November 2016 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[Gradient Keeper]

From a 500mb (anomaly) perspective, they technically do phase and quite coherently at that. The MSLPs/raw heights can be deceptive. That entire N/NEPAC domain features higher than average pressures/heights on all the modeling. It's just a large, poleward propagating anticyclonic wavebreaking event.

So they could merge and setup the block up more favorably for us the next 2-4 runs.

[bainbridgekid]

Nice to see the NWS mentioning snow (not even a mix) so far out. Pretty cold forecast for 5+ days out.

 

Seattle zone forecast:

 

SUNDAY NIGHT

http://images.wsdot.wa.gov/traffic/weaicons/snow.gif

MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S.

MONDAY

http://images.wsdot.wa.gov/traffic/weaicons/snow.gif

CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S.

MONDAY NIGHT

http://images.wsdot.wa.gov/traffic/weaicons/snow.gif

MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. LOWS NEAR 30.

TUESDAY

http://images.wsdot.wa.gov/traffic/weaicons/snow.gif

PARTLY SUNNY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE MID 30S.

[Gradient Keeper]

[ Model Countdown ]

Next up....

*00z GFS in 4 hours 17 minutes

00z GEM in 5 hours 17 minutes

00z ECMWF in 6 hours 35 minutes

[seattleweatherguy]

Not Sat-Sun. If anything Sun-Mon (marginal at this point), snow showers around Monday, then overrunning potential Thursday.

Thanks love to read models and here on the message board you guys are awesome

[Gradient Keeper]

18z GEFS 850mb/surface temp anomaly bit colder than previous runs for sure. It appears that through day 7-8 the drunk Uncle was not an outlier.

[Gradient Keeper]

500mb temp anomaly beyond day 10 shows stronger ridge over western Alaska and colder trough over us than all previous runs. Hmmmmm

[Gradient Keeper]

I hate it when I can't click ' Like ' lol..... anyone else? I'm too positive i guess. I'll try to be negative a bit more often.

[stuffradio]

 

[ Model Countdown ]

Next up....

*00z GFS in 4 hours 17 minutes

00z GEM in 5 hours 17 minutes

00z ECMWF in 6 hours 35 minutes

 

I'll be playing floor hockey. Can you just text me updates?

[SilverFallsAndrew]

The 18z shows 1.01" of precip falling at my location when temps should be cold enough for snow. At face value I would say this run is good for 5-9" of snow at my location From about 10am Sunday through 8pm Monday. 

[Gradient Keeper]

The 18z shows 1.01" of precip falling at my location when temps should be cold enough for snow. At face value I would say this run is good for 5-9" of snow at my location From about 10am Sunday through 8pm Monday. 

You're going to get dumped on. Enough to make some snow titties

[SilverFallsAndrew]

You're going to get dumped on. Enough to make some snow titties

 

COULD be my biggest snow event since February 2014. The Dec. 22-24th event last winter was decent. I think I got around 6" for a 3 day total. This one kind of reminds me a little of that one. Though at this point I think this one may be a little colder. If I recall correctly that one was really borderline even for my location. 

[Gradient Keeper]

18z Ensembles 850mb. Bit more improvement

 

Portland, Seattle

 

 

Hmmm, as moisture ramps up PDX 850mb doesn't get above 0c, then dips again....Stays at -2c with some colder members.... Intriguing. I wonder if we'll have east winds or not.

 

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_Portland_Oregon_USA_ens.png

 

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_Seattle_USA_ens.png

[SilverFallsAndrew]

The ensembles are relatively unchanged.

[Timmy Supercell]

COULD be my biggest snow event since February 2014. The Dec. 22-24th event last winter was decent. I think I got around 6" for a 3 day total. This one kind of reminds me a little of that one. Though at this point I think this one may be a little colder. If I recall correctly that one was really borderline even for my location. 

 

By Christmas time this place had a depth of 18". The bigger days were 12/13 when 7.50" fell and 12/17 when 6.00" fell. Just those 2 days made up about 40% of the monthly total. But there were many other snowfall days between 2" to 4.5". The stations in town had a lot more melting in between but instead here it kept piling up thanks to the additional few hundred feet and slightly cooler temps.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

The CFS this afternoon looks a lot like the 18z GFS. Keeps it cool until about the 20th than flat ridging for two weeks. A modified arctic intrusion in mid-January, ridging late January with an icebox east coast and then cold onshore flow the 2nd week of Feb. 

