September 2016 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[snow_wizard]

Marine push!

 

Nah...the surface high complex over the North Pacific is in the process of rotating so it would tap into the high latitudes shortly after day 10.  There has been much hinting in the models that some kind of a cool Canadian air mass will find its way in here by the end of the month.  Tonight's GFS ensemble has a lot of chilly members at months end.

[Phil]

Good lord, fella. Since you keep bringing it up - no, I don't have Autism. Or Aspergers. Or anything like that.

 

You just don't like being questioned, so you resort to insults. Including accusing those that disagree with you of having mental illnesses.

You're not making any sense.

 

You didn't "question" or disagree with me, at all. You just dismissed the 500mb reanalyses I posted as "colorful maps" that were useless/not needed, because (in your words) "everyone knows what January 1943 did". This was, in fact, completely irrelevant to what I was discussing (large scale similarities in circulation/pattern progression), and I'd never claimed to know anything about PNW history. You were rightfully called out by numerous individuals as a result.

 

So, can you really blame me for thinking you might have a mental disability? After the forum (that you claimed to speak for) rebuked your assertion, you continued the charade as if you were unaware of the feedback you'd received. Reading social cues definitely isn't your strong suit, and it shows.

 

So, either you're autistic and cannot help yourself, or you're an individual with very low self esteem, and looking to compensate for that. Regardless, I feel sorry for you.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1.65" of rain in the past 24 hours. 

[ShawniganLake]

Nah...the surface high complex over the North Pacific is in the process of rotating so it would tap into the high latitudes shortly after day 10. There has been much hinting in the models that some kind of a cool Canadian air mass will find its way in here by the end of the month. Tonight's GFS ensemble has a lot of chilly members at months end.

The 6Z agrees with this analysis. Chilly long range.

[Phil]

Very impressive -EPO/-NAM signal on the d11-15 00z EPS:

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/AAE831A9-4E90-4BA9-A954-E4FA470941E2_zpsunlzvz1p.png

 

Assuming this pattern verifies overall, it'll be the strongest October -EPO/-NAM in a -ENSO year since 1942, perhaps even stronger depending on how long it lasts and/or how it evolves through time. Even October of 2013 doesn't come close in either regard, and that was a very impressive block.

[Farmboy]

I love this forum.

It does have entertainment value...

[TT-SEA]

Beautiful sunny morning here.

[Jesse]

Very impressive -EPO/-NAM signal on the d11-15 00z EPS:

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/AAE831A9-4E90-4BA9-A954-E4FA470941E2_zpsunlzvz1p.png

 

Assuming this pattern verifies overall, it'll be the strongest October -EPO/-NAM in a -ENSO year since 1942, perhaps even stronger depending on how long it lasts and/or how it evolves through time. Even October of 2013 doesn't come close in either regard, and that was a very impressive block.

Sounds like you're starting to get a better idea of how October might play out?

[Phil]

Always good to be cautious before jumping to conclusions regarding the long range pattern, however. For example, here's what October 1-7, 1998 looked like @ 500mb. Obviously somewhat similar to the modeled early October pattern, however, both that month (and the following winter) were relatively unremarkable, December notwithstanding.

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/4FA702B8-8C02-4206-A3FF-28FDAFD853F7_zpsfyqh5l4g.gif

[Phil]

Sounds like you're starting to get a better idea of how October might play out?

Maybe somewhat. I've screwed up October more than I have any other month, though. It's always a challenge because there are numerous systematic seasonal transitions ongoing, including the development of the PV and corresponding cold season equator/pole interactive conduits, the termination of the IO monsoonal cell, the rapid equatorward propagation of the ITCZ/Hadley Cells, so on.

 

These transitions can sometimes provide clues as to how the "stable" systematic background wants to conform. However, usually this is only helpful in years with a coherent ENSO/systematic background to begin with. Years with more unstable background states (no equilibrator present) aren't preconditioned to equilibrative conformity.

 

I hope to have a much better idea within a week. I can't guarantee that I will, though. If this were a coherent ENSO w/ more climatologically normal exchanges (such as last year), that'd be another story.

[TT-SEA]

Juuuuust a bit nicer today...

