November 2016 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[IbrChris]

Portland hasn't done anything after that though. Even the 2014 event was the first real snowstorm for us in a while. 

 

I wonder how this Euro run compares with the other ensemble members. 

Last 4"+ snowfall since Dec 2008 in Portland

[HighlandExperience]

Washington State western lowlands and north has had laughable meager amounts of snow since January 2012. Think I am running at a total of 4" over the past four years. Pathetic and laughable at the same time.

The greatest insult was the 14/15 ski season. Great by eastern standards, but absolutely pathetic for the Cascades.

[Timmy Supercell]

The greatest insult was the 14/15 ski season. Great by eastern standards, but absolutely pathetic for the Cascades.

 

'14-'15 was one of Klamath's worst winters.. Not joking. I'm fully expecting this winter to give something.

[Front Ranger]

Portland hasn't done anything after that though. Even the 2014 event was the first real snowstorm for us in a while. 

 

I wonder how this Euro run compares with the other ensemble members. 

 

Of course, Feb 2014 was the best widespread, February snowfall event(s) in a long time for the Willamette Valley/Portland.

[Brennan]

Of course, Feb 2014 was the best widespread, February snowfall event(s) in a long time for the Willamette Valley/Portland.

Bellingham had close to a foot of snow in february and barely missed a second foot a week later. bryant and i had fun with that one

[stuffradio]

Seriously? Man, you guys really are suffering.

I've literally had 0 accumulating snow the past couple winters.

[HighlandExperience]

I've literally had 0 accumulating snow the past couple winters.

That is pathetic. Lowlands of BC have really been shafted with dry cold in recent winters.

[Weather101]

That was fun reading the last couple pages

[Bryant]

That was fun reading the last couple pages

 

Go King Euro!

[Jesse]

That is pathetic. Lowlands of BC have really been shafted with dry cold in recent winters.

Dry cold hasn't been the problem. Just less cold overall.

[Weather101]

Go King Euro!

In Euro we trust

[James Jones]

Of course, Feb 2014 was the best widespread, February snowfall event(s) in a long time for the Willamette Valley/Portland.

That was quite an anomalous event for PDX. Prior to 2014, there was only one day on record with a high below 30 at the airport after Feb 4 (29 on 3/2/60), but the Feb 2014 event did it 3 days in a row on the 5th-7th.

 

Once you factor in cold, the only Feb events in the PDX era that were as good or better were 1989 (obviously the airport had too much wind to get accumulation but places farther from the gorge did better), 1949 for being consistently chilly and snowy for the first 3 weeks of the month, and early Feb 1950 - not much snow fell in that month but it had deep snowcover from the madness in January, and PDX set its all-time record low of -3 on the 2nd.

 

Though of course, if you look back before airport records, February produced a lot more consistently and had a much easier time getting sub-freezing highs deep into the month.

[IbrChris]

FWIW the Euro Weeklies from Monday suggest a prolonged cold period around Dec 28-Jan 12 timeframe with ensemble mean highs in the mid 30s and lows mid-upper 20s for about two weeks in Portland. The ensemble mean has 23.5" of snow over the next 45 days and virtually all members are showing some sort of snowstorm around Dec 13-14 with anywhere from 5-15". Several members show 40+" of snow during the entire period.

This might be the winter where January delivers.

[Weather101]

FWIW the Euro Weeklies from Monday suggest a prolonged cold period around Dec 28-Jan 12 timeframe with ensemble mean highs in the mid 30s and lows mid-upper 20s for about two weeks in Portland. The ensemble mean has 23.5" of snow over the next 45 days and virtually all members are showing some sort of snowstorm around Dec 13-14 with anywhere from 5-15". Several members show 40+" of snow during the entire period.

 

This might be the winter where January delivers.

Sounds like fun times ahead down there.

[Brennan]

FWIW the Euro Weeklies from Monday suggest a prolonged cold period around Dec 28-Jan 12 timeframe with ensemble mean highs in the mid 30s and lows mid-upper 20s for about two weeks in Portland. The ensemble mean has 23.5" of snow over the next 45 days and virtually all members are showing some sort of snowstorm around Dec 13-14 with anywhere from 5-15". Several members show 40+" of snow during the entire period.

 

This might be the winter where January delivers.

december 13-14 or January?

[IbrChris]

december 13-14 or January?

Dec 13-14

[richard mann]

(cross-reference.)

 

http://theweatherforums.com/index.php/topic/1445-mid-fall-2016-colder-air-mass-movement-and-distribution-projections/?p=170498

[Bryant]

Latest from Cliff Mass

 

http://cliffmass.blogspot.com/2016/11/will-snow-hit-puget-sound-lowlands-in.html

[Brennan]

[Phil]

[Brennan]

I work graveyard monday through thursday so i'm up!!!

[Phil]

I work graveyard monday through thursday so i'm up!!!

Sounds thrilling.

 

I'll be spending the day cutting down a client's old, sickly White Pine that succumbed to blister rust in October. Yolo!

[mountainman]

hi new here like the snow lots like u guys cheers

[Phil]

This run isn't going to be very sexy in the LR.

[Bryant]

I work graveyard as well, when my 6 month old makes me. So tired

[Phil]

One thing that's bugging me is the EPS mean has trended weaker with the NPAC/AK blocking for 5 consecutive runs, to the point where Aleutian/AK troughing returns on the latest run during the 11-15 day range.

 

Also, there's a signal for a Scandinavian trough, which is a classic precursor to a strong +AO/+EPO, especially when coupled with a weak/flat NPAC ridge (which looks to occur as well, according to the EPS mean).

 

Might have to wait until the holidays for the next EPO dump.

[Dan the Weatherman]

'14-'15 was one of Klamath's worst winters.. Not joking. I'm fully expecting this winter to give something.

 

That was one terrible winter for the Sierra in CA as well. There was so little snowpack at the end of the season that there was hardly anything to measure for the April 1 snow survey.

[Brennan]

This doesn't look good... right?

[MossMan]

I take it the 6z was horrible???

[Phil]

This doesn't look good... right?

That's an "average" strength PV, at least in terms of the U-wind component @ 10mb/65N. Not a huge factor either way, though a weaker vortex would possibly be more ideal.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

6z wasn't good. Pretty much kills the moisture after the cold air arrives. 

[mountainman]

thats the norm tho

[TT-SEA]

Dreary and drippy in Minneapolis... they get a taste of 35 degree rain/snow slop.    We might have them beat in a few days.      

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

The overnight system was a lot juicier than I expected. Picked up 0.52" of rain overnight. Imagining that snow advisory in the Cascades verified already. 

[Timmy Supercell]

Just a very light amount of snow this morning. No more than 0.10". Makes my Nov total 1.20" so far. Still need more to reach my normal.

[Deweydog]

Mid 40's this morning.

 

Weird.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Mid 40's this morning.

 

Weird.

 

39 here...Life is good!

[Jesse]

Mid 40's this morning.

 

Weird.

PDX's glass basement!

[Deweydog]

PDX's glass basement!

You what'll break that glass???

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Last night at 8:30 I was down to 35 already. I looked half an hour later and it was raining and 39...Someday I'll get a freeze. Just not in November.