September 2016 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[VancouverIslandSouth]

Awesome, I'll help in any way I can. The installation and setup are a bit of a process, but in the end, it's well worth it. I had to save up for several months before I could make the necessary purchases, but honesty, this was/is easily the best wx-related expense I've ever made, minus my tuition of course.

 

1) I'd recommend the Davis VantagePro2 plus (fan-aspirated radiation shield), though if intense sunlight isn't an issue at your location/latitude, then you might be able to get away with something less precautionary. This is especially if you're able to mount the unit somewhere with natural wind/ventilation. However, keep in mind that the wireless version relies on solar and battery power, so if you don't typically get sufficient sunlight, I'd recommend the cabled version assuming you have an outdoor outlet/power source.

 

2) I'd recommend purchasing the tripod mount as opposed to a pole mount. Just more stability overall, regardless of the site you choose for the ISS/sensor suite.

 

3) You don't have to do this, but I'd order the Davis SHT15 temp/humidity sensor, and swap out the SHT13 sensor that's (usually) provided with the ISS/sensor unit. Or, if ordering over the phone, ask for the SHT15 sensor right then and there. It's much more accurate than the SHT13, especially in warm/sunny weather.

 

4) I'd recommend the WeatherLinkIP software, if you're interested in utilizing Wunderground. The WeatherLinkIP datalogger fits into the back of your display console, and plugs right into the ethernet port on the back of your router. Your router then transmits the data right to WeatherLink.com (WeatherLink sends your data to Wunderground, CWOP, WeatherBug, etc). It doesn't require a computer, so unlike the USB/Serial versions of WeatherLink which require your computer to be running 24/7 with the software to transmit the data, the IP version just plugs it into the router which transmits it automatically. You can always install the software on your computer anyway, even with the WeatherLinkIP setup, and view your personal data/charts/almanac/etc that way. I personally would install the software anyway, just for record keeping purposes. It literally can track all of your observed conditions on one-minute intervals, which are downloaded/backed up to your computer for safe keeping. Imagine having decades of one-minute observations to reference, right at your fingertips.

 

5) If wind measurements are important to you, the DavisVP2+ comes with 50ft of cable for height, if you cannot mount the sensor suite/ISS on your roof. I'd highly recommend purchasing either a "Spiderbeam" telescoping antennae/tripod, or telescoping flagpole of some sort, to mount the anemometer on. I personally purchased the Spiderbeam antenna, bracket mounted it to the Chimney, then guy-wired it to the roof. You can just purchase the tripod instead of bracket mounts, and secure it on the top of your roof, or even your deck. The spiderbeam antenna comes with excellent guying brackets/cables, too, so all you'll need are a few boxes of wire clamps to maintain tightness of the guy wires.

 

Hope this was at least somewhat helpful. I'll post a picture of my station to give you an idea of what I did here.

 

Thanks, this is super helpful information for getting started. I was actually looking at a similar setup but having trouble deciding whether I should go for the vantage vue or pro; the pro is a bit more expensive and where the CAD$ is sitting right now and the ridiculous cost of shipping to Canada I decided to wait it out until I have more savings. Hopefully by this December,because I'd at to miss out on a good winter of data.

 

The location I'm looking at putting it should be pretty good for sun/wind. I'm at the top of a ridge with the house facing south and about 100~130ft of rise in most directions; even a 10~20ft extension would probably do wonders for catching wind. You've got quite the impressive setup, going to be interesting to see what kind of winds recordings you get with the gauge at the height

[TT-SEA]

I don't think anyone was remotely surprised. He stated a change in the weather and that's what's happening.

 

 

Its been cooler and wetter than normal this September.   What is changing?   

[Bryant]

They seem to surprise you. Did you recently move here??

You're making zero sense. Must be all the troughing getting to your head

[TT-SEA]

You're making zero sense. Must be all the troughing getting to your head

 

 

Sure.   

 

It was a dire situation of heat and drought here so far in September.    

[VancouverIslandSouth]

We might not have any fall storms this year.   Serious situation!  

 

Its been cooler and wetter than normal this September.   What is changing?   

