November 2016 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[TT-SEA]

Tuesday morning is shown to be cold on the 00Z GFS...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016113000/gfs_T2m_nwus_27.png

 

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016113000/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_nwus_26.png

[Deweydog]

Keep in mind, this is a WARNING SHOT.

[crf450ish]

This run looks dangerous.

You been to your cabin in Republic lately?

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Dangerously close to great.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Well through hour 162 this run is not any colder. Temps about the same. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Hour 162 that blocks about to get undercut.

[The Swamp]

At my house I could see lumpy rain.

 

Warning shot....weeeee!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Good overrunning potential

[Deweydog]

At least we still have the Canadian...

[The Swamp]

Hour 162 that blocks about to get undercut.

Thank you Debbie Downer.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

You been to your cabin in Republic lately?

Yes was just up there. Not much snow yet. I acually just bought a beautiful 160 acre piece that is surrounded by national forest and is fenced. This will be where i build my home. And it is even higher in elevation.

[Gradient Keeper]

SO much colder in southwest/southern BC this run

[Phil]

That little GOA shortwave kinda screws with the progression during d8-9. Actually pumps warmer than average 850mb temps in for a bit.

[crf450ish]

If theres any tell tale sign that something neat is coming, its the number of members on here right now. Looking at the bottom of my screen is indicative of such. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Holy ! The drought may be over

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016113000/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_nwus_33.png

[Deweydog]

Teency bit of vorticity in the GOA at 192.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

SO much colder in southwest/southern BC this run

 

This run for us though is slightly warmer, kicks the cold air out faster

[crf450ish]

Yes was just up there. Not much snow yet. I acually just bought a beautiful 160 acre piece that is surrounded by national forest and is fenced. This will be where i build my home. And it is even higher in elevation.

Where at? If you don't mind me asking....Interesting, as a 160 acre parcel of land near my place just sold. For sale sign was at the end of my driveway for months.

[Gradient Keeper]

Prediction: Block will get stronger on future runs. OH, and I'd really like to see King EURO get on board.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016113000/gfs_apcpn24_nwus_33.png

[Phil]

SW flow..poor Jesse.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Where at? If you don't mind me asking....Interesting, as a 160 acre parcel of land near my place just sold. For sale sign was at the end of my driveway for months.

 

2 miles south of chesaw.

[chopper 918]

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016113000/gfs_apcpn24_nwus_33.png

 

 

Hour 216...LOL

[crf450ish]

SO much colder in southwest/southern BC this run

stuffradio should be happy. 

[Phil]

This run could be fun in the uber-clown range though.

[stuffradio]

stuffradio should be happy.

I'm super happy

[Deweydog]

Euro: much stronger block

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Sometimes I wonder if I am looking at the same run as other people.

[stuffradio]

Sometimes I wonder if I am looking at the same run as other people.

They might be looking at the composites.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Good run for our BC friends!

[Deweydog]

Sometimes I wonder if I am looking at the same run as other people.

What run are you looking at?

[IbrChris]

Going to be pretty funny if Portland makes it through this cold spell next week without a freeze...odds of that occurring based on today's runs seems to be around 30% with the 50th percentile low temp for next Tue 33 and Wed 31. Looks like some sort of overrunning event Wed into Thu which might bring some snow or ZR to the Gorge and snow to the Cascades.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

At this point I don't see this being a big event for my location 2-4" more likely than +6"

[crf450ish]

I'm not sure what mechanism causes what I have noticed on the forecast models as well as real time doppler observations. Maybe its topography, maybe its airflow or elevation (probably elev.) but it appears that my specific location seems to get more snowfall than surrounding areas even though I tend to be a bit warmer by a couple degrees (observed).

 

For example, last year, Fruitland service station (about 10 miles north of my house) was -2F one day and only had a mere 8" of snow on the ground while my house had 12". I clearly remember the doppler showing nothing but snowfall from Coulee City clear over to Spokane and all the way up to Colville and down south to Odessa. I was not able to check how much snow the other towns had at the time.

 

Can anyone offer an explanation to what causes this? I am leaning towards topography and dew points. IDK... still learning. 

[Weather101]

Good run for our BC friends!

Move up here

[stuffradio]

I will love if I get hammered but I'll be sad for some of those not getting hit. I might have to make another YouTube video for Tim to hear more Canadian accents.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Going to be pretty funny if Portland makes it through this cold spell next week without a freeze...odds of that occurring based on today's runs seems to be around 30% with the 50th percentile low temp for next Tue 33 and Wed 31. Looks like some sort of overrunning event Wed into Thu which might bring some snow or ZR to the Gorge and snow to the Cascades.

 

The wishcaster's won't like this!

[Deweydog]

Michael J. Fox is pretty chilly.

[IbrChris]

The wishcaster's won't like this!

Probably will see a freeze at least Wed morning but it depends on whether high clouds move in earlier or later...definitely looks like some decent WAA aloft on Wed.

[Gradient Keeper]

00z GEM definitely improved from past 4 runs. Nice and cold offshore flow

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2016113000/gem_T850_nwus_30.png