November 2016 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[BLI snowman]

IDK how Clark County did, but most of the Central Valley got about 1-3" with that event, but anywhere with any elevation did really well. The hills around Salem got 6-8" as did Stayton and Sublimity which are around 450'. My current location got about 18". 

 

https://climate.usurf.usu.edu/reports/e15daily.php?stn=USC00357809&year=2002&month=1&unit=EN&network=direct:ghcn&sidebar=0

 

Yeah, I remember there was a deformation zone on the 27th that hit the Salem area hard. We did okay in Clark County, had a quick inch that melted overnight and then followed it up with a couple more inches the next morning that quickly melted. I suspect that there won't be as much juice this go-around.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I understand being obsessed with snow, and I even understand having that be a factor when moving. Last 2 years weren't good over this way no matter where you lived. Just frustrating seeing such negative posts coming from a member which I know will do just fine in the end. Posting that we're tracking 500' snow levels and a trace of overruning, especially when members put a lot of time into analyzing the models (DJ in particular), you come off as an a**. Just being honest

 

Well I am up at 3am analyzing them as well, and my 25 years following weather in this climate have taught me not to let my hopes get to high. 

[jcmcgaffey]

The WRF tends to be on the more "realistic" (see: pessimistic) side of things, due to a higher resolution, I believe. I do find that in some instances the WRF underplays things too. It has it's pros and cons.

 

I would think they are using the WRF at this point to confirm their idea that this won't amount to much/too early to tell. If they showed the other models, it wouldn't really fit into their current narrative.

Thanks.  I wasn't sure if they knew something special about it in this sort of situation that would lend them to trust that model more than any others at this time.  I am assuming it is a stand alone model and not pulling from any of the other model ie GFS or ECMWF.

[Gradient Keeper]

18z in 2 hours 8 minutes!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

18z in 2 hours 8 minutes!

Edge of my seat

[stuffradio]

Edge of my seat

Have you seen the drunk uncle yet today? We need to ask him what he will reveal!

[Timmy]

I understand being obsessed with snow, and I even understand having that be a factor when moving. Last 2 years weren't good over this way no matter where you lived. Just frustrating seeing such negative posts coming from a member which I know will do just fine in the end. Posting that we're tracking 500' snow levels and a trace of overruning, especially when members put a lot of time into analyzing the models (DJ in particular), you come off as an a**. Just being honest

So would you rather Andrew give false hope? No one pro met is expecting anything other than what he said, and 500' is on the bullish end of them at that. There is a reason they are pros and we are amateurs. They are right more often and aren't easily swayed by the highs of model swings.

[Timmy Supercell]

6 hours straight of freezing fog and visibility between 0.10 to 0.25 miles. It started in the low 20's, now still below freezing at 30.

[Timmy]

Anyone have the 12z euro snowfall map for oregon?

[stuffradio]

Saudi Arabia got snow last week.

http://strangesounds.org/2016/11/anomalous-snow-saudi-arabia-desert-videos-pictures.html

[SilverFallsAndrew]

So would you rather Andrew give false hope? No one pro met is expecting anything other than what he said, and 500' is on the bullish end of them at that. There is a reason they are pros and we are amateurs. They are right more often and aren't easily swayed by the highs of model swings.

 

I understand why some people may find me overly pessimistic and perhaps my tone does come off this way. I am actually fairly excited for the potential at my location, but with cautious optimism. I respect DJ's passion, I have "know" him for many years on the forums, blogs, and social media platforms and I think he does a great job posting, analyzing, etc... I think SnowWiz is great, and love reading his posts.

 

On the other hand, this pattern really does not have "great" potential...At all. No model is showing anything close to an arctic blast. Yes we could get modified arctic air in north of Seattle or into E. Washington, but there is no real mechanism for delivering serious cold deep into the PNW, even Seattle. The block is transitory, not amplified enough, and way to far west, not to mention it is vertical with no tilt. We talk about 500mb DM heights at 564 for Anchorage when we get blasts here, not even close with this.

 

This pattern has some potential. I have been saying it has the potential to be something like December 1992 or 94' at best case, I think BLI's January 2012 comparison is also a possibility. All three of those events DID produce widespread lowland snow. That is not out of the question, but probably not likely.

 

5 days out here is what I think is:

 

Likely: Snow levels in the 500-1000' range Sunday into Monday. Some lowland accumulations T-2" north of Seattle. 3-6" of snow for people like Tim, Timmy, and myself. Highs in the 38-43 range Mon-Wed for the major I-5 stations Seattle south, lows at most of the stations in the 28-33 range. If we get a good clear night we could see some cooler lows. If we have a cloudy day with an overrunning type event on the back end we could see cooler highs.