 

Depending on where you are, this was really needed. Early season rains give the grass/ferns/etc a better chance at bouncing back before temperatures cool down. If it were to stay dry until late October or November many lawn areas around here would become mud pits.

[TT-SEA]

Depending on where you are, this was really needed. Early season rains give the grass/ferns/etc a better chance at bouncing back before temperatures cool down. If it were to stay dry until late October or November many lawn areas around here would become mud pits.

 

 

Its been fairly wet in many places this month overall.     The grass always bounces back in the fall... and will be lush green next spring either way.  

[TT-SEA]

WRF and ECMWF continue to show a generally pleasant week... cool, partly cloudy days with some showers around.

 

This coming off a basically perfect 9-day period through yesterday.

[VancouverIslandSouth]

Up to 0.5" here on the day, the clouds have now started breaking up and there are patches of blue sky around. Aside from the odd shower that may pass through over the next 6 hours it looks like this event is largely over; things are clearing out pretty quickly behind the front. Could turn out to be our highest rainfall day since March 10th. The water vapor trail was pretty impressive looking today, it's currently dipping south:

 

http://i131.photobucket.com/albums/p286/jemeric/sept17latest72hrs_zpseyql9dge.gif

[TT-SEA]

Up to 0.5" here on the day, the clouds have now started breaking up and there are patches of blue sky around. Aside from the odd shower that may pass through over the next 6 hours it looks like this event is largely over; things are clearing out pretty quickly behind the front. Could turn out to be our highest rainfall day since March 10th. The water vapor trail was pretty impressive looking today, it's currently dipping south:

 

http://i131.photobucket.com/albums/p286/jemeric/sept17latest72hrs_zpseyql9dge.gif

 

 

Such a cool graphic.

[snow_wizard]

Up to 0.5" here on the day, the clouds have now started breaking up and there are patches of blue sky around. Aside from the odd shower that may pass through over the next 6 hours it looks like this event is largely over; things are clearing out pretty quickly behind the front. Could turn out to be our highest rainfall day since March 10th. The water vapor trail was pretty impressive looking today, it's currently dipping south:

 

 

That is a D**n cool graphic!

 

Interesting to watch that hurricane over the Eastern Pacific die after it loses it's moisture tap.

[Phil]

Thanks, this is super helpful information for getting started. I was actually looking at a similar setup but having trouble deciding whether I should go for the vantage vue or pro; the pro is a bit more expensive and where the CAD$ is sitting right now and the ridiculous cost of shipping to Canada I decided to wait it out until I have more savings. Hopefully by this December,because I'd at to miss out on a good winter of data.

 

The location I'm looking at putting it should be pretty good for sun/wind. I'm at the top of a ridge with the house facing south and about 100~130ft of rise in most directions; even a 10~20ft extension would probably do wonders for catching wind. You've got quite the impressive setup, going to be interesting to see what kind of winds recordings you get with the gauge at the height

Awesome. Sounds like you have a great topographic setup. Properly siting an anemometer is often a magnificent challenge in residential areas, so your location is definitely something to be envious of, haha.

 

I'll probably still need W or NW winds for truly representative numbers, perhaps SW winds could work also. However, I'm obstructed from every other direction, especially the N/NE/E.

[Geos]

Up to 0.5" here on the day, the clouds have now started breaking up and there are patches of blue sky around. Aside from the odd shower that may pass through over the next 6 hours it looks like this event is largely over; things are clearing out pretty quickly behind the front. Could turn out to be our highest rainfall day since March 10th. The water vapor trail was pretty impressive looking today, it's currently dipping south:

 

 

Yes, great loop.

 

0.18" so far here.

 

another wave coming onshore.

 

[ShawniganLake]

Sunny afternoon here now. Strong WSW wind gusts as the front cleared the area. Peak gusts have been in the 30-40mph range across the South Island.

[MossMan]

These two didn't care that is was raining on them this morning...they just wanted me to throw the ball already!

[Phil]

This is a must-read. In reference to implications for the upcoming winter, and climate change(s) in general.

 

http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/store/10.1002/2016GL070921/asset/grl55039.pdf;jsessionid=D8DA0EC91F434119AF0464A32426E142.f03t03?v=1&t=it7r1v795220b3bf

[Front Ranger]

Very possible that PDX sees a midnight high today of 63º. Locked in at 57º as of 12pm with no break in the precip/clouds through this afternoon it would seem.

