November 2016 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[TT-SEA]

Any I guess, of if you want to give a brief summary....

 

 

How about day 15...

 

[Deweydog]

Block is much stronger, smarter and sexier.

 

Maybe it's Maybelline.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

I wont even get serious about this Until the NAM comes out.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Sunday morning looks kind of fun. 

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 5

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2016112918/120/500h_anom.na.png

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 6 .. Block is trying hard to remain sturdy. Looks promising

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2016112918/144/500h_anom.na.png

[Heavy Snow]

How about day 15...

 

Day 5

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2016112918/120/500h_anom.na.png

 

Looks familiar. 

[Gradient Keeper]

Merging with Aleutian ridge?  = SCORE for us if so

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Looks like an improvement over the 12z. 

[Deweydog]

Merging with Aleutian ridge? = SCORE for us if so

Undercut.

[Gradient Keeper]

Wow, actual cold, arctic offshore flow this run

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016112918/gfs_T850_nwus_26.png

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Sunday morning looks good for a shot of snow for me, but Sunday night/Monday morning looks like the real show. 

[Gradient Keeper]

Low moving up from Hawaii much slower to develop on this run.

[Heavy Snow]

The updated run of the 18z GFS continues to show sub 522mb thickness with lots of moisture around. Moisture looks potentially heavier in this run.

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2016112918/126/prateptype_cat.us_nw.pnghttp://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2016112918/132/prateptype_cat.us_nw.pnghttp://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2016112918/138/prateptype_cat.us_nw.pnghttp://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2016112918/144/prateptype_cat.us_nw.pnghttp://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2016112918/150/prateptype_cat.us_nw.pnghttp://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2016112918/156/prateptype_cat.us_nw.png

[Phil]

This run looks slightly more progressive than the 12z, but no huge changes within the believable range. Decent pattern regardless.

[Gradient Keeper]

We were so close to seeing our offshore ridge retrograde/merge into a strong block pulled back towards 155 W... Closest yet to a cold run.

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 8 Wow Aleutian block is 10 times stronger than previous runs

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2016112918/192/500h_anom.na.png

[Gradient Keeper]

Who's to say 00z tonight doesn't merge the ridge/block and we see that very strong block around 160 W? we were an eyelash away from it on this run.

[Phil]

Day 8 Wow Aleutian block is 10 times stronger than previous runs

That looks way too far west, IMO.

[Phil]

So far west, in fact, that the shortwave coming out of southern Alaska is able to retrograde out, and nearly merges with the Kona Low thereafter. Lol.

[Brennan]

That looks way too far west, IMO.

The entire first half of January 1969 featured a block just a tad too far west... i think... lots of 38-32 days with wet snow.

[Gradient Keeper]

Hell yeah. Snow storm PDX! Strong east wind PDX-DLS -8mb to -10mb and moisture becomes ample. Major overrunning event potential.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016112918/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_nwus_34.png

 

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016112918/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_nwus_35.png

[Sometimesdylan]

Oh no!

Oh yes?

[Heavy Snow]

Hell yeah. Snow storm PDX! Strong east wind PDX-DLS -8mb to -10mb and moisture becomes ample. Major overrunning event potential.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016112918/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_nwus_34.png

 

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016112918/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_nwus_35.png

 

That's what I'm talking about! 

[Timmy]

several inches of snow wednesday-thursday for pdx http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016112918/gfs_asnow_nwus_37.png

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Quite the AR into N cal and S Oregon at 228-252

[Weather101]

☃

[westcoastexpat]

18Z GFS is a great run so far. 4-6" for a lot of people plus a reload in the fantasy range.

[Gradient Keeper]

Quite the AR into N cal and S Oregon at 228-252

Jet suppression. 1862 ???? I think that was the year....

[Gradient Keeper]

Yeah, it's the 18z, but the pattern unfolded exactly like others, only minor tweaks and we were almost golden. A believable 18z run through day 8.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

[Phil]

Holy mother of blocking beyond d10. Gotta love the clown range GFS.

[Timmy Supercell]

What are the chances K-Falls gets an above normal December for snowfall like last year? 

[Phil]

Classic bi-hemispheric wavebreak in the clown range. The essence of model porn.

 

That EPO/NPAC breaker then phases with the NAO/NATL breaker. End result is a massive block over the pole.

[Phil]

Eh, spoke to soon. They don't phase..it's a near miss, but perilously close to something epic.

[Deweydog]

Classic bi-hemispheric wavebreak in the clown range. The essence of model porn.

 

That EPO/NPAC breaker then phases with the NAO/NATL breaker. End result is a massive block over the pole.

An Arctic outbreak in the Arctic!!!

[Gradient Keeper]

Classic bi-hemispheric wavebreak in the clown range. The essence of model porn.

 

That EPO/NPAC breaker then phases with the NAO/NATL breaker. End result is a massive block over the pole.

On this run was saw our offshore ridge retrograde and nearly fully merge with the very healthy Aleutian block which would have pulled it near 160 W. No other runs have shown this. How likely do you think that 500mb progression is???

[seattleweatherguy]

So snow possible sat into sun and sun into monday?

[Gradient Keeper]

One thing I am loving with the runs recently are they continue to show bitter air going into Yukon/upper BC areas. Big potential for very cold temps if we get into the right pattern heading into the holidays.

YES. Exactly

[Phil]

On this run was saw our offshore ridge retrograde and nearly fully merge with the very healthy Aleutian block which would have pulled it near 160 W. No other runs have shown this. How likely do you think that 500mb progression is???

From a 500mb (anomaly) perspective, they technically do phase and quite coherently at that. The MSLPs/raw heights can be deceptive. That entire N/NEPAC domain features higher than average pressures/heights on all the modeling. It's just a large, poleward propagating anticyclonic wavebreaking event.