September 2016 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[snow_wizard]

I wonder if this might be true, feels like it might be, at least when looking at non El Nino years.  Maybe Phil or someone has some colorful  maps looking at the relationship.

 

It would be nice to get some early freezes to help clear the leaves off the trees.  It gets annoying how the leaf drop in the PNW can take 3+ months some years. 

 

ENSO is certainly the key.  1905, 1991, and 2002 are a few fabulous examples of October cold snaps with warm ENSO.  Major October cold snaps followed by awful winters.

[Phil]

I wonder if this might be true, feels like it might be, at least when looking at non El Nino years. Maybe Phil or someone has some colorful maps looking at the relationship.

 

It would be nice to get some early freezes to help clear the leaves off the trees. It gets annoying how the leaf drop in the PNW can take 3+ months some years.

I haven't really looked into this too deeply. I don't believe there's much of an October-->Winter 500mb relationship in -ENSO years,nat least relative to the -ENSO climatology through said timeframe.

[snow_wizard]

Just for shits and giggles, I looked at the Fall of 1949.  October was very cool and actually ended up notably cooler than November that year.  I cant imagine that happens very often. 

 

FWIW the 500mb configuration this summer has been a close match to 1949 over the NE Pacific.

[snow_wizard]

October 1949 was ridiculous. Coldest on record for PDX. It had an average temp below 50 which is basically unheard of for October these days.

 

I can't imagine how anyone could be upset about the pattern being shown on the ECMWF.  I can't think of a cold ENSO autumn with a pattern like that that went on to be a winter.

[snow_wizard]

I haven't really looked into this too deeply. I don't believe there's much of an October-->Winter 500mb relationship in -ENSO years,nat least relative to the -ENSO climatology through said timeframe.

 

There is unquestionably a good correlation of cold Octobers with -ENSO leading to good winters here.  VERY strong correlation.

[snow_wizard]

Pass level snow!

 

Probably a shot at record lows.

[ShawniganLake]

I can't imagine how anyone could be upset about the pattern being shown on the ECMWF.  I can't think of a cold ENSO autumn with a pattern like that that went on to be a s**t winter.

Good.  For the record, I am actually feeling a chilly winter may indeed be in store for us.  There is a reason why I stacked an extra cord of fire wood under my back deck on Friday morning. 

[stuffradio]

Careful about posting colorful maps, we don't like those!

[Trainwreck]

FWIW the 500mb configuration this summer has been a close match to 1949 over the NE Pacific.

I wonder what the summer of '49 produced then.

[Jesse]

I haven't really looked into this too deeply. I don't believe there's much of an October-->Winter 500mb relationship in -ENSO years,nat least relative to the -ENSO climatology through said timeframe.

Yeah, I should have thrown the caveat "during -ENSO events" into my October statement.

[ShawniganLake]

I wonder what the summer of '49 produced then.

It was a cold one. 

[Jesse]

I wonder what the summer of '49 produced then.

Agonizingly coolish overall with notable heatwaves in early June and early September.

[wx_statman]

Wow, talk about irony.

 

I was talking as much about previous conversations as I was about last night. Yesterday wasn't the first time you went off about me having mental issues, all because I was staying on topic and trying to minimize clutter. Imagine what this forum would have looked like if I engaged you on every irrelevant tangent you've thrown around over the past month. 

 

BTW I still don't see any reason for you to post here. You have no perspective on the past or present weather in the PNW (or anywhere in the Western US), no understanding of how our microclimates work, and no personal experience actually living in the Western US. All you offer is conjecture based on models and indices from a computer 3,000 miles away. We already have the government doing that for us. 

[Phil]

There is unquestionably a good correlation of cold Octobers with -ENSO leading to good winters here. VERY strong correlation.

Relative to ENSO climatology, though? Or just in general?

[Phil]

I was talking as much about previous conversations as I was about last night. Yesterday wasn't the first time you went off about me having mental issues, all because I was staying on topic and trying to minimize clutter. Imagine what this forum would have looked like if I engaged you on every irrelevant tangent you've thrown around over the past month.

 

BTW I still don't see any reason for you to post here. You have no perspective on the past or present weather in the PNW (or anywhere in the Western US), no understanding of how our microclimates work, and no personal experience actually living in the Western US. All you offer is conjecture based on models and indices from a computer 3,000 miles away. We already have the government doing that for us.

Are you done yet? Anything else you'd like to get off your chest, while you're at it?

 

Otherwise, please either take this tantrum to PM, or place me on ignore. Nobody here wants to read through this crap.

[stuffradio]

I was talking as much about previous conversations as I was about last night. Yesterday wasn't the first time you went off about me having mental issues, all because I was staying on topic and trying to minimize clutter. Imagine what this forum would have looked like if I engaged you on every irrelevant tangent you've thrown around over the past month. 