 

[snow_wizard]

Very impressive -EPO/-NAM signal on the d11-15 00z EPS:

 

 

Assuming this pattern verifies overall, it'll be the strongest October -EPO/-NAM in a -ENSO year since 1942, perhaps even stronger depending on how long it lasts and/or how it evolves through time. Even October of 2013 doesn't come close in either regard, and that was a very impressive block.

 

1942 has really risen to the top as an analog.  A year that has been talked about off and on for a while now.

[snow_wizard]

At this point it appears October has a good shot at starting out cold, but I'm still hesitant to say the month itself will be cold.  I would certainly like it to be, but years such as 1942 and 1988 show it doesn't have to be.  At any rate that 6z run was pretty majestic!

[VancouverIslandSouth]

Juuuuust a bit nicer today...

 

 

The WRF may have seriously understated the rain for Vancouver Island yesterday, but it looks like the cloud cover forecast might not be too far off. Currently sunny here, but cloud cover streaming down the Juan de Fuca only a short distance away.

[snow_wizard]

The 12z drop 850s to 0C again during week two.  I'm loving the repeating cold troughs dropping down from the north this season.  Such behavior in cold ENSO autumns is normally a very good sign.

[Jesse]

Even if we do get another brief ridge toward month's end, it will be pretty hard to avoid a below average month for most places.

 

PDX is running -1.8 as of today, and that will only be going down over the next 4-6 days.

[snow_wizard]

Kind of interesting how the off runs of the GFS are the ones getting us really cold at months end.  The 6z and yesterday's 18z showed major blocking and high amp northerly flow while the 0z and 12z are still chilly, but not as majestic in the 10 to 15 day range.  It will be interesting to see how it unfolds.  I'll also be interested to see how this weeks trough plays out temperature wise.

[Jesse]

Kind of interesting how the off runs of the GFS are the ones getting us really cold at months end.  The 6z and yesterday's 18z showed major blocking and high amp northerly flow while the 0z and 12z are still chilly, but not as majestic in the 10 to 15 day range.  It will be interesting to see how it unfolds.  I'll also be interested to see how this weeks trough plays out temperature wise.

 

Interestingly, there are a handful of 12Z ensembles that show a ridge not building in at all next weekend. We just stay cool right through the end of the month.

[Jesse]

Pretty sharp line of clearing moving in from the NW. I smell some midnight lows tonight!

[Phil]

At this point it appears October has a good shot at starting out cold, but I'm still hesitant to say the month itself will be cold. I would certainly like it to be, but years such as 1942 and 1988 show it doesn't have to be. At any rate that 6z run was pretty majestic!

Yeah, agreed. I think what matters (both statistically and physically speaking) is maintaining poleward anticyclonic breaking (high latitude blocking) over the pole and/or NPAC/EPO domain during much of October/November.

 

This destructively interferes with the development and strengthening of the upper level PV/zonal winds, which makes it easier for additional wave breaking/blocking to occur farther down the road, during the heart of winter.

[Jesse]

Yeah, agreed. I think what matters (both statistically and physically speaking) is maintaining poleward anticyclonic breaking (high latitude blocking) over the pole and/or NPAC/EPO domain during much of October/November.

 

This destructively interferes with the development and strengthening of the upper level PV/zonal winds, which makes it easier for additional wave breaking/blocking to occur farther down the road, during the heart of winter.

 

If you are seeing 2013 as a recent analog, that was a pretty chilly October that also featured a lot of sunny weather. Probably would make just about everyone here happy.

[wx_statman]

You're not making any sense.

 

You didn't "question" or disagree with me, at all. You just dismissed the 500mb reanalyses I posted as "colorful maps" that were useless/not needed, because (in your words) "everyone knows what January 1943 did". This was, in fact, completely irrelevant to what I was discussing (large scale similarities in circulation/pattern progression), and I'd never claimed to know anything about PNW history. You were rightfully called out by numerous individuals as a result.

 

So, can you really blame me for thinking you might have a mental disability? After the forum (that you claimed to speak for) rebuked your assertion, you continued the charade as if you were unaware of the feedback you'd received. Reading social cues definitely isn't your strong suit, and it shows.