 

Possible but not likely: Snow levels bounce from the valley floors/sea level to 500' Sunday night-Monday. Overnight accumulations possible or in heavier showers Monday. Most areas get T-1", but a few lucky spots get 3-4" close to sea level with heavy precip, a few locations are left out entirely. Tim gets slammed with a convergence zone, more moisture than anticipated develops Sunday night/Monday morning south of the surface low and we both get about 8-10" of snow. Highs 35-40 Lows 25-30 most I-5 stations, we get a nice clear night and the usual cold spots like OLM, HIO, or EUG get into the upper teens. Sometime around mid-week there is an overrunning event which produces widespread 1-3" accumulations. I see this as possible, but chances are low.

 

Highly unlikely/off the table: Widespread significant snow Seattle-south with onset, arctic air south of Seattle on the west side. Widespread sub-freezing highs or lows in the teens. A significant overrunning event. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Saudi Arabia got snow last week.

http://strangesounds.org/2016/11/anomalous-snow-saudi-arabia-desert-videos-pictures.html

 

There are some pretty high mountains on the Arabian Pen...

[Timmy]

Anyone have the 12z euro snowfall map for oregon?

It must be really good!

[luvssnow_spokane]

It's time for this video again LOL When I saw my name in it I LOL so hard. Tim is mentioned and others too!

 

I was actually thinking of this video on my way to work and am so glad you posted it.!!! Absolutely fricken hilarious and fits our little community perfectly. A must watch for all members here. AWESOME!!!!!!!!!!!!           

[Guest Winterdog]

Anyone have the 12z euro snowfall map for oregon?

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016112912/gfs_asnow_nwus_41.png

[Timmy]

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016112912/gfs_asnow_nwus_41.png

That's the GFS silly

[TT-SEA]

Offshore flow seems to be missing so far like last year.

 

Last winter there was precipitation on over 90% of the days here compared to 68% based on the historical normal.    There was some cold onshore flow in December and early January last year but very little offshore flow.

 

It has rained on almost every day since the beginning of October and there is very little break ahead... just colder onshore flow.

 

I miss offshore flow.  

[Phil]

It's time for this video again LOL When I saw my name in it I LOL so hard. Tim is mentioned and others too!

 

[HighlandExperience]

Anyone have the 12z euro snowfall map for oregon?

Weather underground has a snowfall map feature for the EURO.

[Guest Winterdog]

That's the GFS silly

Whoops!

[Weather101]

Conor McGregor.

[Timmy]

Weather underground has a snowfall map feature for the EURO.

Yeah I like the wxbell one better

[HighlandExperience]

Yeah I like the wxbell one better

 

Ya so do I. Too bad I don't have a subscription.

 

Someone post the wxbell maps! 

[Gradient Keeper]

Saudi Arabia got snow last week.

http://strangesounds.org/2016/11/anomalous-snow-saudi-arabia-desert-videos-pictures.html

Fake picture. Tineye. com shows someone uploaded that picture as far back as February, 2013.

[Gradient Keeper]

I understand why some people may find me overly pessimistic and perhaps my tone does come off this way. I am actually fairly excited for the potential at my location, but with cautious optimism. I respect DJ's passion, I have "know" him for many years on the forums, blogs, and social media platforms and I think he does a great job posting, analyzing, etc... I think SnowWiz is great, and love reading his posts.

 

On the other hand, this pattern really does not have "great" potential...At all. No model is showing anything close to an arctic blast. Yes we could get modified arctic air in north of Seattle or into E. Washington, but there is no real mechanism for delivering serious cold deep into the PNW, even Seattle. The block is transitory, not amplified enough, and way to far west, not to mention it is vertical with no tilt. We talk about 500mb DM heights at 564 for Anchorage when we get blasts here, not even close with this.

 

This pattern has some potential. I have been saying it has the potential to be something like December 1992 or 94' at best case, I think BLI's January 2012 comparison is also a possibility. All three of those events DID produce widespread lowland snow. That is not out of the question, but probably not likely.

 

5 days out here is what I think is:

 

Likely: Snow levels in the 500-1000' range Sunday into Monday. Some lowland accumulations T-2" north of Seattle. 3-6" of snow for people like Tim, Timmy, and myself. Highs in the 38-43 range Mon-Wed for the major I-5 stations Seattle south, lows at most of the stations in the 28-33 range. If we get a good clear night we could see some cooler lows. If we have a cloudy day with an overrunning type event on the back end we could see cooler highs.