 

FWIW - ECMWF EPS Mean shows PDX not getting above 72º over the next 15 days. Lots of 60's and lows in the 40's throughout.

 

The half of September that is summer is over. 

[Front Ranger]

Its been fairly wet in many places this month overall.     The grass always bounces back in the fall... and will be lush green next spring either way.  

 

Pretty dry late summer overall, though.

 

 

[snow_wizard]

The half of September that is summer is over. 

 

Still pretty impressive for PDX to not see 72 in a 10 day period.

[snow_wizard]

This is a must-read. In reference to implications for the upcoming winter, and climate change(s) in general.

 

http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/store/10.1002/2016GL070921/asset/grl55039.pdf;jsessionid=D8DA0EC91F434119AF0464A32426E142.f03t03?v=1&t=it7r1v795220b3bf

 

There is something wrong with that web address.

[Phil]

Beautiful wave breaking event still looks on schedule in the long range. A few months from now and we'd all be talking about cross polar flow and cold anomalies coast-to-coast.

 

Still should deliver a solid shot somewhere, but wavelengths aren't quite ready for longwave synchronization just yet..

[James Jones]

It has down here too. The warm days and cool nights have been fall like. Then we had plenty of cool days as well the first week of the month. So I don't really understand his comment.

Days with highs around 80 just don't feel like fall to me, even if the lows get down into the upper 40s. We've had persistent rain all day today and temps haven't gotten above 60, which looks and feels a lot different than what we got early in the month.

[Weather101]

Ha!

 

Can't play that game. I totally expect and enjoy some fall storms in September.

 

They seem to surprise you. Did you recently move here??

Dude what is your problem?... Everytime someone comments anything you don't like you belittle them in your own sarcastic comments, Then you play the innocent card. If this happened once or twice I could understand but YOU been doing this for years and people get sick of it. I truly don't care because it's funny but can you grow up already ? You act like a 17 year old girl who has daddy problems. Just because someone finds the rain a welcome change annoys you how about don't comment?

[snow_wizard]

The 18z GFS shows us beginning October with much below normal temps and northerly flow from above the Arctic Circle.  I am really getting excited now.  Everything says at least one really good month this winter.

[Jesse]

Days with highs around 80 just don't feel like fall to me, even if the lows get down into the upper 40s. We've had persistent rain all day today and temps haven't gotten above 60, which looks and feels a lot different than what we got early in the month.

Agreed. I get what you mean.

 

I would say today is the first day to feel like deep fall for sure. But most of the month has been on the cool side of early fallish.

[snow_wizard]

Dude what is your problem?... Everytime someone comments anything you don't like you belittle them in your own sarcastic comments, Then you play the innocent card. If this happened once or twice I could understand but YOU been doing this for years and people get sick of it. I truly don't care because it's funny but can you grow up already ? You act like a 17 year old girl who has daddy problems. Just because someone finds the rain a welcome change annoys you how about don't comment?

 

Bingo!

[snow_wizard]

Agreed. I get what you mean.

 

I would say today is the first day to feel like deep fall for sure. But most of the month has been on the cool side of early fallish.

 

Yup...the month up until now has been below normal, but now it's really below.  The models are looking decent for a shot of continental cold air late in the month.  Pretty exciting.

[TT-SEA]

Dude what is your problem?... Everytime someone comments anything you don't like you belittle them in your own sarcastic comments, Then you play the innocent card. If this happened once or twice I could understand but YOU been doing this for years and people get sick of it. I truly don't care because it's funny but can you grow up already ? You act like a 17 year old girl who has daddy problems. Just because someone finds the rain a welcome change annoys you how about don't comment?

 

 

I laugh again.   Its because its Bryant.   Nothing to do with the weather.   

[Front Ranger]

Dude what is your problem?... Everytime someone comments anything you don't like you belittle them in your own sarcastic comments, Then you play the innocent card. If this happened once or twice I could understand but YOU been doing this for years and people get sick of it. I truly don't care because it's funny but can you grow up already ? You act like a 17 year old girl who has daddy problems. Just because someone finds the rain a welcome change annoys you how about don't comment?

