September 2016 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[ShawniganLake]

Looks like Vancouver Island is doing quite well in terms of rain this morning per the radar.

~0.25 to 0.5" around the South Island this morning. What was the Euro showing? Seems like the WRF was too aggressive with the rain shadow for here. Last night it was showing barely anything for Shawnigan lake area.

[MossMan]

Rainy/breezy and 55 current degrees.

[TT-SEA]

~0.25 to 0.5" around the South Island this morning. What was the Euro showing? Seems like the WRF was too aggressive with the rain shadow for here. Last night it was showing barely anything for Shawnigan lake area.

 

The 00Z ECMWF showed .20 to .30 for the southern areas of Vancouver Island.

[VancouverIslandSouth]

If anyone is interested, I finally connected my weather station to Wunderground. Have been wanting to do this for awhile, and honestly the whole process was much easier than I thought it would be. Everything is up and running, except for the fact they mislocated it by a few miles. I'll try to figure that out sometime this week.

 

https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMDBETHE56#history

 

Anemometer was/is a challenge with the large tulip poplars around here. Installed a 50ft antenna on the roof for a total of ~80ft of altitude...which ultimately wasn't nearly high enough to clear the treetops but will hopefully compensate for some of the windbreaks.

 

Nice, I'm hoping to do something similar later this year when I can afford to get a new weather station. Any tips?

[Geos]

Steady rain here. 57°

0.16" as of 9:15am.

[VancouverIslandSouth]

The 00Z ECMWF showed .20 to .30 for the southern areas of Vancouver Island.

 

Sounds like the earlier runs calling for mostly dry over the southern island flopped big time on this one. What the models were showing for this area was weird given the high TPW coming in at an angle that doesn't usually produce a large rain shadow in this region. Already up to 0.3" and it's still dumping down, probably at least an hour more of this to go based on the radar. The 12z WRF sure blew this one; it's hard to take this model seriously when it can be this wrong only a couple hours out:

 

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/wrfrt/data/current_gfs/images_d3/wa_pcp24.24.0000.gif

[TT-SEA]

Sounds like the earlier runs calling for mostly dry over the southern island flopped big time on this one. What the models were showing for this area was weird given the high TPW coming in at an angle that doesn't usually produce a large rain shadow in this region. Already up to 0.3" and it's still dumping down, probably at least an hour more of this to go based on the radar. The 12z WRF sure blew this one; it's hard to take this model seriously when it can be this wrong only a couple hours out:

 

 

 

 

That shows some intense rain in the foothills.   Probably overstated.

 

I wonder if the WRF will be right about the widespread sunshine down here tomorrow afternoon...

 

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/wrfrt/data/current_gfs/images_d3/intcld.36.0000.gif

[snow_wizard]

The reapeating pattern we have seen this month (recurring GOA ridge / sharp troughing in the NW) in combination with the persistent positive height and presure anoms over the NE Pacific this summer have me ready to commit to at least one serious cold month / Arctic blast this winter.  Besides the observed pattern you also have the fact the winter following a major El Nino is almost a lock for at least one big blast.  I really like out chances.

 

On another note I was in Liberty yesterday and the fall color is already coming on strong over there.  Quite beautiful.

[snow_wizard]

Steady rain here. 57°

0.16" as of 9:15am.

 

I'm up to 0.30" at 9:45.

 

[snow_wizard]

If anyone is interested, I finally connected my weather station to Wunderground. Have been wanting to do this for awhile, and honestly the whole process was much easier than I thought it would be. Everything is up and running, except for the fact they mislocated it by a few miles. I'll try to figure that out sometime this week.

 

https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMDBETHE56#history

 

Anemometer was/is a challenge with the large tulip poplars around here. Installed a 50ft antenna on the roof for a total of ~80ft of altitude...which ultimately wasn't nearly high enough to clear the treetops but will hopefully compensate for some of the windbreaks.

 

80ft?  Your neighbors must think you're a bit obsessed!

[MossMan]

That shows some intense rain in the foothills. Probably overstated.

 

I wonder if the WRF will be right about the widespread sunshine down here tomorrow afternoon...

 

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/wrfrt/data/current_gfs/images_d3/intcld.36.0000.gif

I sure hope the WRF is correct! Would be nice to salvage one outside day.

[snow_wizard]

I sure hope the WRF is correct! Would be nice to salvage one outside day.

 

I totally agree with you.  One rainy day followed by a bunch of cool / partly cloudy or clear days is my favorite progression.  The WRF has been very consistent on showing a number of cold / clear nights coming up.  First frost is very possible!

