November 2016 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[Poulsbo Snowman]

​You made dry ice?

[Timmy Supercell]

Early December was always a tease/warmup IMO. I like the Holidays (mid/late December into early January) more, before a hiatus thereafter followed by an even bigger event in February.

 

Gotta love -ENSO/+QBO climo.

 

Many winters hiatuses aren't really that long cascades eastward. But yeah I know Portland can have something for 1 week and not have it for more than a month or two at a time.

[IbrChris]

Lol.

 

If that happens I bet Jim finally packs it up and moves east.

Average coldest daily high/low at Portland 1981-2010

 

Dec: 34/24

Jan: 36/25

Feb: 40/24

 

Last time Dec failed to reach freezing was 1953 so we're due. For Jan it was 2010 (35) and for Feb 1961 (35)

[snow_wizard]

2008 was pretty cold

The winter as a whole was meh temperature wise. Without January being solidly cold a really cold winter overall is pretty hard to achieve.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Holy cow. What are you gonna do with 160 acres?

hide from people!!

[snow_wizard]

Average coldest daily high/low at Portland 1981-2010

 

Dec: 34/24

Jan: 36/25

Feb: 40/24

Can we all say pathetic?

[snow_wizard]

hide from people!!

How on Earth could you afford 160 acres? Yikes!

[Front Ranger]

What are you talking about? He's been a member here for years. Doesn't matter where you live

 

Rampant placism around here sometimes.

[Gradient Keeper]

00z ECMWF

Begins in.... 3 minutes

 

GFS was decent. GEM was much improved. King EURO needs to get on board. Let's see the trend continuing of the Aleutian ridge/GOA block becoming just a bit stronger, healthier.

 

Feel free to play along(You may need to refresh pages)

Northwest view - http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf&region=nwus&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2016112300&fh=0&xpos=0&ypos=197

North American view - http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf&region=namer&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2016112300&fh=0&xpos=0&ypos=197

North Pacific view - http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf&region=npac&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2016112300&fh=0&xpos=0&ypos=197

Alaska view - http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf&region=ak&pkg=T850&runtime=2016112612&fh=0

[IbrChris]

How on Earth could you afford 160 acres? Yikes!

160 unimproved acres in somewhere like White Pine County, Nevada would probably run under $1,000 an acre.

[Front Ranger]

Looking like a theme of recurring cold showing up on the models now.  Could be a series of cold snaps which will ultimately culminate in the big one.  Very different progression than what we've seen in quite some time.

 

FWIW the CFS is going bananas with the cold lately.

 

The blocking signal is definitely bananas.

 

The last time it was this strong at this point was 2009, but of course that was an El Stinko.

[Jesse]

SW flow..poor Jesse.

It's true. I really am the only one who hates warm rain here in the winter.

[IbrChris]

Can we all say pathetic?

Wasn't that great in prior 30 year periods...going back even to the 1800s. It's always been something like 30-35 / 20-25.

[Phil]

Can we all say pathetic?

Yeah, especially given your latitude.

 

Your coldest average January low for this century is actually warmer than my average January low.

[IbrChris]

It's true. I really am the only one who hates warm rain here in the winter.

If I don't have a winter banana crop it just doesn't seem like winter.

[snow_wizard]

For those who are wondering where 2008-09 ranked it was the 26th coldest winter since 1895 for the Puget Sound lowlands. It was the coldest of this century though.

[IbrChris]

Yeah, especially given your latitude. Your coldest January low is actually warmer than my average January low.

Contrast that with my folks' in Idaho, average coldest daily high/low 1981-2010:

 

Dec: 12/-10

Jan: 12/-13

Feb: 17/-8

[MossMan]

hide from people!!

I cannot tell you how much I want exactly that. I would put my house right in the middle of the 160 acres so I would be completely secluded. Someday.

[snow_wizard]

Wasn't that great in prior 30 year periods...going back even to the 1800s. It's always been something like 30-35 / 20-25.

Seems hard to believe given all of the really cold winters back then.

[stuffradio]

If I don't have a winter banana crop it just doesn't seem like winter.

I'm personally fond of Pineapple and Mango crops.