 

Tim has been called a lot of things, but this may be a first.

[TT-SEA]

Tim has been called a lot of things, but this may be a first.

 

 

I think so!  

[MossMan]

The 18z GFS shows us beginning October with much below normal temps and northerly flow from above the Arctic Circle. I am really getting excited now. Everything says at least one really good month this winter.

Have we ever had winter in recorded history that featured 2" or more of snow each month November thru March around the Puget Sound area?

[James Jones]

Agreed. I get what you mean.

 

I would say today is the first day to feel like deep fall for sure. But most of the month has been on the cool side of early fallish.

Yeah, I could have just said "deep fall" from the beginning to clear that up. 

 

The first half of the month was definitely fall-like from a meteorological perspective, but the average person probably wouldn't really notice a difference between that and, say, the first 2 weeks of July. Today is the first day where the changing of seasons is unmistakable and in your face.

[MossMan]

PSCZ right over my house now...moderate to heavy rain currently. 60 degrees.

[Front Ranger]

Have we ever had winter in recorded history that featured 2" or more of snow each month November thru March around the Puget Sound area?

 

1955-56 managed it in a few areas. I think 1950-51 may have as well.

 

2008-09 had 2"+ every month Dec-Mar at SEA, a first.

[MossMan]

1955-56 managed it in a few areas. I think 1950-51 may have as well.

 

2008-09 had 2"+ every month Dec-Mar at SEA, a first.

I didn't realize 08-09 managed that...I guess Dec stole the thunder of Jan-March since I don't remember the other months.

[James Jones]

1955-56 managed it in a few areas. I think 1950-51 may have as well.

 

2008-09 had 2"+ every month Dec-Mar at SEA, a first.

Yeah, the station of the Gods did it in '55-'56. They fell a tenth of an inch short of having 3"+ in all 5 months.

 

November 1955 is an event that just blows my mind. It would be a major arctic blast at absolutely any point in the calendar (colder than any regionwide event we've had in the 21st century), so the fact that it started on the 11th of November is incredible. Seattle's record lows from that event rival or even exceed many places in the Midwest for November 11-15th time period.

[stuffradio]

I only got 1.13" of rain today.

[Front Ranger]

Yeah, the station of the Gods did it in '55-'56. They fell a tenth of an inch short of having 3"+ in all 5 months.

 

November 1955 is an event that just blows my mind. It would be a major arctic blast at absolutely any point in the calendar (colder than any regionwide event we've had in the 21st century), so the fact that it started on the 11th of November is incredible. Seattle's record lows from that event rival or even exceed many places in the Midwest for November 11-15th time period.

 

Yup, from a climatological perspective, the most extreme Arctic event on record for the PNW.

[BLI snowman]

Have we ever had winter in recorded history that featured 2" or more of snow each month November thru March around the Puget Sound area?

 

1955-56 is probably the best post 1900 example.

 

1970-71 was another more modern year that had a solid winter weather event in each month from November to March.

 

And then 1935-36 and 1971-72 each managed 1"+ snow events in both October and April. 

[wx_statman]

Yeah, the station of the Gods did it in '55-'56. They fell a tenth of an inch short of having 3"+ in all 5 months.

 

November 1955 is an event that just blows my mind. It would be a major arctic blast at absolutely any point in the calendar (colder than any regionwide event we've had in the 21st century), so the fact that it started on the 11th of November is incredible. Seattle's record lows from that event rival or even exceed many places in the Midwest for November 11-15th time period.

 

November 1911 is another good example, especially in Whatcom and Skagit Counties. Blaine hit 5F on 11/11/1911. Sedro Woolley hit 8F and Bellingham hit 9F. Even Chicago has never fallen below 10F that early in the season. The earliest there is November 12th.

[wx_statman]

1955-56 is probably the best post 1900 example.

 

1970-71 was another more modern year that had a solid winter weather event in each month from November to March.

 

And then 1935-36 and 1971-72 each managed 1"+ snow events in both October and April. 

 

I like 1919-20 as well. Measurable snowfall in the I-5 corridor in both October and April, with the December blockbuster thrown in.