Brennan Posted November 28, 2016 Report Share Posted November 28, 2016 What page in the archives is the original Dec. 2008 thread at? Can't seem to find it! I want to read all the weenie posts from that thread when we were about 8 or so days out!!Crap i can't remember. I wanna say 50 something? It's pretty hilarious. Everyone is exactly the same then and now. At least those of us still posting. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted November 28, 2016 Report Share Posted November 28, 2016 Looking at the Ensembles, the ECMWF which is real promising features a stronger SE Ridge.... GFS has none or its flat.. That's the culpritThe lackluster SE ridge on the GFS is due to upstream differences. I wouldn't say it's the culprit, rather it's more of a consequence of the disorganized upstream block. 2 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 28, 2016 Author Report Share Posted November 28, 2016 Day 5 http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ecmwf/2016112800/120/500h_anom.na.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 28, 2016 Author Report Share Posted November 28, 2016 http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2016112800/ecmwf_z500_mslp_npac_6.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 28, 2016 Author Report Share Posted November 28, 2016 The lackluster SE ridge on the GFS is due to upstream differences. I wouldn't say it's the culprit, rather it's more of a consequence of the disorganized upstream block.Alright, appreciate the insight 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted November 28, 2016 Report Share Posted November 28, 2016 00z ECMWF looking more progressive initially. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 28, 2016 Report Share Posted November 28, 2016 The end of the GFS run looks like something epic could come later. Pretty likely we score big somewhere during December. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 28, 2016 Report Share Posted November 28, 2016 Not feeling it as much as we all WERE feeling it 5 days from 1950 in December 2004? Whatever happened to Stormchaserchuck? That was actually very late Dec or early Jan that winter. Biggest disappointment ever. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 28, 2016 Author Report Share Posted November 28, 2016 Day 6.. Block looks sickly, much weaker than last night's run http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ecmwf/2016112800/144/500h_anom.na.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 28, 2016 Report Share Posted November 28, 2016 Day 6.. Block looks sickly, much weaker than last night's run It's that stupid trough over extreme eastern Siberia that cleaves the block. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather101 Posted November 28, 2016 Report Share Posted November 28, 2016 Lol it's okay guys, it's better waiting, Right?!?!?? Quote 2013/2014 Winter season Coldest Low: 14 F December 7thColdest High: 27.3 F December 7thColdest Wind chill: 5 F December 7thLowest Dew Point: -2.2 F December 6thDays below freezing: 5Total Snowfall: 11 inchesMost snowfall in a Day: 8 inchesDays With Snow: 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 28, 2016 Author Report Share Posted November 28, 2016 Day 7 http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ecmwf/2016112800/168/500h_anom.na.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
luvssnow_spokane Posted November 28, 2016 Report Share Posted November 28, 2016 Winter sucks!!!! 3 Quote My Weather Station https://tempestwx.com/station/61434 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted November 28, 2016 Report Share Posted November 28, 2016 Looks like you may have made a great call here. In spite of wanting the real goods to hold off I probably got over anxious. To think the CFS is the model that has backed you up on this is funny. I do recall the CFS did well in short range stuff on past cold snaps also. Maybe if they ran the NAM out to 1600 hours it would do awesome. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chopper 918 Posted November 28, 2016 Report Share Posted November 28, 2016 Everything is looking like it should for early December in the PNW. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 28, 2016 Report Share Posted November 28, 2016 Winter sucks!!!! http---mashable.com-wp-content-uploads-2013-06-Jack-Nicholson.gif :lol: 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 28, 2016 Author Report Share Posted November 28, 2016 Day 8.... not sure I even need to bother posting days 9 and 10. Barf city http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ecmwf/2016112800/192/500h_anom.na.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted November 28, 2016 Report Share Posted November 28, 2016 Day 7 http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ecmwf/2016112800/168/500h_anom.na.png Close to being a very snowy pattern. As it is, likely snow pretty far south down the BC coast at day 7. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted November 28, 2016 Report Share Posted November 28, 2016 Well this ended badly Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 28, 2016 Author Report Share Posted November 28, 2016 The strangest 500mb pattern evolution I think I've ever seen.... http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2016112800/ecmwf_z500_mslp_npac_9.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heavy Snow Posted November 28, 2016 Report Share Posted November 28, 2016 http://stream1.gifsoup.com/webroot/animatedgifs3/1899644_o.gifWinter sucks!!!! http---mashable.com-wp-content-uploads-2013-06-Jack-Nicholson.gifLMFAO! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