 

So, either you're autistic and cannot help yourself, or you're an individual with very low self esteem, and looking to compensate for that. Regardless, I feel sorry for you.

 

You're so full of it. 

 

I don't like you. There, I said it. Is that so hard to understand? That's the reason our conversation yesterday happened. You're right that my initial post about your maps wasn't necessary. I agree. But I just don't like you. You spent years on here lying to me and other people. And now that you're supposedly reformed you're still a douchebag. You act like you know what you're talking about when you don't. You attack people left and right when they disagree with you. You literally spent an entire day arguing that Mt. Washington is colder than Mt. Rainier - personally insulting about 6 people along the way - before admitting that you're wrong. You're just arrogant and full of sh*t.

 

Instead of compulsively trying to psychoanalyze me, maybe take a look in the mirror?

 

PS: You're cracking me up with all your BS about me not reading social cues or argumentative cues. I'm staying on topic and minimizing clutter. I'm sure some people reading this forum appreciate that.

[Phil]

If you are seeing 2013 as a recent analog, that was a pretty chilly October that also featured a lot of sunny weather. Probably would make just about everyone here happy.

That's one of my analogs, yeah. Though if anything, I'd argue that block was somewhat equatorward relative to your ideal orientation..was still a bit of a zonal component there.

 

In the -ENSO years I've looked at, the years with flatter/equatorward NPAC anticyclones were generally followed by stronger PVs/hemispheric zonal winds, which makes sense considering that a flat/stable Aleutian ridge is the ideal loading pattern to strengthen the vortex. Meanwhile, years with poleward NPAC anticyclones often featured a perturbed PV with enhanced anticyclonic breaking/planetary wave activity.

 

Also, the years with unchecked PVs tend to go very zonal, very quickly in November, which often results in the coldest air being displaced well to the east of the Rockies during midwinter (usually over the Hudson Bay), when it's not bottled up at the pole. The last several winters are a good example of this, IMO.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

While TT-SEA basks in beautiful sunshine, it continues to rain here. Up to 1.65" of rain since yesterday. 

[ShawniganLake]

Ouch, Where's December when we need it?

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2016091812/ecmwf_z500a_namer_10.png

[MossMan]

Lovely sunny day up here after a lot of precip last night via the PSCZ!

[Jesse]

Ouch, Where's December when we need it?

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2016091812/ecmwf_z500a_namer_10.png

There's nothing "ouch" about getting what would be a decent wintertime pattern this time of year. Nice to see the atmosphere is capable of a good configuration for us.

 

Look how the last two Octobers were, and look at the show both winters went on to be. I'll take my chances with generally cool patterns leading up to winter any year.

[Phil]

I don't like you. There, I said it. Is that so hard to understand? That's the reason our conversation yesterday happened. You're right that my initial post about your maps wasn't necessary. I agree. But I just don't like you. You spent years on here lying to me and other people. And now that you're supposedly reformed you're still a douchebag. You act like you know what you're talking about when you don't. You attack people left and right when they disagree with you.

Get a grip. You were a d**che last night, for no reason, and I returned the favor.

 

Guess what? I don't like you, either. Never have. The difference is, I don't go looking to start fights with you, and I certainly don't cling to weather forum drama from years ago, merely to attack one's character for personal gratification. What a sad, pathetic life that would be.

 

You've been barking these same character attacks at me since you returned here. It's getting old now. If you have a problem with me, you can always PM me. You've already made your feelings towards me obvious. Now that everyone knows, time to let it go. Sound good?

 

Instead of compulsively trying to psychoanalyze me, maybe take a look in the mirror?

 

PS: You're cracking me up with all your BS about me not reading social cues or argumentative cues. I'm staying on topic and minimizing clutter. I'm sure some people reading this forum appreciate that.

Wow, talk about irony.

[Jesse]

Might be time to brush of the argument thread...

[BLI snowman]

Ouch, Where's December when we need it?

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2016091812/ecmwf_z500a_namer_10.png

 

Pass level snow!

[ShawniganLake]

There's nothing "ouch" about getting what would be a decent wintertime pattern this time of year. Nice to see the atmosphere is capable of a good configuration for us.