[Bryant]

Moderate rain falling in southern Whatcom County

[MossMan]

I totally agree with you. One rainy day followed by a bunch of cool / partly cloudy or clear days is my favorite progression. The WRF has been very consistent on showing a number of cold / clear nights coming up. First frost is very possible!

Indeed! I am ok with today's rain if we can get a dry and cool day tomorrow.

[Timmy Supercell]

Moderate rain falling in southern Whatcom County

 

I had totally forgotten what rain was.

[snow_wizard]

Indeed! I am ok with today's rain if we can get a dry and cool day tomorrow.

 

I have no problem with sunshine at all.  It's sunshine with endless above normal temps that was getting to me.

[Bryant]

I have no problem with sunshine at all. It's sunshine with endless above normal temps that was getting to me.

Today is a welcomed and much needed change.

[James Jones]

This is the first day of the season that truly feels like Fall to me. Lots of stressed looking trees and vegetation so this is a much needed watering, though since they're going dormant soon anyway I'm not sure how much difference it will actually make.

[Phil]

Nice, I'm hoping to do something similar later this year when I can afford to get a new weather station. Any tips?

Awesome, I'll help in any way I can. The installation and setup are a bit of a process, but in the end, it's well worth it. I had to save up for several months before I could make the necessary purchases, but honesty, this was/is easily the best wx-related expense I've ever made, minus my tuition of course.

 

1) I'd recommend the Davis VantagePro2 plus (fan-aspirated radiation shield), though if intense sunlight isn't an issue at your location/latitude, then you might be able to get away with something less precautionary. This is especially if you're able to mount the unit somewhere with natural wind/ventilation. However, keep in mind that the wireless version relies on solar and battery power, so if you don't typically get sufficient sunlight, I'd recommend the cabled version assuming you have an outdoor outlet/power source.

 

2) I'd recommend purchasing the tripod mount as opposed to a pole mount. Just more stability overall, regardless of the site you choose for the ISS/sensor suite.

 

3) You don't have to do this, but I'd order the Davis SHT15 temp/humidity sensor, and swap out the SHT13 sensor that's (usually) provided with the ISS/sensor unit. Or, if ordering over the phone, ask for the SHT15 sensor right then and there. It's much more accurate than the SHT13, especially in warm/sunny weather.

 

4) I'd recommend the WeatherLinkIP software, if you're interested in utilizing Wunderground. The WeatherLinkIP datalogger fits into the back of your display console, and plugs right into the ethernet port on the back of your router. Your router then transmits the data right to WeatherLink.com (WeatherLink sends your data to Wunderground, CWOP, WeatherBug, etc). It doesn't require a computer, so unlike the USB/Serial versions of WeatherLink which require your computer to be running 24/7 with the software to transmit the data, the IP version just plugs it into the router which transmits it automatically. You can always install the software on your computer anyway, even with the WeatherLinkIP setup, and view your personal data/charts/almanac/etc that way. I personally would install the software anyway, just for record keeping purposes. It literally can track all of your observed conditions on one-minute intervals, which are downloaded/backed up to your computer for safe keeping. Imagine having decades of one-minute observations to reference, right at your fingertips.

 

5) If wind measurements are important to you, the DavisVP2+ comes with 50ft of cable for height, if you cannot mount the sensor suite/ISS on your roof. I'd highly recommend purchasing either a "Spiderbeam" telescoping antennae/tripod, or telescoping flagpole of some sort, to mount the anemometer on. I personally purchased the Spiderbeam antenna, bracket mounted it to the Chimney, then guy-wired it to the roof. You can just purchase the tripod instead of bracket mounts, and secure it on the top of your roof, or even your deck. The spiderbeam antenna comes with excellent guying brackets/cables, too, so all you'll need are a few boxes of wire clamps to maintain tightness of the guy wires.

 

Hope this was at least somewhat helpful. I'll post a picture of my station to give you an idea of what I did here.

[Timmy Supercell]

3 years ago today, nature's alarm clock woke me up around 4:30am (nocturnal warm-core thunderstorm). This was also when I had much lower standards for t'storms here, when I thought lightning every 20 seconds was huge stuff. Comparing to PDX storms it still is huge but after the one I had in May (3-5 second frequencies), most storms here will not impress me anymore.

[snow_wizard]

This is the first day of the season that truly feels like Fall to me. Lots of stressed looking trees and vegetation so this is a much needed watering, though since they're going dormant soon anyway I'm not sure how much difference it will actually make.

