September 2016 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[Jesse]

Euro ensemble and operational are in great agreement through days 7-8. After that, there is clearly a lot of disagreement among individual members in the long range. Might just have to sweat this one out.

[TT-SEA]

Latest CFS monthly run now shows pretty much warm in the West all winter.    

 

The run before that showed the complete opposite.

 

So what value does the CFS provide??  

[FroYoBro]

Latest CFS monthly run now shows pretty much warm in the West all winter.    

 

The run before that showed the complete opposite.

 

So what value does the CFS provide??  

EXCITEMENT!

[Front Ranger]

Latest CFS monthly run now shows pretty much warm in the West all winter.

 

The run before that showed the complete opposite.

 

So what value does the CFS provide??

Diversity!

[Jesse]

Diversity!

It can also be a valuable trolling tool, in a pinch.

[Deweydog]

Latest CFS monthly run now shows pretty much warm in the West all winter.

 

The run before that showed the complete opposite.

 

So what value does the CFS provide??

You've really become quite enamoured with it.

[Jesse]

You've really become quite enamoured with it.

See my above post.

[Front Ranger]

It can also be a valuable trolling tool, in a pinch.

 

Yes, whatever opinion/narrative you favor, the CFS can back it up - or will soon.

[IbrChris]

A wintry shot into the northern Rockies next week if the GFS is correct...potentially snow down to the valley floor (~4,000 feet) with 700 mb temps of -7c/-8c. A lot of disagreement but some sort of ridging may develop mid-late next week along the west coast (with focus of warm anomalies in CA where a potential Santa Ana may impact SoCal).

[Deweydog]

See my above post.

I thought Andrew was our designated CFS surrogate. Seems like we didn't need a second.

[Jesse]

I thought Andrew was our designated CFS surrogate. Seems like we didn't need a second.

It was showing an extended period of warmth for a period that Jim was super excited about seeing cold.

 

Irresistible.

[snow_wizard]

Absolutely crazy trade wind burst / high SOI going on right now.  No question ENSO SST's will drop considerably.  I'm mystified why some mets had already given up on the Nina.  The trust some of them have in the models is breeding an atmosphere of lazy meteorology. 

[TT-SEA]

You've really become quite enamoured with it.

 

 

I was pretty excited about the run yesterday showing crazy cold for us for most of the winter.     I did not realize how much it swings.   

[TT-SEA]

Absolutely crazy trade wind burst / high SOI going on right now.  No question ENSO SST's will drop considerably.  I'm mystified why some mets had already given up on the Nina.  The trust some of them have in the models is breeding an atmosphere of lazy meteorology. 

 

 

According to Phil... the trade wind burst is doing nothing to cool the ENSO regions.

[BLI snowman]

I was pretty excited about the run yesterday showing crazy cold for us for most of the winter. I did not realize how much it swings.

It is basically worthless.

 

Although if it shows a late November cold period or a mid January ridge, I would put some stock in it.

[TT-SEA]

I wonder if this will generally verify... a 4-5 day cool period then warming up.   The EPS mean sort of agrees.   The 12Z ECMWF did not at all.

 

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_Seattle_USA_ens.png

[TT-SEA]

Boys got a GoPro... they tested it out tonight on this gorgeous evening.    Water was still quite warm and there was no wind at all so it was just perfect out there.    

 

[Deweydog]

I was pretty excited about the run yesterday showing crazy cold for us for most of the winter. I did not realize how much it swings.

Really???

[TT-SEA]

Really???

 

You mean the cold winter or the swings? 

 

I did not realize it completely flips an entire 6-month period from one run to the next.

 

Stupid.

 

I thought it sort of trended in one direction or another.

[Deweydog]

Really. No foolin'

 

A cold winter excites me... does not rain too much when its cold. And its very scenic when it snows.

I was more referring to the fact you supposedly didn't know the CFS was horse .

[TT-SEA]

I was more referring to the fact you supposedly didn't know the CFS was horse s**t.