 

Look how the last two Octobers were, and look at the s**t show both winters went on to be. I'll take my chances with generally cool patterns leading up to winter any year.

Last September was cool a lot of places.  Coldest in 20 years here and it ended in a show winter.  I think it would be pretty easy to punch holes in the cool fall = cold winter theory.  The "ouch" comment was obviously pretty light hearted.  If we somehow manage to finish September cooler than last year in Shawnigan Lake, then we could be looking at the coolest since 1985, there's a fun analogue. 

[BLI snowman]

Might be time to brush of the argument thread...

 

Or utilize the private message.

[Jesse]

Last September was cool a lot of places. Coldest in 20 years here and it ended in a s**t show winter. I think it would be pretty easy to punch holes in the cool fall = cold winter theory. The "ouch" comment was obviously pretty light hearted. If we somehow manage to finish September cooler than last year in Shawnigan Lake, then we could be looking at the coolest since 1985, there's a fun analogue.

I think you just like playing the role of contrarian.

[Trainwreck]

Last September was cool a lot of places. Coldest in 20 years here and it ended in a s**t show winter. I think it would be pretty easy to punch holes in the cool fall = cold winter theory. The "ouch" comment was obviously pretty light hearted. If we somehow manage to finish September cooler than last year in Shawnigan Lake, then we could be looking at the coolest since 1985, there's a fun analogue.

1985 would be a great analog year. Cool Falls don't necessarily mean cool winters. Look at '08. Dry dry dry fall with no snow up at the resorts through early December. Warm as well. Then we all know what happened.

[Jesse]

1985 would be a great analog year. Cool Falls don't necessarily mean cool winters. Look at '08. Dry dry dry fall with no snow up at the resorts through early December. Warm as well. Then we all know what happened.

You realize that 1985 was one of the coldest falls of the airport era, right?

 

Also, October 2008 was notably chilly, with an early frost for many locations. Some early snow to pass level as well.

 

October seems to have a better track record at predicting the winter regime than the other autumn months, from what I can tell.

More of a crapshoot with September/November.

[snow_wizard]

Last September was cool a lot of places.  Coldest in 20 years here and it ended in a s**t show winter.  I think it would be pretty easy to punch holes in the cool fall = cold winter theory.  The "ouch" comment was obviously pretty light hearted.  If we somehow manage to finish September cooler than last year in Shawnigan Lake, then we could be looking at the coolest since 1985, there's a fun analogue. 

 

Cool patterns in the autumn are generally poisonous with warm ENSO.  We have cold or at least chilly ENSO this year.

[ShawniganLake]

You realize that 1985 was one of the coldest falls of the airport era, right?

 

Also, October 2008 was notably chilly, with an early frost for many locations. Some early snow to pass level as well.

 

October seems to have a better track record at predicting the winter regime than the other autumn months, from what I can tell.

More of a crapshoot with September/November.

I wonder if this might be true, feels like it might be, at least when looking at non El Nino years.  Maybe Phil or someone has some colorful  maps looking at the relationship.

 

It would be nice to get some early freezes to help clear the leaves off the trees.  It gets annoying how the leaf drop in the PNW can take 3+ months some years. 

[snow_wizard]

You realize that 1985 was one of the coldest falls of the airport era, right?

 

Also, October 2008 was notably chilly, with an early frost for many locations. Some early snow to pass level as well.

 

October seems to have a better track record at predicting the winter regime than the other autumn months, from what I can tell.

More of a crapshoot with September/November.

 

No doubt.  1949, 1956, 1971, 1984, 2008 all had significant October cold snaps with cold ENSO.  I'm am drooling over the 12z ECMWF.  Gorgeous!

[ShawniganLake]

Just for shits and giggles, I looked at the Fall of 1949.  October was very cool and actually ended up notably cooler than November that year.  I cant imagine that happens very often. 

[Jesse]

Just for shits and giggles, I looked at the Fall of 1949. October was very cool and actually ended up notably cooler than November that year. I cant imagine that happens very often.

October 1949 was ridiculous. Coldest on record for PDX. It had an average temp below 50 which is basically unheard of for October these days.