I mentioned this last week but I think there will be some warmth during the last week of the month.

 

 

Wow... I just took a look at the new ECMWF coming out.    I agree with you now.  

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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12Z GFS is a lovely run.

 

I know... it will never verify. Don't bother telling me. ;)

It might. I have no idea..complicated progression with lots of moving parts.

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Latest update (the other site is still 2 days behind)... actually looks like a weak Nino if you look at only the eastern part of the ENSO region. Definitely a west-based Nina now which is supposed to be good for us.

 

http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/sst/anomaly/2016/anomnight.9.19.2016.gif

Well, a +QBO generally favors west-based Niñas via reducing Equatorial Pacific convection (lower/warmer tropopause) relative to the -QBO (higher/cooler tropopause).

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You realize that 1985 was one of the coldest falls of the airport era, right?

 

Also, October 2008 was notably chilly, with an early frost for many locations. Some early snow to pass level as well.

 

October seems to have a better track record at predicting the winter regime than the other autumn months, from what I can tell.

More of a crapshoot with September/November.

Yeah, I've made several posts over the years about the cues October can provide.

A forum for the end of the world.

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Nice day.  

 

Southern edge of a strong SW-NE orientated c-zone visible over the Sound.

 

http://s21.postimg.org/4eimuosh3/sea56.png

 

http://s13.postimg.org/tuq4hsrl3/ATX_0.png

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Holy s**t, Tim. Stop it. That's enough. What is wrong with you?????

 

 

Doing my best to try and calm down the intense fear and anxiety over what could be 2-3 days of warmer weather.   It is tragic and shocking but somehow we can get through it.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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