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November 2016 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

Gradient Keeper

By Gradient Keeper
in West of the Rockies

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snow_wizard Grand Master

snow_wizard

Posted
Posted

Very decent model runs tonight.  All of the mesoscale models show at least some snow.  Weatherbell has an ECMWF WRF for when things get closer.

 

Pretty surprising to see the ECMWF surface maps going for highs around freezing on three days for Seattle.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Front Ranger
Front Ranger

Did I mention this winter is going to be epic for our Canadian friends?

Front Ranger
Front Ranger

I'm serious. A lot of signs point to a northern-favored winter, especially for snowfall.

liquidsnow
liquidsnow

I bought a new TV.   The last time I bought a TV? December 2008. The time before that? December 1996.   You're welcome.

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Heavy Snow Newbie

Heavy Snow

Posted
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IDK. I feel like this is a really common forecast model myth.

 

As much as we'd like to believe it, the fact the models may appear to have trended colder does not make them more likely to continue getting colder IMO.

 

If anything, it shows how close a pattern is to not being as cold (since previous runs showed that.)

Valid points but I just feel in this particular situation the models are underestimating how far South the Arctic air drops. Day 7 and 8 of tonight's EURO illustrate this perfectly with how big the trough is encompassing the entire Western US and how it digs to Mexico. If we just saw these maps and nothing else we would definitely be thinking we would be getting an Arctic Blast. Also a nice SE Ridge starts to develop.

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ecmwf/2016112900/168/500h_anom.na.png

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ecmwf/2016112900/192/500h_anom.na.png

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f3e7e3bf2f29b1e9cdb92d7e39e709f1.jpg

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snow_wizard Grand Master

snow_wizard

Posted
Posted

Another comment I wanted to make about the stat showing Portland will go for 300+ days without a freeze.  The previous record was in 1983 and as we all know Dec 1983 through Dec 1985 was a very cold period...in fact there has not been a colder two year run since.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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snow_wizard Grand Master

snow_wizard

Posted
Posted

Valid points but I just feel in this particular situation the models are underestimating how far South the Arctic air drops. Day 7 and 8 of tonight's EURO illustrate this perfectly with how big the trough is encompassing the entire Western US and how it digs to Mexico.

 

 

I really like the ULL to our east.  Nice insurance that some cold air will be forced in over us.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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snow_wizard Grand Master

snow_wizard

Posted
Posted

I'm loving some of the analogs.  Another one popping up a lot is 1971..another December that had warning shots before something great in January.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Gradient Keeper Grand Master

Gradient Keeper

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Posted

Valid points but I just feel in this particular situation the models are underestimating how far South the Arctic air drops. Day 7 and 8 of tonight's EURO illustrate this perfectly with how big the trough is encompassing the entire Western US and how it digs to Mexico. If we just saw these maps and nothing else we would definitely be thinking we would be getting an Arctic Blast. Also a nice SE Ridge starts to develop.

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ecmwf/2016112900/168/500h_anom.na.png

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ecmwf/2016112900/192/500h_anom.na.png

I agree there is potential for models to turn colder.

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snow_wizard Grand Master

snow_wizard

Posted
Posted

I just calculated my freeze free period was 234 days here this year. Very abnormal.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Weather101 Newbie

Weather101

Posted
Posted

Few days of cold and snow, I'll take it!!

2013/2014 Winter season

Coldest Low: 14 F December 7th

Coldest High: 27.3 F December 7th

Coldest Wind chill: 5 F December 7th

Lowest Dew Point: -2.2 F December 6th

Days below freezing: 5

Total Snowfall: 11 inches

Most snowfall in a Day: 8 inches

Days With Snow: 3

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snow_wizard Grand Master

snow_wizard

Posted
Posted

I don't think Portland has been in the 30's yet. Not sure though

I think Seattle has had a couple. They have also had some highs in the 40s. Looks like everyone will see a freeze next week though.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Bryant Community Regular

Bryant

Posted
Posted

Valid points but I just feel in this particular situation the models are underestimating how far South the Arctic air drops. Day 7 and 8 of tonight's EURO illustrate this perfectly with how big the trough is encompassing the entire Western US and how it digs to Mexico. If we just saw these maps and nothing else we would definitely be thinking we would be getting an Arctic Blast. Also a nice SE Ridge starts to develop.

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ecmwf/2016112900/168/500h_anom.na.png

 

Don't really agree with your line of thinking. Take the 500mb configuration currently for example. You'd think 850's would be tanked right? Nope

 

http://i.imgur.com/cYPzvJ8.png

 

http://i.imgur.com/UQoN8W0.png

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bainbridgekid Veteran

bainbridgekid

Posted
Posted

Don't really agree with your line of thinking. Take the 500mb configuration currently for example. You'd think 850's would be tanked right? Nope

 

 

 

 

500mb heights are a surprisingly poor predictor of surface temperatures.

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Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation)

Snow since February 2019: 91"

2023-24: 6"

2022-23: 17.5"

2021-22: 17.75"

2020-21: 14.5”

2019-20: 10.5"

2018-19: 24.75"

 

 

 

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Gradient Keeper Grand Master

Gradient Keeper

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Posted

I'm kind of in a neutral state right now.. Yesterday I was optimistic models would improve today.. and it could go either way from here. Really hoping for the better.

Oh yeah, just because we have tonight's set of runs and ensembles showing good improvement it doesn't mean things won't turn unfavorable.

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Brennan Rising Star

Brennan

Posted
Posted

HR 96 Biggest difference from 00z is the trough is cutting off further back into Baja, may promote a strong SE ridge.

Hardly noticeable difference but I guess small changes over several days can make a difference, especially when talking about patterns affecting this region! Not sure it will this round though.

 

Edit: not sure what to think at day 5. I think trying to analyze the models on a tiny phone screen at work is making me go nuts.

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Gradient Keeper Grand Master

Gradient Keeper

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Hardly noticeable difference but I guess small changes over several days can make a difference, especially when talking about patterns affecting this region! Not sure it will this round though.

Yeah, they are minor differences, but the overall 500mb pattern from the Aleutians to the southeast US those slight changes increase after HR 120

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