November 2016 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[SilverFallsAndrew]

It would take a December 1919 followed by a January 1930 to make up these warm anomalies! 

[Deweydog]

It would take a December 1919 followed by a January 1930 to make up these warm anomalies!

Not in Olympia!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Right now sitting at 11.85" of rain on the month. 

[MossMan]

44 degrees here and breezy!

[Jesse]

I wonder if we will be able to score a freeze next week.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I wonder if we will be able to score a freeze next week.

 

It will probably depend on cloud cover. The 06z trended drier, which is bad for snow chances early in the week, but better for freeze chances!

[Jesse]

It will probably depend on cloud cover. The 06z trended drier, which is bad for snow chances early in the week, but better for freeze chances!

We probably weren't going to get snow out of this one anyway so I'll take it!

 

I'm thinking you should see both, though.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

We probably weren't going to get snow out of this one anyway so I'll take it!

 

I'm thinking you should see both, though.

 

Yes, though honestly it is looking less and less likely I'll see significant snow. 

[Deweydog]

12z...

 

Yep, you guessed it, blocking is stronger like ox!

[Jesse]

12z 850 temps are also colder than 6z from Monday-Wednesday.

Good to hear Brian!

[chopper 918]

Game on!  LOL

[FroYoBro]

12z showing more snow than 6z, in general. Moisture looks to hang around just a touch longer. This is before any overrunning with Thursday system.

 

12z:

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016113012/gfs_asnow_nwus_30.png

 

6z:

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016113006/gfs_asnow_nwus_31.png

 

These maps are super inaccurate btw. Most of the lowland snow is not really going to happen. It is more of a elevation issue that the model isn't picking up on.

[FroYoBro]

Posting more for a) showing the potential for improvement and showing the potential for more precip around than currently modeled by some runs. Obviously it will (most likely) not work out exactly as the map shows, but it helps to get an idea for any trends, PSCZ signatures, etc.

 

I guess we can just say screw those maps? Not sure the point of them updating those if they are so inaccurate...

 

I just wasn't sure if you were aware of that. No biggie. I'm not telling you to stop posting them. 

[ShawniganLake]

12Z Canadian is warmer and wetter than the GFS.  Pick your poison.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2016113012/gem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_nwus_21.png

[HighlandExperience]

Some good graphics on that post when it comes to ensembles. I like the one below, where most members show Seattle (metro) getting snow at some point next week. Half of the members show 2 or more inches. Obviously better chances with higher elevation/away from the water. Encouraging.

 

He had a pretty good write up on our snow chances.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I would say the 12z is a pretty major improvement over the 06z. Lots of potential for low snow levels in the long range too. 

 

On the 12z 850s bottom out at -8C at SLE with 518 thickness. It also brought back more moisture Sunday night/Monday morning. 

[Jesse]

I would say the 12z is a pretty major improvement over the 06z. Lots of potential for low snow levels in the long range too.

 

On the 12z 850s bottom out at -8C at SLE with 518 thickness. It also brought back more moisture Sunday night/Monday morning.

Yeah, the 12z is much improved for early next week. I noticed a small cluster of 06z ensembles making a dip toward -10c in the day 6-7 time frame and it looks like the 12z op trended that way.

 

The whole 12z is pretty chilly. You would get buried with snow. Little doubt America would be great again if that verified.

[BLI snowman]

I would say the 12z is a pretty major improvement over the 06z. Lots of potential for low snow levels in the long range too. 

 

On the 12z 850s bottom out at -8C at SLE with 518 thickness. It also brought back more moisture Sunday night/Monday morning. 

 

Overrunning possibilities continue to look good, too. Holding onto the east wind next Wednesday would make a few hours of accumulating snow a good bet for most of us. 

[Jesse]

At this point most models show us staying pretty chilly/La Nina-y throughout most of the extended with flirtations of low snow levels on/off. That's saying a whole lot more than anything we've had the past 4 years.

 

Nice to see regardless of any snow next week, IMO.

I agree.

[Gradient Keeper]

12z GFS coldest anomalies yet . Ridge was the strongest yet too. I noticed the low moving up from Hawaii developed a bit further west and as well the ridge in the plains was more robust. This run was the closest yet to a modified blast. You have to like the trend with the ridge becoming just a bit stronger, healthier/robust every run. Let's keep that going with the next 3-4 runs. The key is that low developing just northwest of Hawaii. This run as I mentioned it developing further northwest, didn't "weigh" down the western periphery of the block holding it in place longer, plus the ridge in the central US helped a lot. Also, the GEFS keeps the mean ridge position in the GOA and as long as it remains blocky out there our chances for cold/arctic air is always promising. The long range is real chilly, especially north of OLM/SEA so much jet suppression we almost score big time. Kind of reminds me of the old time patterns of the 1800's.