 

BTW I still don't see any reason for you to post here. You have no perspective on the past or present weather in the PNW (or anywhere in the Western US), no understanding of how our microclimates work, and no personal experience actually living in the Western US. All you offer is conjecture based on models and indices from a computer 3,000 miles away. We already have the government doing that for us. 

I wish I was a mod so I could delete the posts between you two when you are personally attacking each other instead of using the thread for discussing the weather, and not personal hatred between each other.

[Deweydog]

Nice day!

[Phil]

I wish I was a mod so I could delete the posts between you two when you are personally attacking each other instead of using the thread for discussing the weather, and not personal hatred between each other.

I concur.

 

I still don't understand what sparked this. I thought the discussion last night was of a fairly high quality, until someone started randomly throwing insults.

[TT-SEA]

Nice day!

 

 

Spectacular.

 

Just finished mowing the lawn.

 

Its been sunny here all day.

[Jesse]

Euro ensembles aren't quite as aggressive as the op days 8-10, but still trending in the right direction.

[TT-SEA]

WRF was right about the sunshine today...

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Spectacular.

 

Just finished mowing the lawn.

 

Its been sunny here all day.

 

Still raining. 

[ShawniganLake]

Spectacular.

 

Just finished mowing the lawn.

 

Its been sunny here all day.

Indeed.  Mostly sunny and 68F here with a bit of breeze.  The 68F is bang on average for September 18th.  This morning low of 46F was a -2. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

[Timmy Supercell]

Still raining. 

 

Still UV raying. 

[TT-SEA]

 

 

[BLI snowman]

 

Getting slightly greener!

[MossMan]

Spectacular.

 

Just finished mowing the lawn.

 

Its been sunny here all day.

Washed both vehicles, exersized the dogs, now clouding up a little as soon as the Seahawks game started...perfect timing! However it is a cool 61 degrees.

[ShawniganLake]

Washed both vehicles, exersized the dogs, now clouding up a little as soon as the Seahawks game started...perfect timing! However it is a cool 61 degrees.

Probably going to be another CZ near you a little later.

[TT-SEA]

68 and sunny here.

[MossMan]

Probably going to be another CZ near you a little later.

That would explain the increasing clouds.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Light rain 61. 

[Weather101]

I wish I was a mod so I could delete the posts between you two when you are personally attacking each other instead of using the thread for discussing the weather, and not personal hatred between each other.

It's more entertaining then a Canucks game tho!

[VancouverIslandSouth]

Probably going to be another CZ near you a little later.

 

Still sunny here, but there's been convection firing up just to the north over the past few hours. Looks like it might cloud up later this afternoon based on what the satellite is showing.

[ShawniganLake]

Still sunny here, but there's been convection firing up just to the north over the past few hours. Looks like it might cloud up later this afternoon based on what the satellite is showing.

Probably some rain early tomorrow too.

[Bryant]

You're so full of it.

 

I don't like you. There, I said it. Is that so hard to understand? That's the reason our conversation yesterday happened. You're right that my initial post about your maps wasn't necessary. I agree. But I just don't like you. You spent years on here lying to me and other people. And now that you're supposedly reformed you're still a douchebag. You act like you know what you're talking about when you don't. You attack people left and right when they disagree with you. You literally spent an entire day arguing that Mt. Washington is colder than Mt. Rainier - personally insulting about 6 people along the way - before admitting that you're wrong. You're just arrogant and full of sh*t.

 

Instead of compulsively trying to psychoanalyze me, maybe take a look in the mirror?

 

PS: You're cracking me up with all your BS about me not reading social cues or argumentative cues. I'm staying on topic and minimizing clutter. I'm sure some people reading this forum appreciate that.

Bit ironic given this ***** fest began with a total unprovoked insult due to a grudge which originated years ago.

[VancouverIslandSouth]

Looks like some t-showers over the Strait of Georgia this afternoon.

 

http://i131.photobucket.com/albums/p286/jemeric/current_zpspxjzn4lf.jpg

[wx_statman]

Bit ironic given this ***** fest began with a total unprovoked insult due to a grudge which originated years ago.

 

I already clarified that I was talking about previous exchanges as well, if you read the rest of the thread. 

 

And this discussion was over before you jumped in with this post. Lets keep it that way. 

[wx_statman]

Bit ironic given this ***** fest began with a total unprovoked insult due to a grudge which originated years ago.

 

BTW you're completely missing the point with this post. He's been out of line with everyone who disagrees with him, and that's an ongoing problem. 

 

You're coming off like a real lapdog. You're just blindly defending the guy every chance you get. Did you see the thread last week about Mt. Rainier? He literally spent the entire day insulting everyone because they disagreed with him. And then he admitted that he was wrong the whole time. 

 

I have more of a problem with sh*t like that even more than the problem I had with his lying years ago. This is what you're not understanding or choosing to ignore. I don't know which one it is.

[Phil]

Bit ironic given this ***** fest began with a total unprovoked insult due to a grudge which originated years ago.

Yeah, pretty much this. He's on a roll today.