 

 

I realized that after I typed that post and completely changed it.

 

I thought you were questioning my love of cold winters.

[Geos]

High of 77° with clear skies all day. A+ day 

 

Not quite as cold as the past few morning, but still down to 45°.

Sunset tonight

 

[Jesse]

Today was gorgeous. Early fall perfection.

[stuffradio]

The myforecast website is still showing the same precip for me of 4" over the weekend. Haha

[Jesse]

The myforecast website is still showing the same precip for me of 4" over the weekend. Haha

Thoughts/prayers. You know the drill.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

For the record I am thinking a weak NINA is now very possible...Some of the more recent CFS runs show ENSO rebounding to neutral in April before beginning to drop again...Maybe we can avoid another Nino

[snow_wizard]

Looking pretty cool overall for the next couple of weeks.

[snow_wizard]

For the record I am thinking a weak NINA is now very possible...Some of the more recent CFS runs show ENSO rebounding to neutral in April before beginning to drop again...Maybe we can avoid another Nino

 

Historically speaking we should be safe from another Nino for at least a few years.  Super Ninos usually have a long stretch without afterwards.  Besides that we will be getting into a super deep solar minimum in a couple of years so we may be safe for a while.

[snow_wizard]

Pretty interesting to note we will be finding ourselves in yet another situation that would be quite cold in the winter early next week.  Certainly a theme lately.

[Phil]

Historically speaking we should be safe from another Nino for at least a few years. Super Ninos usually have a long stretch without afterwards. Besides that we will be getting into a super deep solar minimum in a couple of years so we may be safe for a while.

There's typically a Niño response right at solar minimum. Hasn't failed since the 1950s.

[stuffradio]

Thoughts/prayers. You know the drill.

Should I start assembling the submarine before or during?

[Jesse]

Looking pretty cool overall for the next couple of weeks.

Indeed, and even the current ridgy period has only gotten us close to average. Today was -0.5 at PDX and yesterday was only +1.

 

A below average month may be within reach.

[Jesse]

Should I start assembling the submarine before or during?

Definitely before, unless you work best under pressure.

[Jesse]

00z GFS ensembles trended even cooler, for longer.

[VancouverIslandSouth]

The trend seems to be taking the Saturday frontal system through faster and with less moisture than previously shown. It still looks like widespread rain, but nothing like the drenching shown earlier. Heavy rains have been pretty hard to come by these past 5 months; not something that would be unusual for a 2 or 3 month period, but it's really dragging out this time. This must be how it feels to live in California during the fall/winter months.

[ShawniganLake]

The trend seems to be taking the Saturday frontal system through faster and with less moisture than previously shown. It still looks like widespread rain, but nothing like the drenching shown earlier. Heavy rains have been pretty hard to come by these past 5 months; not something that would be unusual for a 2 or 3 month period, but it's really dragging out this time. This must be how it feels to live in California during the fall/winter months.

Looks like the potential for our typical rainshadowing on the SE part of the island. We always tend to do poorly when a front sags through from the NW.

[snow_wizard]

00z GFS ensembles trended even cooler, for longer.

 

For sure!  The mean drops to 3C and the operational 2C.  The WRF is painting some well below normal temps after Friday.

[Tyler Mode]

Waking up to some fairly dense fog here in Battle Ground.  The low dipped to 46 before, and is now up to 50.  It has been wall to wall sun the last several days, so this is a decent change in the surface conditions.

Not a bad run of low temps the last several mornings:

9th: 43
10th: 45
11th: 48
12th: 41
13th: 41
14th: 41
15th: 46

[Geos]

46° here this morning with clouds and some fog early this morning. Clouds are clearing out east to west this morning. 

 

My lows the last week. 45, 47, 52, 43, 43, 45, 46

[Jesse]

Another gorgeous morning, this time with a little more in the way of low clouds, but still managed to hit the upper 40s here.

 

Colors are getting off to a good start on the trees.