 

12z ECMWF
Begins in.... NOW

Is this the run the EURO shifts towards the GFS with a stronger, healthier block? I hope so.

Feel free to play along(You may need to refresh pages)
Northwest view - http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf&region=nwus&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2016112912&fh=0&xpos=0&ypos=197
North American view - http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf&region=namer&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2016112912&fh=0&xpos=0&ypos=197
North Pacific view - http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf&region=npac&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2016112912&fh=0&xpos=0&ypos=197
Alaska view - http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf&region=ak&pkg=T850&runtime=2016112912&fh=0

[Gradient Keeper]

12z GFS Ensembles. Best yet. Mean temps have dipped, colder members. The GFS has been remarkably consistent and improved every run.

 

Portland

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_Portland_Oregon_USA_ens.png

 

 

Seattle

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_Seattle_USA_ens.png

 

 

Vancouver, BC

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_Vancouver_Kanada_ens.png

[Gradient Keeper]

At this point most models show us staying pretty chilly/La Nina-y throughout most of the extended with flirtations of low snow levels on/off. That's saying a whole lot more than anything we've had the past 4 years.

 

Nice to see regardless of any snow next week, IMO.

Absolutely.

[Gradient Keeper]

Global wave pattern may be slowing, now at 5. It was at 6 three days ago. A less progressive pattern would favor us now that the GOA block may be a dominant theme.

[Gradient Keeper]

WRF much colder. 925mb temps -15c to -18c Columbia Basin. That will really help out PDX with any possible overrunning/transition events.

[stuffradio]

The 12Z CMC shows tons of snow for WA/OR and SW BC through 10 days. Low resolution though.

[bainbridgekid]

WRF much colder. 925mb temps -15c to -18c Columbia Basin. That will really help out PDX with any possible overrunning/transition events.

Definitely a very noticeable difference.

 

The -8 925mb line also gets close to Seattle Tuesday morning.

[Gradient Keeper]

12z ECMWF Day 3 - I see no improvements yet with EURO

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ecmwf/2016113012/072/500h_anom.na.png

[westcoastexpat]

12Z GFS looks really good.

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 4

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ecmwf/2016113012/096/500h_anom.na.png

[GobBluth]

Day 4

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ecmwf/2016113012/096/500h_anom.na.png

really a completely different way out in the pacific than the gfs.

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 5

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ecmwf/2016113012/120/500h_anom.na.png

[Deweydog]

Complex pattern.

[Gradient Keeper]

Compared to 12z yesterday the top of the block is a bit beefier, and healthier overall

 

12z yesterday

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2016112912/ecmwf_z500_mslp_npac_7.png

 

 

and today. May favor a bit better tilt

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2016113012/ecmwf_z500_mslp_npac_6.png

[Heavy Snow]

I just looked at the updated run of the 12z GFS and it shows a classic overrunning event on Wednesday night. 

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016113012/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_nwus_30.png

[Gradient Keeper]

Perhaps some slight improvements.... trending towards GFS? Not sure about that yet

[Gradient Keeper]

I just looked at the updated run of the 12z GFS and it shows a classic overrunning event on Wednesday night. 

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016113012/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_nwus_30.png

Likely.

WRF has a strong PDX-DLS gradient funneling arctic air into PDX keeping the cold layer thick.

 

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/wrfrt/data/2016113012/images_d2/slp.180.0000.gif

[Timmy]

Complex pattern.

Hot take!

[Gradient Keeper]

12z ECMWF

Looks like arctic air digging back into eastern WA better on this run piling up against the Canadian Rockies trying to go

[Heavy Snow]

Likely.

WRF has a strong PDX-DLS gradient funneling arctic air into PDX keeping the cold layer thick.

 

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/wrfrt/data/2016113012/images_d2/slp.180.0000.gif

 

Yeah, the East Winds will be roaring for sure. Not to mention areas east of the Cascades will be below freezing with lots of snow cover which should delay the transition to rain.

[Jesse]

Likely.

WRF has a strong PDX-DLS gradient funneling arctic air into PDX keeping the cold layer thick.

 

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/wrfrt/data/2016113012/images_d2/slp.180.0000.gif

That's a sexy map. Too bad it's 7 days out.