snow_wizard Posted November 27, 2016 Report Share Posted November 27, 2016 I prefer cold onshore flow. At least will get good mountain snow. I prefer Arctic blasts with snow myself. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighlandExperience Posted November 27, 2016 Report Share Posted November 27, 2016 Far from terrible pattern there.Could be much worse Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 27, 2016 Author Report Share Posted November 27, 2016 Far from terrible pattern there.As good as previous ECMWF Ensembles have looked and 12z EPS today..... I'm not discouraged. Also, the pattern begins to setup upstream just before day 6 now.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 27, 2016 Report Share Posted November 27, 2016 Just an opinion but west is way worse. I would much rather have cool and dry with offshore flow than continued SW flow and rain at this point. At least it's going to be below normal. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted November 27, 2016 Report Share Posted November 27, 2016 I still see see the potential for something along the lines of early December 1992 or 94'. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 27, 2016 Author Report Share Posted November 27, 2016 We could always extrapolate an already complex pattern and mention the possibility of the low pressure around the GOA pushing southward, allowing the high pressure offshore to merge with the high pressure over the Aleutians...it is the weirdest 500mb evolution I can recall.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chopper 918 Posted November 27, 2016 Report Share Posted November 27, 2016 Could have a fog-version with a 9000 ft. freezing level. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted November 27, 2016 Report Share Posted November 27, 2016 There is potential for some decentness, especially for Tim and maybe me, and really a chance for everyone. An arctic blast was always unlikely. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted November 27, 2016 Report Share Posted November 27, 2016 it is the weirdest 500mb evolution I can recall.... It probably won't actually evolve like that. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 27, 2016 Author Report Share Posted November 27, 2016 The overall potential for a long lasting cold spell, possibly bitter cold (snowy?) has not changed to me. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 27, 2016 Author Report Share Posted November 27, 2016 Of course the drunk Uncle today will feature some ridiculous ice-age type blast with temps -5 for PDX..... 18z in 2 hours 18 minutes!!!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 27, 2016 Report Share Posted November 27, 2016 The overall potential for a long lasting cold spell, possibly bitter cold (snowy?) has not changed to me. We're headed the right way. That's the important thing for now. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crf450ish Posted November 27, 2016 Report Share Posted November 27, 2016 Left Puyallup to head home @ 9am. Snoqualmie pass bare & wet. 34F @ pass. Hardly any snow at highway level. Upper peaks had a beautiful layer of snow. Always brings a nostalgic feeling when I see fir trees covered with snow. Currently driving through Vantage now. 45F & sunny. I expected it to be in the low 40's or upper 30's over here this time of day. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted November 27, 2016 Report Share Posted November 27, 2016 What does the GLAAM say will happen? Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted November 27, 2016 Report Share Posted November 27, 2016 At least it's going to be below normal.We'll see. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted November 27, 2016 Report Share Posted November 27, 2016 Just an opinion but west is way worse. I would much rather have cool and dry with offshore flow than continued SW flow and rain at this point.You just made cold onshore flow cry. Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted November 27, 2016 Report Share Posted November 27, 2016 We'll see. A cut-off low could mean some decent nocturnal thunderstorm action. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted November 27, 2016 Report Share Posted November 27, 2016 So far for the month: Average High 56.2Average Low 41.7Mean: 49.0Departure: +8.3Precip: 10.60" (+0.20)Max: 73Min: 34 If I have a December average high that is exactly normal (1980-2010 norms) It will be about 17 degrees lower than this month so far. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather101 Posted November 27, 2016 Report Share Posted November 27, 2016 Not expecting a huge blast, Models 10-11 days out show ice age cold then as we get closer it warms a little. That's expected lol it will never get that cold here but I see nothing wrong with 30F and snow lol Quote 2013/2014 Winter season Coldest Low: 14 F December 7thColdest High: 27.3 F December 7thColdest Wind chill: 5 F December 7thLowest Dew Point: -2.2 F December 6thDays below freezing: 5Total Snowfall: 11 inchesMost snowfall in a Day: 8 inchesDays With Snow: 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Swamp Posted November 27, 2016 Report Share Posted November 27, 2016 There is potential for some decentness, especially for Tim and maybe me, and really a chance for everyone. An arctic blast was always unlikely.My wife always says I have potential. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 27, 2016 Author Report Share Posted November 27, 2016 Colder runs ahead - MBG Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather101 Posted November 27, 2016 Report Share Posted November 27, 2016 As it comes together it falls apart.Still in wait and see. Quote 2013/2014 Winter season Coldest Low: 14 F December 7thColdest High: 27.3 F December 7thColdest Wind chill: 5 F December 7thLowest Dew Point: -2.2 F December 6thDays below freezing: 5Total Snowfall: 11 inchesMost snowfall in a Day: 8 inchesDays With Snow: 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted November 27, 2016 Report Share Posted November 27, 2016 Colder runs ahead - MBGAnd warmer ones too - NBC Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
