November 2016 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[stuffradio]

That would be highly rare and unusual...

It has been for us in SW BC around Vancouver area.

 

I'm suffering this month with about 14" of rain.

[IbrChris]

12z runs...minimum PAI
 

12z GFS: -2.5
12z Euro: -2.4
12z GEFS: -0.7
12z Euro EPS: -2.1
12z CMC Ens: -1.9
 

MUCH improvement over the 12z suite yesterday and even an improvement over the 00z ensembles for the Euro (GFS ensembles are the warm outliers in the envelope). Higher confidence in an arctic blast vs 24 hours ago. Arctic front looks to move southward through western Canada around Dec 4-6 which may usher arctic air into the PNW during the Dec 6-12 timeframe.

[Gradient Keeper]

12z EPS looks pretty good and suggestive that the arctic trough digs down over us.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf-ens/2016112712/ecmwf-ens_z500a_namer_10.png

[Gradient Keeper]

 

12z runs...minimum PAI

 

12z GFS: -2.5

12z Euro: -2.4

12z GEFS: -0.7

12z Euro EPS: -2.1

12z CMC Ens: -1.9

 

MUCH improvement over the 12z suite yesterday and even an improvement over the 00z ensembles for the Euro (GFS ensembles are the warm outliers in the envelope). Higher confidence in an arctic blast vs 24 hours ago. Arctic front looks to move southward through western Canada around Dec 4-6 which may usher arctic air into the PNW during the Dec 6-12 timeframe.

 

Oh yeah that is a big improvement. Curious, what were the PAI maximum values?

[IbrChris]

Oh yeah that is a big improvement. Curious, what were the PAI maximum values?

+1.6 GFS, +1.5 GEFS, +0.8 Euro, +1.0 Euro EPS, +1.3 CMC Ens

[stuffradio]

Come on Euro!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Jim, what do you think of my early December 1992 parallels? 

[Weather101]

Come on Euro!

The king!

[Gradient Keeper]

I'm just waiting for upcoming runs to show a more stable/sturdy ridge/block before day 10... I find it hard to believe the block holds for only 48 hours before being beaten down and then reorganizing....

[luvssnow_spokane]

I don't know about anyone else I am getting really excited to hear from the drunken uncle again. Anyone else!? 

[luvssnow_spokane]

I'm just waiting for upcoming runs to show a more stable/sturdy ridge/block before day 10... I find it hard to believe the block holds for only 48 hours before being beaten down and then reorganizing....

agreed! right now that ridge is pretty timid and this would most likely become a wham bam thank you Ma'am type of event... Then again I guess we could call it one hell of a warning shot! 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Comparing my current monthly mean to the all-time record November at my location it looks like I am currently running +1.1F of the all-time warmest November. Here are things as of today.

 

2016: 49.0

1980: 47.9

1949: 47.1

1954: 46.8

1995: 46.6

 

Will be interesting to see where it ends up. The next few days will definitely drop it. 

[snow_wizard]

Jim, what do you think of my early December 1992 parallels? 

 

It has been a pretty persistent analog although I don't recall that being such a wet season.

[snow_wizard]

Comparing my current monthly mean to the all-time record November at my location it looks like I am currently running +1.1F of the all-time warmest November. Here are things as of today.

 

2016: 49.0

1980: 47.9

1949: 47.1

1954: 46.8

1995: 46.6

 

Will be interesting to see where it ends up. The next few days will definitely drop it. 

 

I'm sitting at 49.6 after yesterday.  Pretty crazy.

 

Today has turned chilly though with the current temp only 45 at 1 PM.

[snow_wizard]

I sure hope PDX can stay below 50 for Jesse's sake.  They may do it with rain about to begin.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I'm sitting at 49.6 after yesterday.  Pretty crazy.

 

Today has turned chilly though with the current temp only 45 at 1 PM.

 

Right now I am sitting at 41. 42/37 so far today. 

[chopper 918]

42 for the high so far here.

[Front Ranger]

Right now I am sitting at 41. 42/37 so far today. 

 

+10 anomalies everywhere!

[MossMan]

43 and drizzle here.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

+10 anomalies everywhere!

We just don't win anymore! 

[Front Ranger]

12z Euro ensembles continue to look solid, better than operational.

 

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

CFS says NO. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

That mid-week system should bring the snow level down to about 2000-2500' feet. 

[chopper 918]

CFS says NO.

And?

[SilverFallsAndrew]

And?

 

No to an early December blast. The week after Christmas looks good. 

[chopper 918]

Oh good because I put a lot trust the 720 hour forecast. Smh.

[Deweydog]

52

 

There will be a south wind spike this afternoon ahead of the next system.

Better get it in gear, Mr. Warmth.

[chopper 918]

Better get it in gear, Mr. Warmth.

Yeah, 42.7.

[stuffradio]

As of a couple hours ago, I hit the 14" mark of rain this month.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

At hour 138 the Aluetian High is a little further East, offshore high a little more suppressed vs. the 12z. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

As of a couple hours ago, I hit the 14" mark of rain this month.

 

Congratulations. 

[Front Ranger]

Blocking ridge looking a little squeezed on 18z. Too much energy in Aleutians interfering. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

My manual rain gauge came today! 

[bainbridgekid]

High of just 43 here so far.

 

Feels downright frigid.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I feel like this is going to look a little more like the Canadian...

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Blocking ridge looking a little squeezed on 18z. Too much energy in Aleutians interfering. 

 

Yep

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Cold onshore flow...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016112718/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_nwus_31.png

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just not enough amplification on this run. 

[Prairiedog]

Things usually get pushed east as we get closer so maybe we'll be good.

Almost always. Coriolis effect. 

[Weather101]

Just not enough amplification on this run.

Could be worse.