[van city]

It's time for this video again LOL When I saw my name in it I LOL so hard. Tim is mentioned and others too!

 

LOL, this made my day. I forgot how epic this was.

This place is a great little platform for all of us. I can't stop laughing as I am typing this.

[Bryant]

The 18z shows 1.01" of precip falling at my location when temps should be cold enough for snow. At face value I would say this run is good for 5-9" of snow at my location From about 10am Sunday through 8pm Monday.

What a shame, negative Nancy

[Gradient Keeper]

I really think it's like I have been saying. The ridge that becomes the Aleutian/GOA block is just now over Japan as seen in the chart below. Models obviously still do not have a handle on upper level pattern recognition. Seeing different solutions with today's 12z GEM, GFS, and ECMWF tells us this. I don't think there will be solid model agreement until Wednesday 00z and until then I feel models could turn colder/blockier, or remain with a solution similar to what we're seeing now.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016112918/gfs_mslp_wind_wpac_2.png

[Gradient Keeper]

LOL, this made my day. I forgot how epic this was.

This place is a great little platform for all of us. I can't stop laughing as I am typing this.

The "Rob" mentioned in the video is me. Lol Yeah I've watched it 8 times today and it never gets old.

[Front Ranger]

This run looks slightly more progressive than the 12z, but no huge changes within the believable range. Decent pattern regardless.

 

Maybe a couple days below normal for someone? 

[van city]

The "Rob" mentioned in the video is me. Lol Yeah I've watched it 8 times today and it never gets old.

Yes, I know, Tim's part is hilarious as well. LOL...

[andrewr]

I think the role of Hitler goes to Snow_wizard (Jim). That video was awesome coming from a long time lurker dating back to the Old Farmer's Almanac days.

[Phil]

Maybe a couple days below normal for someone?

I'm not sure what you're getting at here.

[Gradient Keeper]

Yes, I know, Tim's part is hilarious as well. LOL...

Haha, Tim and those SSTs!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Celebrate sunshine and ridging in this land of constant troughs

[TT-SEA]

The "Rob" mentioned in the video is me. Lol Yeah I've watched it 8 times today and it never gets old.

 

 

Its is funny.  

[Front Ranger]

I'm not sure what you're getting at here.

 

What you said a few days ago. This upcoming pattern would result in maybe a couple below normal days.

[bainbridgekid]

I've never felt so conflicted about a chance of snow.

 

I've enjoyed spending hours tracking every minute detail over the last several days but we have a field trip with 3 classes to the Pacific Science Center on Monday.

 

I still want it to snow, but D**n, cancelling the trip and possibly not getting our money back would really suck.

 

This might just be the kick in the pants the storm needs to over perform guys. You're welcome.

[FroYoBro]

I've never felt so conflicted about a chance of snow.

 

I've enjoyed spending hours tracking every minute detail over the last several days but we have a field trip with 3 classes to the Pacific Science Center on Monday.

 

I still want it to snow, but D**n, cancelling the trip and possibly not getting our money back would really suck.

 

This might just be the kick in the pants the storm needs to over perform guys. You're welcome.

You and your class must make a sacrifice for the snow gods. Sorry...

[snow_wizard]

The 12z WRF and high res mesoscale ECMWF both indicate decent snowfall next week.

[snow_wizard]

The CFS has been going pretty nuts lately. A lot of runs showing Dec, Jan, and Feb all being cold.

[Weather101]

[Weather101]

You and your class must make a sacrifice for the snow gods. Sorry...

That class must be canceled

[HighlandExperience]

The 12z WRF and high res mesoscale ECMWF both indicate decent snowfall next week.

Post the wxbell maps on tonight's run.

[seattleweatherguy]

Get those studs on now!

[HardDrinkinLincoln]

Winter tires went on this afternoon.

[Timmy Supercell]

Winter tires went on this afternoon.

 

On the 14th we did that, and the next day flakes were falling. lol

 

It's almost like putting them on caused Winter to arrive...

[Phil]

What you said a few days ago. This upcoming pattern would result in maybe a couple below normal days.

Huh? Where did I say this?

[Timmy]

Huh? Where did I say this?

I thought you have been more optimistic about our chances lately as opposed to past winters

[Phil]

I thought you have been more optimistic about our chances lately as opposed to past winters

Yeah, I became much more optimistic in this summer when the QBO failed to cycle negative. The Niña/+QBO combo rarely fails to deliver in the PNW.

 

The Niña/-QBO combo, on the other hand, fails more often than not, except during deep solar minimums.