luvssnow_spokane Posted November 27, 2016 Report Share Posted November 27, 2016 Quote My Weather Station https://tempestwx.com/station/61434 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
van city Posted November 27, 2016 Report Share Posted November 27, 2016 It's time to go to the Godzilla model to settle things down. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted November 27, 2016 Report Share Posted November 27, 2016 Did I mention this winter is going to be epic for our Canadian friends? 7 Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather101 Posted November 27, 2016 Report Share Posted November 27, 2016 Quote 2013/2014 Winter season Coldest Low: 14 F December 7thColdest High: 27.3 F December 7thColdest Wind chill: 5 F December 7thLowest Dew Point: -2.2 F December 6thDays below freezing: 5Total Snowfall: 11 inchesMost snowfall in a Day: 8 inchesDays With Snow: 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
luvssnow_spokane Posted November 27, 2016 Report Share Posted November 27, 2016 Did I mention this winter is going to be epic for our Canadian friends?That would be highly rare and unusual... Quote My Weather Station https://tempestwx.com/station/61434 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather101 Posted November 27, 2016 Report Share Posted November 27, 2016 1 Quote 2013/2014 Winter season Coldest Low: 14 F December 7thColdest High: 27.3 F December 7thColdest Wind chill: 5 F December 7thLowest Dew Point: -2.2 F December 6thDays below freezing: 5Total Snowfall: 11 inchesMost snowfall in a Day: 8 inchesDays With Snow: 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighlandExperience Posted November 27, 2016 Report Share Posted November 27, 2016 That would be highly rare and unusual... Did I mention this winter is going to be epic for our Canadian friends? Yup 99% of Canada excluding a 10 X 10 mile radius around Vancouver BC =) 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 27, 2016 Report Share Posted November 27, 2016 Did I mention this winter is going to be epic for our Canadian friends? We're pretty close to Canada here. I still say we get nailed this winter. Actually having it wait is probably better in the long run. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 27, 2016 Report Share Posted November 27, 2016 As I've mentioned the CFS has been insisting we get hit later in the month. It has been pretty unexcited about the early December potential. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted November 27, 2016 Report Share Posted November 27, 2016 As I've mentioned the CFS has been insisting we get hit later in the month. It has been pretty unexcited about the early December potential.It has, as you know I follow it with fervent devotion 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heavy Snow Posted November 27, 2016 Report Share Posted November 27, 2016 It's time to go to the Godzilla model to settle things down. Been busy since 10am watching football so haven't had a chance to look at the EURO. I did just briefly glance at the updated run of the 12z JMA and it looks great. Arctic Front already at the Canada-US border at Day 8 and ready to cross the border. Fantasy Football is more important for me today so might not have much time looking at models, I'll try to briefly glance at them and post if anything major happens. http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/jma/2016112712/jma_z500a_namer_9.pnghttp://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/jma/2016112712/jma_T850_namer_9.pnghttp://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/jma/2016112712/jma_T850_us_9.png 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather101 Posted November 27, 2016 Report Share Posted November 27, 2016 2 Quote 2013/2014 Winter season Coldest Low: 14 F December 7thColdest High: 27.3 F December 7thColdest Wind chill: 5 F December 7thLowest Dew Point: -2.2 F December 6thDays below freezing: 5Total Snowfall: 11 inchesMost snowfall in a Day: 8 inchesDays With Snow: 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 27, 2016 Report Share Posted November 27, 2016 It has, as you know I follow it with fervent devotion I think the CFS has it's place. It just has to be used carefully. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather101 Posted November 27, 2016 Report Share Posted November 27, 2016 It has, as you know I follow it with fervent devotionOnly look at it when it shows cold ☃☃☃ 1 Quote 2013/2014 Winter season Coldest Low: 14 F December 7thColdest High: 27.3 F December 7thColdest Wind chill: 5 F December 7thLowest Dew Point: -2.2 F December 6thDays below freezing: 5Total Snowfall: 11 inchesMost snowfall in a Day: 8 inchesDays With Snow: 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 27, 2016 Report Share Posted November 27, 2016 Been busy since 10am watching football so haven't had a chance to look at the EURO. I did just briefly glance at the updated run of the 12z JMA and it looks great. Arctic Front already at the Canada-US border at Day 8 and ready to cross the border. Fantasy Football is more important for me today so might not have much time looking at models, I'll try to briefly glance at them and post if anything major happens. The JMA is interesting. It depicts a baroclinic band with a boat load of snow on the northern part of it. Maybe a Dec 1974 situation where the Seattle area got smacked with about a foot.. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted November 27, 2016 Report Share Posted November 27, 2016 We're pretty close to Canada here. I still say we get nailed this winter. Actually having it wait is probably better in the long run. Not saying you're getting excluded. But I think this winter will be especially special for those north of the border. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather101 Posted November 27, 2016 Report Share Posted November 27, 2016 2 Quote 2013/2014 Winter season Coldest Low: 14 F December 7thColdest High: 27.3 F December 7thColdest Wind chill: 5 F December 7thLowest Dew Point: -2.2 F December 6thDays below freezing: 5Total Snowfall: 11 inchesMost snowfall in a Day: 8 inchesDays With Snow: 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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