 

We've had lows in the 40s for the last week, so it's been pretty fall like for a while up here.

[Timmy Supercell]

This is the first day of the season that truly feels like Fall to me. Lots of stressed looking trees and vegetation so this is a much needed watering, though since they're going dormant soon anyway I'm not sure how much difference it will actually make.

 

This was actually about the time September began turning in 2013 down here. It was by the 18th I started having much cooler highs and frontal systems coming through. A few days brought pretty good rains to the east sides.

[snow_wizard]

The WRF shows temps in the 50s at 2pm Wednesday.  If true that is getting seriously below normal.

[stuffradio]

I'm at .80 inches so far. I just need 3.2 inches more to reach what that website said haha. Think I should build that ark now Jesse?

[Phil]

Awesome, I'll help in any way I can. The installation and setup are a bit of a process, but in the end, it's well worth it. I had to save up for several months before I could make the necessary purchases, but honesty, this was/is easily the best wx-related expense I've ever made, minus my tuition of course.

 

1) I'd recommend the Davis VantagePro2 plus (fan-aspirated radiation shield), though if intense sunlight isn't an issue at your location/latitude, then you might be able to get away with something less precautionary. This is especially if you're able to mount the unit somewhere with natural wind/ventilation. However, keep in mind that the wireless version relies on solar and battery power, so if you don't typically get sufficient sunlight, I'd recommend the cabled version assuming you have an outdoor outlet/power source.

 

2) I'd recommend purchasing the tripod mount as opposed to a pole mount. Just more stability overall, regardless of the site you choose for the ISS/sensor suite.

 

3) You don't have to do this, but I'd order the Davis SHT15 temp/humidity sensor, and swap out the SHT13 sensor that's (usually) provided with the ISS/sensor unit. Or, if ordering over the phone, ask for the SHT15 sensor right then and there. It's much more accurate than the SHT13, especially in warm/sunny weather.

 

4) I'd recommend the WeatherLinkIP software, if you're interested in utilizing Wunderground. The WeatherLinkIP datalogger fits into the back of your display console, and plugs right into the ethernet port on the back of your router. Your router then transmits the data right to WeatherLink.com (WeatherLink sends your data to Wunderground, CWOP, WeatherBug, etc). It doesn't require a computer, so unlike the USB/Serial versions of WeatherLink which require your computer to be running 24/7 with the software to transmit the data, the IP version just plugs it into the router which transmits it automatically. You can always install the software on your computer anyway, even with the WeatherLinkIP setup, and view your personal data/charts/almanac/etc that way. I personally would install the software anyway, just for record keeping purposes. It literally can track all of your observed conditions on one-minute intervals, which are downloaded/backed up to your computer for safe keeping. Imagine having decades of one-minute observations to reference, right at your fingertips.

 

5) If wind measurements are important to you, the DavisVP2+ comes with 50ft of cable for height, if you cannot mount the sensor suite/ISS on your roof. I'd highly recommend purchasing either a "Spiderbeam" telescoping antennae/tripod, or telescoping flagpole of some sort, to mount the anemometer on. I personally purchased the Spiderbeam antenna, bracket mounted it to the Chimney, then guy-wired it to the roof. You can just purchase the tripod instead of bracket mounts, and secure it on the top of your roof, or even your deck. The spiderbeam antenna comes with excellent guying brackets/cables, too, so all you'll need are a few boxes of wire clamps to maintain tightness of the guy wires.

 

Hope this was at least somewhat helpful. I'll post a picture of my station to give you an idea of what I did here.

Here's a picture of the "finished product". A rooftop installation is a two-person job, so I had a friend help me. Would have been very difficult otherwise, so I'd recommend having someone help you, if this is indeed route you choose to go.

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/0F51F456-F1CF-472D-9D68-710F13E7B7F7_zpsabdj4lmj.jpg

[snow_wizard]

Here's a picture of the "finished product". A rooftop installation is a two-person job, so I had a friend help me. Would have been very difficult otherwise, so I'd recommend having someone help you, if this is indeed route you choose to go.

 

 

Really nice you were able to get it that high.  I'm very lucky that my location is wide open to the prevailing direction here in the winter (easterly) or I would be screwed with the trees.

[TT-SEA]

Today is a welcomed and much needed change.

 

 

Its the second half of September now.    Do you really worry about not getting fall storms/rain at our latitude and location?     

 

Also... it was cool and wet for the first week of the month and then fairly cool and sunny for the second week.   Looks partly cloudy and cool for the third week.       What are we changing?   

