November 2016 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[Trainwreck]

Phil is like a small dose of reality.

 

Everyone wants an arctic blast but few go hog wild when one is depicted at HR 384.

 

I, for one, would take a blast in December and January and two in February.

 

Never would you hear me forgo one in December with the thought that waiting until January will make it "more epic". Screw that! Give me as many as I can get.

10/4. I'll take what I can get. Hopefully sooner than later. Get real wizard. If one came now it would be better than in January, simply cause it came now. It's hard enough to get all together, let alone at a certain time.

[crf450ish]

Basically my whole life we've been on a warm run...With a couple good events interspersed. 

I have heard rumors that a rapid warm up (stretched out during a human lifetime) precedes a cooling trend. I would like to think this holds true. If so, I believe all of us on here are going to witness some seriously spectacular weather in the next couple decades. I could be wrong, buuuuttttt I hope not. 

[Trainwreck]

00z looking fairly similar to the runs last night so far. Hopefully they keep trending this way.

[stuffradio]

10th day this month now with at least 0.50" of rain. 6th such day in a row. Had 14 days with over half an inch of rain in October, so a total of 24 since October 1st.

Congratulations

[Phil]

This run should be notably better than the 18z.

[Brennan]

A few of my posts from last night, FWIW:

 

        

One liners. You are just examining what the models are showing just like any of us. What is your take on the likelihood of certain things happening given all of the insane knowledge you have? That's all I'm asking. And I'm asking because I respect what you have to say 100% of the time and you've been rather ho hum IN COMPARISON to how you were a week or so ago. (I did get what you said about work etc so it's cool!)

[Gradient Keeper]

Through HR 138 - Energy holding well back into the western Bering Sea just like on 00z last night....

[van city]

Through HR 138 - Energy holding well back into the western Bering Sea just like on 00z last night....

Keep the updates coming.

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 6 block is setting up too quickly in my opinion

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2016112800/144/500h_anom.na.png

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Congratulations

 

[Phil]

One liners. You are just examining what the models are showing just like any of us. What is your take on the likelihood of certain things happening given all of the insane knowledge you have? That's all I'm asking.

I gave my thoughts on the matter Friday evening. I suspect the early December stuff is more of a "tease", with better potential for a significant Arctic blast (-EPO/-AO type pattern) sometime around the Holidays into early January, followed by a warmer/ridgier pattern for a few weeks thereafter.

 

Then I think another potential window exists towards the end of January, into February. The late December blast might slide east of the Rockies, but I think the February pattern will argue against that happening again..

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 7

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2016112800/168/500h_anom.na.png

[Brennan]

I gave my thoughts on the matter Friday evening. I suspect the early December stuff is more of a "tease", with better potential for a significant Arctic blast (-EPO/-AO type pattern) sometime around the Holidays into early January, followed by a warmer/ridgier pattern for a few weeks thereafter.

 

Then I think another potential window exists towards the end of January, into February. The late December blast might slide east of the Rockies, but I think the February pattern will argue against that happening again..

That was friday, this is Sunday night. What are your updated thoughts? You've made some comments about what the models are showing periodically... Do you think this has potential or do you think we are just being teased. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Well it is at least a bit slower with the cold air than the 18z...

[Phil]

That was friday, this is Sunday night. What are your updated thoughts? You've made some comments about what the models are showing periodically... Do you think this has potential or do you think we are just being teased.

My thoughts haven't changed. I think this is mostly a tease.

 

Will still be a cooler than average pattern, but I believe late December has a much higher chance at sexiness.

[Gradient Keeper]

Yuck... Ridge doesn't hold.... just wimpy....

[bainbridgekid]

Block looks pretty weak at 180.

 

[MossMan]

Yuck... Ridge doesn't hold.... just wimpy....

The GEM will be a gem and the EURO will be worldly tonight!

[Phil]

Yuck... Ridge doesn't hold.... just wimpy....

It looks fine to me. Just a bit disorganized to start.

[GobBluth]

It looks fine to me. Just a bit disorganized to start.

Yeah looks like two different ridges combine.

[luvssnow_spokane]

Yuck... Ridge doesn't hold.... just wimpy....

I think the ridge is fine.... we shall see. two ridges?

[Gradient Keeper]

Compared to 00z last night at day 6-7, the ridge was more broad initially before it really amplified and on this run this ridge sets up way too soon, disorganized. The block complex over Alaska/Aleutians is such a strange looking evolution.... Like I said earlier, the ridge of high pressure that becomes THIS ridge is just now moving out of eastern Mongolia. Trust me, a lot can change

[Deweydog]

What's with all the ridge divisiveness???

 

We're supposed to be unifying right now!!!

[luvssnow_spokane]

Looks pretty cold ... Dec 5 - 6th

 

 

[snow_wizard]

Oh kiddo.

 

You're the one who loves to say it all evens out in the end.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Through hour 228 it gets a little chilly, but not cold... Well maybe on the east side and if there is any outflow... But definitely no arctic air. 

[snow_wizard]

Keep the updates coming.

 

Love the avatar!

[Kayla]

Pretty decent run IMO. Would be a frigid Columbia Basin and chilly flow through the gorge.

[Deweydog]

You're the one who loves to say it all evens out in the end.

It will, relatively speaking. Thinking there is some inevitability of something spectacular in the next 75 days goes way beyond that though. It's cheerleading.

[snow_wizard]

My thoughts haven't changed. I think this is mostly a tease.

 

Will still be a cooler than average pattern, but I believe late December has a much higher chance at sexiness.

 

Looks like you may have made a great call here.  In spite of wanting the real goods to hold off I probably got over anxious.  To think the CFS is the model that has backed you up on this is funny.  I do recall the CFS did well in short range stuff on past cold snaps also.

[GobBluth]

That Hawaii moisture is screwing with ideal retrogression

[luvssnow_spokane]

About two days of -6 to -8 850mb temps... Then a rapid warm up. SO a real yawner specially when compared to other runs. Enjoy the slush why it lasts. Warning shot...

[Gradient Keeper]

00z GEM Day 6

 

http://maps3.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ggem/2016112800/144/500h_anom.na.png

[snow_wizard]

It will, relatively speaking. Thinking there is some inevitability of something spectacular in the next 75 days goes way beyond that though. It's cheerleading.

 

Oh...I was never suggesting it would even out that quickly.  I meant over the next few to several years.

[Brennan]

I'm still not convinced that things won't flip back. Models flip flop like this every time something either does or doesn't happen. It could happen, it may not. 

[snow_wizard]

Pretty decent run IMO. Would be a frigid Columbia Basin and chilly flow through the gorge.

 

Certainly MUCH better than where we have been the past few weeks.  Still a realistic shot at lowland snow.

[catnip]

It has rained almost every day for two months in Vancouver:

 

http://globalnews.ca/news/3091539/it-has-rained-almost-every-day-for-two-months-in-vancouver/

[Gradient Keeper]

Looks like the GEM may spill the energy too far offshore, then the trough gets cut off... if I had to guess.

[snow_wizard]

I'm still not convinced that things won't flip back. Models flip flop like this every time something either does or doesn't happen. It could happen, it may not. 

 

Truthfully...I'm not feeling it at this point.  There is just something missing.

[HighlandExperience]

Certainly MUCH better than where we have been the past few weeks.  Still a realistic shot at lowland snow.

 

Right. Looks like areas north of Olympia might see some wet snow. Still lots of potential.