November 2016 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[SilverFallsAndrew]

18z ensembles are s**t too. Fortunately, we're talking about the 18z.

Definitely a trend now though

[Front Ranger]

Definitely a trend now though

 

Eh, it didn't really look much like the Euro or GEM.

[Gradient Keeper]

Looking at 18z GFS Ensembles 500mb anomaly, it looks like they might be better than 12z were. If so, it won't be by much.

Once again the overall potential is unchanged. If we have a stronger ridge/block we will get nailed.

[luvssnow_spokane]

Drunk uncle is now... "uncle doom"...

[Gradient Keeper]

Eh, it didn't really look much like the Euro or GEM.

Yeah 12z, 18z GFS, nothing even close to either.

[chopper 918]

Give it a few days. I think around Thursday, we'll be happy.

[Gradient Keeper]

Watch the Drunk Uncle paves the way to disappointments, severe doom and gloom, newly polished forks, and chants evolving into loud screams of "Winter Cancel!" across the Pacific Northwest. You drunken bastard, look what you've done!!!!

 

Until we see the GEM/ECMWF Ensembles look terrible I wouldn't even raise any concern over the GFS.

 

0z runs will bring back the glory, the fun, and all the snowy/cold hopes and dreams inside all of us.

[snow_wizard]

Look like PDX will come in below 50 today!

[Gradient Keeper]

Look like PDX will come in below 50 today!

A bone chilling 46.8 at my location currently near west Gresham !!!!

[chopper 918]

42.8 for the high here.

[HighlandExperience]

The good thing about this run is it shows a baroclinic band SLOWLY SAGGING SOUTH WITH COLD ENOUGH AIR ON THE north side for snow. Thickness sags below 522 for SEA before day 10. Still a realistic shot at lowland snow with this.

 

D**n caps lock key!

This

[Front Ranger]

Definitely still a shot at lowland snow with this. Especially northern areas.

[snow_wizard]

The 18z ensemble isn't terrible. The mean 850mb temp drops to -7 for Seattle. Cold enough for snow.

[Gradient Keeper]

Forecast Hour 66

Here is the high pressure dome which evolves into our Aleutian Ridge, and then GOA ridge/Alaskan block. All models initialize the general placement of the ridge showing good agreement on this. *Currently this area of High Pressure is over eastern Mongolia* You can see by early Wednesday morning it is moving off Japan. I'm thinking once the high pressure has moved off Japan into the Pacific models will then have a fairly concrete idea on how strong it will be, how much amplification, and where it will set up in relation to 160 W/western AK. Until that point it's likely models are going to struggle a bit at times handling the overall upper level pattern across the North Pacific, Aleutians, and Gulf of Alaska.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016112712/gfs_mslp_wind_wpac_12.png

[Sometimesdylan]

Yup.  The pattern is unmistakably getting better.  Good enough for now.

 

Still shows a lot of cold up here. Even if the 18z does not show you guys getting exactly what you want to see, it still shows some favorable stuff. 

[Deweydog]

Forecast Hour 66. Here is the high pressure dome which evolves into our Aleutian Ridge. You can see it is moving off Japan early Wednesday morning. I'm thinking once the high pressure has moved off Japan into the Pacific models will then have a fairly concrete idea on how strong it will be, how much amplification, and where it will set up in relation to 160 W/western AK. Until that point it's likely models are going to struggle a bit at times handling the overall upper level pattern.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016112712/gfs_mslp_wind_wpac_12.png

 

Too many/not enough butterflies flapping their wings in western China.  

[Deweydog]

PDX stays in the 40's (presumptively) for the first time on the first day of the season they are supposed to.  

 

We're right on track!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Looks like after a brief respite this week things will trend wet again. 

[MossMan]

Another 5 or so days and we can start tracking with the NAM!!!!!!

[Phil]

Yeah, the d11-15 18z GEFS looks super familiar. Each of the last three winters have featured this dominant pattern at one point or another. Hudson Bay vortex/+NAO, -EPO/-PNA, anchored under a strong PV aloft.

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/3F97737B-36A9-4EB3-84DC-09F39B7C77D2_zpso7ggnnq3.gif

[Gradient Keeper]

I don't think we'll see models move closer to zeroing in on any final solutions until Wednesday 00z at the earliest.

[Gradient Keeper]

Another 5 or so days and we can start tracking with the NAM!!!!!!

The NAM will be highly utilized to clear up the speculation and feet wringing of this impending event.

 

In 4-5 days we can track things in real-time on WV/IR Loops. My favorite thing ever.

[luvssnow_spokane]

Another 5 or so days and we can start tracking with the NAM!!!!!!

I will be using the CFS...

[Jesse]

Yeah, 42.7.

Do you live at PDX?

[Jesse]

I sure hope PDX can stay below 50 for Jesse's sake. They may do it with rain about to begin.

They did it!

 

I am utterly shocked. Still wouldn't rule out a spike between now and midnight.

[Jesse]

18z looks better for frost late in the week. Great run for that. The trend is our friend!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

They did it!

 

I am utterly shocked. Still wouldn't rule out a spike between now and midnight.

 

Down to 46 now. 

[Jesse]

Down to 46 now.

The next 7 hours will be VERY telling.

[Weather101]

Don't need it to be epic, cold enough for snow is fine.

[Gradient Keeper]

00z GFS in 2 hours 38 minutes!!!!

[MossMan]

Don't need it to be epic, cold enough for snow is fine.

Highs around 27 and lows around 12 with at least a foot of snow would work just fine.

[Weather101]

Highs around 27 and lows around 12 with at least a foot of snow would work just fine.

Save that for March.

[MossMan]

Save that for March.

Fine...18 for a high and -2 for a low with 2 feet of snow. Like 2008!

[Weather101]

Fine...18 for a high and -2 for a low with 2 feet of snow. Like 2008!

I'll take it!!!! ☃☃

[chopper 918]

Do you live at PDX?

Yeah on the couch next to the payphone at gate D3.

[Jesse]

Yeah on the couch next to the payphone at gate D3.

Nice. Quite the cold anomaly at that spot!

[chopper 918]

Nice. Quite the cold anomaly at that spot!

I live in Beaverton on top of Cooper Mountain at 775 feet.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Breezy raining and 40 degrees. Feels like early winter!

[chopper 918]

42.9 so far for me.

[Jesse]

I live in Beaverton on top of Cooper Mountain at 775 feet.

 

Oh nice! That's pretty close to where we used to live (Bull Mountain).

 

We used to go to Cooper Mountain park all the time.