[ShawniganLake]

Here's a picture of the "finished product". A rooftop installation is a two-person job, so I had a friend help me. Would have been very difficult otherwise, so I'd recommend having someone help you, if this is indeed route you choose to go.

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/0F51F456-F1CF-472D-9D68-710F13E7B7F7_zpsabdj4lmj.jpg

I cant imagine having your temp sensor on the roof is ideal.

[Jesse]

We've had lows in the 40s for the last week, so it's been pretty fall like for a while up here.

It has down here too. The warm days and cool nights have been fall like. Then we had plenty of cool days as well the first week of the month. So I don't really understand his comment.

[TT-SEA]

I like the improvements on the ECMWF later in the run...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2016091712/ecmwf_z500_mslp_namer_10.png

[TT-SEA]

But the 12Z ECMWF quickly brings in NW flow again on the next frame.   This also looks like a pattern that could bring the first snowflakes to the Upper Midwest as well.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2016091712/ecmwf_z500_mslp_namer_11.png

[Phil]

Really nice you were able to get it that high. I'm very lucky that my location is wide open to the prevailing direction here in the winter (easterly) or I would be screwed with the trees.

Yeah, I still have a huge tree problem, especially from the NE/E/SE/S. I'm exposed to the W/NW, however, given the orientation of the creek/river valley, which drops 100-140ft in that direction.

 

Regarding trees, the tulip poplars around here are some of the tallest in the entire county. We have a few that were measured at 150ft-160ft tall, and they're located about 80ft south of my anemometer, making them impossible to circumvent.

 

Here's an early season picture where they're more visible (the ones with the leaves)..pretty much impossible to avoid:

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/65EB200E-BA7E-4849-8472-8FB02395B540_zpspzvmqxed.jpg

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/B7E7B6D9-A103-4091-8129-F0E765743ACB_zpsvns4kden.jpg

 

Here's what they look like currently, along with more tree obstruction from the N/NE/E. Just an absolute disaster.

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/F6D7ED23-1947-4E3C-9A80-BFE82828D009_zpsf0s65d7o.jpg

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/7D1E5432-6293-4685-A3EB-A24C7677739A_zps5ab9m1ei.jpg

[snow_wizard]

Love the ECMWF at day 10.  Nice shot of chilly contiental air sliding down the coast of BC.

[snow_wizard]

Yeah, I still have a huge tree problem, especially from the NE/E/SE/S. I'm exposed to the W/NW, however, given the orientation of the creek/river valley, which drops 100-140ft in that direction.

 

Regarding trees, the tulip poplars around here are some of the tallest in the entire county. We have a few that were measured at 150ft-160ft tall, and they're located about 80ft south of my anemometer, making them impossible to circumvent.

 

Here's an early season picture where they're more visible (the ones with the leaves)..pretty much impossible to avoid:

 

 

 

 

 

Here's what they look like currently, along with more tree obstruction from the N/NE/E. Just an absolute disaster.

 

 

 

 

Ouch!

[Phil]

I cant imagine having your temp sensor on the roof is ideal.

That's outdoor porch roof. It's not heated or airconditioned, just screened in for appearance.

 

Also, that roof is mostly shaded from the south by trees and chimney/loft, so I elevated the sensors just enough to catch broken sunlight while largely avoiding the issue of direct sunlight warming the roof and inflating temperatures.

[Bryant]

Its the second half of September now. Do you really worry about not getting fall storms/rain at our latitude and location?

 

Also... it was cool and wet for the first week of the month and then fairly cool and sunny for the second week. Looks partly cloudy and cool for the third week. What are we changing?

Calm down Tim, everything will be alright

[TT-SEA]

Calm down Tim, everything will be alright

 

Ha! 

 

Can't play that game.   I totally expect and enjoy some fall storms in September.

 

They seem to surprise you.   Did you recently move here??  

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Need snow soon.

[Kayla]

Very possible that PDX sees a midnight high today of 63º. Locked in at 57º as of 12pm with no break in the precip/clouds through this afternoon it would seem.

 

FWIW - ECMWF EPS Mean shows PDX not getting above 72º over the next 15 days. Lots of 60's and lows in the 40's throughout.

[Timmy Supercell]

Ha! 

 

Can't play that game.   I totally expect and enjoy some fall storms in September.

 

They seem to surprise you.   Did you recently move here??  

 

I don't think anyone was remotely surprised. He stated a change in the weather and that's what's happening.