[Front Ranger]

I think we have a realistic shot at coldest winter of the century so far.  That's not saying all that much, but I'm really liking the progression.

 

If you include Dec-Mar, 2008-09 was no slouch. But of course, a really cold January would make a huge difference.

[HighlandExperience]

How on Earth could you afford 160 acres? Yikes!

You'd be surprised at how cheap land is in some places. I've seen a few properties around colville around 80 to 100 acres for less than 200k

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Its to bad we cant go out to 600hrs on the gfs then we could really party!!

[snow_wizard]

Yeah, especially given your latitude. Your coldest January low for this century is actually warmer than my average January low.

 

January has really struggled the past 35 years.

[Phil]

Contrast that with my folks' in Idaho, average coldest daily high/low 1981-2010:

 

Dec: 12/-10

Jan: 12/-13

Feb: 17/-8

Now that's more like it. Pacific Ocean FTW.

[snow_wizard]

You'd be surprised at how cheap land is in some places. I've seen a few properties around colville around 80 to 100 acres for less than 200k

Wow!

[Front Ranger]

Can we all say pathetic?

 

Not for December!

[BLI snowman]

Yeah, especially given your latitude. Your coldest January low for this century is actually warmer than my average January low.

 

You have an average daily low below 18 in January? Or do you mean your average extreme monthly low for January?

[Gradient Keeper]

11/29/16 9:46 PM 00z GFS Ensembles

 

Portland, Seattle, Vancouver BC
More improvement. For Portland, Check out how many cold -5c to -10c members there are in the long range now. Seattle and Vancouver, BC even colder. There is REAL potential models trend colder folks.

 

Portland

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_Portland_Oregon_USA_ens.png

 

 

Seattle

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_Seattle_USA_ens.png

 

 

Vancouver, BC

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_Vancouver_Kanada_ens.png

[IbrChris]

Seems hard to believe given all of the really cold winters back then.

Dec was especially mild in the 1800s, Jan and Feb were generally colder when considering the coldest low of the month

 

Dec 1874 31 deg coldest low

1875: 33

1877: 35

1882: 31

1886: 30

1888: 31

1895: 30

 

Lots of Dec with 27-29 too.

 

Only two that went below 20:

 

Dec 1879: 3

Dec 1884: 12

[snow_wizard]

Now that's more like it. Pacific Ocean FTW.

Also keep in mind the outlying areas are quite a bit colder than SEA and PDX. Especially on the minimum temps.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Wow!

 

Yeah because that place is hell warmed over. Beautiful country though. 

[Front Ranger]

Yeah, especially given your latitude. Your coldest January low for this century is actually warmer than my average January low.

 

 

You're reading it wrong. That's the average January low for PDX, not the coldest.

[snow_wizard]

Dec was especially mild in the 1800s, Jan and Feb were generally colder when considering the coldest low of the month

 

Dec 1874 31 deg coldest low

1875: 33

1877: 35

1882: 31

1886: 30

1888: 31

1895: 30

 

Lots of Dec with 27-29 too.

 

Only two that went below 20:

 

Dec 1879: 3

Dec 1884: 12

For sure. January was a MUCH bigger month back then and February also. Really weird how the center of our winter has trended so much earlier.

[IbrChris]

Also keep in mind the outlying areas are quite a bit colder than SEA and PDX. Especially on the minimum temps.

Yeah I'm guessing OLM probably sees something closer to 18-22 for DJF coldest low on average

[Phil]

You have an average daily low below 18 in January? Or do you mean your average extreme monthly low for January?

Sorry, compared to PDX's JAN average "extreme" low. Our average low bottoms out at ~ 22.5 degrees in mid/late JAN.

[snow_wizard]

Already down into 30s tonight.

[Front Ranger]

Already down into 30s tonight.

 

Heart of winter is almost here.

[Phil]

You're reading it wrong. That's the average January low for PDX, not the coldest.

It's the average coldest, not absolute coldest.

[Jesse]

Sorry, compared to PDX's JAN average "extreme" low. Our average low bottoms out at ~ 22.5 degrees in mid/late JAN.

Your climate is so much better than ours!