 

Possible but not likely: Snow levels bounce from the valley floors/sea level to 500' Sunday night-Monday. Overnight accumulations possible or in heavier showers Monday. Most areas get T-1", but a few lucky spots get 3-4" close to sea level with heavy precip, a few locations are left out entirely. Tim gets slammed with a convergence zone, more moisture than anticipated develops Sunday night/Monday morning south of the surface low and we both get about 8-10" of snow. Highs 35-40 Lows 25-30 most I-5 stations, we get a nice clear night and the usual cold spots like OLM, HIO, or EUG get into the upper teens. Sometime around mid-week there is an overrunning event which produces widespread 1-3" accumulations. I see this as possible, but chances are low.

 

Highly unlikely/off the table: Widespread significant snow Seattle-south with onset, arctic air south of Seattle on the west side. Widespread sub-freezing highs or lows in the teens. A significant overrunning event. 

Crap. Great post here. I tried to 'like' this but I have surpassed by quota. Yeah, until we see a run that actually shows a REAL block and less progressive pattern it's hard to get too excited. If I had to make a forecast it would be snow(sticking) level down to 500' at times. However, I do suppose if the GFS is correct with 850s -9c and 518-520 thickness that anyone could see slushy accumulations if there is moisture. If anyone below 500' wants any shot at snow they had better root for the GFS/ECMWF big time. If the GEM is right no one is getting snow. Of course there is in my back of my mind how the February 2014 blast all of a sudden appeared I believe 3 days before it happened. Models just suddenly did a total 180 when we were pretty certain that nothing but crap was headed our way. That has certainly happened more than once in the past, but let's be real, odds are lower than a Portland's Resistance members IQ of us seeing a massive, dramatic shift in our favor. Onto 18z!!!! 22 minutes

[Gradient Keeper]

From a reliable source: 12z EPS control run again with the follow up deep West Coast trough.

[TT-SEA]

From a reliable source: 12z EPS control run again with the follow up deep West Coast trough.

 

 

Confirmed.   I am looking at it now.  

[Gradient Keeper]

Confirmed.   I am looking at it now.  

How promising is it? Is the block looking solid?

[TT-SEA]

How promising is it? Is the block looking solid?

 

 

What day do you want to see?

[stuffradio]

SW BC, WA, OR and NE CA are now under the 60% chance of below normal temps for 6-10 day period and above normal precip. The 8-14 day period still has almost 50% chance of below normal temps and above normal precip too.

[Deweydog]

What day do you want to see?

 

2-2-1989.  

[Deweydog]

The 18z is running.

 

Block and load!!!

[Gradient Keeper]

What day do you want to see?

Any I guess, of if you want to give a brief summary....

[Timmy]

From a reliable source: 12z EPS control run again with the follow up deep West Coast trough.

what is the EPS?

[Phil]

12z ECMWF ensemble mean looks like 1983. Frigid across the nation, with the heart of the Arctic air centered over the Intermountain West and Plains states.

[Timmy]

12z ECMWF ensemble mean looks like 1983. Frigid across the nation, with the heart of the Arctic air centered over the Intermountain West and Plains states.

did our area do good that year?

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 3 18z shows offshore ridge is suppressing a bit faster and not shoved inland as far as 12z, and thus the trough is digging better. This MIGHT be good.

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2016112918/072/500h_anom.na.png

[SilverFallsAndrew]

did our area do good that year?

 

YES.

 

Portland

https://climate.usurf.usu.edu/reports/e15daily.php?stn=USW00024229&year=1983&month=12&unit=EN&network=direct:ghcn&sidebar=0

 

Salem

https://climate.usurf.usu.edu/reports/e15daily.php?stn=USW00024232&year=1983&month=12&unit=EN&network=direct:ghcn&sidebar=0

 

Eugene

https://climate.usurf.usu.edu/reports/e15daily.php?stn=USW00024221&year=1983&month=12&unit=EN&network=direct:ghcn&sidebar=0

 

Olympia

https://climate.usurf.usu.edu/reports/e15daily.php?stn=USW00024227&year=1983&month=12&unit=EN&network=direct:ghcn&sidebar=0

[Phil]

did our area do good that year?

Significant Arctic blast in mid/late December that year. Here's the 12z ECMWF mean for days 5-10 and 10-15. The mean is cooler than average through the entire two week period and beyond.

 

Days 5-10:

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/F6D709EF-5641-4EB2-B303-F21137D26E04_zpsqmydrgnx.png

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/BD6C2D76-8A84-49B2-B4BF-7964A5122435_zps9o7sqkgh.png

 

Here's days 10-15:

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/B8B465A6-DA29-4FD8-99BD-BB25327EB149_zpsile5klel.png

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/2BED6FA2-6BE4-4C96-B651-4D408DC72640_zpswp2n59bx.png

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 4

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2016112918/096/500h_anom.na.png