liquidsnow Posted November 28, 2016 Report Share Posted November 28, 2016 http://i.imgur.com/gvHlJfN.gif 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chopper 918 Posted November 28, 2016 Report Share Posted November 28, 2016 http://i.imgur.com/gvHlJfN.gif I'm moving to Alaska.Oh my...pure comedy!!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted November 28, 2016 Report Share Posted November 28, 2016 The strangest 500mb pattern evolution I think I've ever seen.... http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2016112800/ecmwf_z500_mslp_npac_9.png In reality it'll probably undercut with raging SW flow and temps in the 50s. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted November 28, 2016 Report Share Posted November 28, 2016 Looks fairly similar to GFS by day 8, but a little colder. If these solutions pan out, gotta hand it to Goofus. It was ahead of the other models this time. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 28, 2016 Author Report Share Posted November 28, 2016 http://i.imgur.com/gvHlJfN.gifLMAO Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted November 28, 2016 Report Share Posted November 28, 2016 Well early bedtime for me. I'll be dreaming of better model runs... Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted November 28, 2016 Report Share Posted November 28, 2016 Also important to note that iFred wished this upon us. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dan the Weatherman Posted November 28, 2016 Report Share Posted November 28, 2016 Day 8.... not sure I even need to bother posting days 9 and 10. Barf city http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ecmwf/2016112800/192/500h_anom.na.png Doesn't look too promising for CA, either. Yesterdays run was showing the trough off the coast and over CA, as opposed to the Intermountain region this time around. NW flow with a trough well inland is a dry pattern for the state and that is something we don't need right now! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 28, 2016 Author Report Share Posted November 28, 2016 There is something models are not initializing correctly, or the upper level pattern recognition. My hunch. Day 9Strong block finally. http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ecmwf/2016112800/216/500h_anom.na.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chopper 918 Posted November 28, 2016 Report Share Posted November 28, 2016 So does this mean no white Christmas?? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 28, 2016 Author Report Share Posted November 28, 2016 My hunch is models come back around to very cold solutions. Not sure by 12z tomorrow, but before Wednesday. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chopper 918 Posted November 28, 2016 Report Share Posted November 28, 2016 My hunch is models come back around to very cold solutions. Not sure by 12z tomorrow, but before Wednesday.All kidding aside, I agree with you Rob. Like I said earlier, I think by Thursday, we'll all be giddy again. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted November 28, 2016 Report Share Posted November 28, 2016 One thing quite different about this run is that big low in the middle of the Pacific and south of blocking ridge. It's like a Kona low on steroids, and displaced way too far north. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 28, 2016 Author Report Share Posted November 28, 2016 One thing quite different about this run is that big low in the middle of the Pacific and south of blocking ridge. It's like a Kona low on steroids, and displaced way too far north.Yes, very strangely so. I'm sticking to it. Models are not initializing things correctly, or the upper level pattern recognition. My hunch. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
luvssnow_spokane Posted November 28, 2016 Report Share Posted November 28, 2016 http://i.imgur.com/gvHlJfN.gifLMFAO!!! Funny thing is I just did the same thing... Quote My Weather Station https://tempestwx.com/station/61434 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted November 28, 2016 Report Share Posted November 28, 2016 Looks fairly similar to GFS by day 8, but a little colder. If these solutions pan out, gotta hand it to Goofus. It was ahead of the other models this time.Looks like 850s bottom out around -8 to -9 up near the border. I could think of worse outcomes. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 28, 2016 Author Report Share Posted November 28, 2016 Day 10 .. 500mb pattern isn't worth showing anyone with working vision or human eyes. However, we do manage a good backdoor cold shot.. http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2016112800/ecmwf_T850_nwus_11.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
luvssnow_spokane Posted November 28, 2016 Report Share Posted November 28, 2016 There is something models are not initializing correctly, or the upper level pattern recognition. My hunch. Day 9Strong block finally. http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ecmwf/2016112800/216/500h_anom.na.png Heck lets just push it all back to day 10.... It is how we roll! Quote My Weather Station https://tempestwx.com/station/61434 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heavy Snow Posted November 28, 2016 Report Share Posted November 28, 2016 The updated run of the 00z EURO was not good. We get teased at best with the Arctic Blast headed for the Midwest and East Coast like in the GFS. http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ecmwf/2016112800/240/500h_anom.na.png http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ecmwf/2016112800/240/sfcmslp.na.pnghttp://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ecmwf/2016112800/240/850t.na.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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