November 2016 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[MossMan]

Already down into 30s tonight.

Sitting at 40 here.

[Front Ranger]

It's the average coldest, not absolute coldest.

 

Correct.

[BLI snowman]

Dec was especially mild in the 1800s, Jan and Feb were generally colder when considering the coldest low of the month

 

Dec 1874 31 deg coldest low

1875: 33

1877: 35

1882: 31

1886: 30

1888: 31

1895: 30

 

Lots of Dec with 27-29 too.

 

Only two that went below 20:

 

Dec 1879: 3

Dec 1884: 12

We had a slew of impressive December arctic events from 1870 to 1873, though. Four consecutive years with arctic outbreaks during that month.

 

These things go in cycles. December was largely solid from 1852 to 1873, mediocre from 1874 to 1915, good from 1916 to 1932, mediocre from 1933 to 1960, and has been largely good again from 1961 to present in terms of its role in our average winter.

[Perturbed Member]

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/wrfrt/data/2016113000/images_d2/or_snow24.144.0000.gif

 

WRF Monday. 

[BLI snowman]

Sorry, compared to PDX's JAN average "extreme" low. Our average low bottoms out at ~ 22.5 degrees in mid/late JAN.

Okay, but that is not colder than our extreme lowest 21st century temp in January. PDX got down to 18 and downtown Portland hit 15 in January 2004.

[Phil]

Your climate is so much better than ours!

Only during the cold season.

 

This place is absolute hell from May through September.

[IbrChris]

Last time Portland saw a high of ___.

32: Jan 2016
23: Feb 2014
19: Dec 1990
15: Feb 1989
14: Dec 1968
13: Jan 1909
10: Jan 1888
9: Jan 1888

 

Last time Portland saw a low of ___.

32: Feb 2016
28: Jan 2016
24: Nov 2015
21: Dec 2014
19: Feb 2014
12: Dec 2013
11: Dec 1998
9: Feb 1989
8: Dec 1972
6: Dec 1964
-3: Feb 1950

-10: Jan 1862 apocryphal
 

[MossMan]

I need it to snow enough on Monday that it prevents me from having to go to the wife's company Christmas party in Seattle.

[Phil]

Okay, but that is not colder than our extreme lowest 21st century temp in January. PDX got down to 18 and downtown Portland hit 15 in January 2004.

**Average coldest**. Not absolute coldest.

[snow_wizard]

Looks to me like a legit snow threat Sunday morning for Seattle. I think the WRF shifts the winds to northerly too quickly for area south of Seattle (a common fault with that model). There will likely be a period of convergence.

[BLI snowman]

I need it to snow enough on Monday that it prevents me from having to go to the wife's company Christmas party in Seattle.

They are twenty days early. Sad that no one respects the calendar anymore, including the winter weather gods.

[HighlandExperience]

I don't like how dry northern areas look. Of course this will change. Basically Vancouver BC to Olympia gets screwed.

[Heavy Snow]

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/wrfrt/data/2016113000/images_d2/or_snow24.144.0000.gif

 

WRF Monday.

That looks nice. I can see this happening, more snow on the west side due to the Forest Grove effect and also Gorge.

[Gradient Keeper]

00z ECMWF Day 3

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ecmwf/2016113000/072/500h_anom.na.png

[IbrChris]

**Average coldest**. Not absolute coldest.

"Average coldest" is actually a pretty useful statistic that is overlooked a lot.

[MossMan]

They are twenty days early. Sad that no one respects the calendar anymore, including the winter weather gods.

I agree 100%.

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 4 - Block kinda weak

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ecmwf/2016113000/096/500h_anom.na.png

[Phil]

"Average coldest" is actually a pretty useful statistic that is overlooked a lot.

Did you calculate these average yourself from NCDC? Or is there a more convenient aggregate of data somewhere?

 

I want to calculate IAD's average. I assume it's in the single digits but am not sure what the exact number is.

[MossMan]

I don't like how dry northern areas look. Of course this will change. Basically Vancouver BC to Olympia gets screwed.

I remember in 2008 the models really struggled with precip amounts and never really accurately showed my area getting so much accumulation day after day. Lots of last second winter storm warnings being issued about every other day. Convergence was my friend!

[Gradient Keeper]

Energy off Siberia stronger

[IbrChris]

Did you calculate these average yourself from NCDC? Or is there a more convenient aggregate of data somewhere?

 

I want to calculate IAD's average. I assume it's in the single digits but am not sure what the exact number is.

I just grab the HiMax/LoMax/HiMin/LoMin for each month from 1981-2010. It's pretty easy to do with the Now Data on the NWS Climate pages. Just copy the table and paste into Excel and use an averaging formula. Shouldn't take more than 10 mins.

 

Took more work for Portland because the pre-PDX data isn't "threaded" with the PDX data in NowData. Granted for 1981-2010 only I didn't need the pre-PDX data.

[Front Ranger]

Day 4 - Block kinda weak

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ecmwf/2016113000/096/500h_anom.na.png

 

Weaker and less amplified than GFS. Boo.

[Perturbed Member]

That looks nice. I can see this happening, more snow on the west side due to the Forest Grove effect and also Gorge.

Yeah I think it is possible but I pretty much look at that as the best case scenario for Monday.

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 5 - Nope

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ecmwf/2016113000/120/500h_anom.na.png

[Phil]

I just grab the HiMax/LoMax/HiMin/LoMin for each month from 1981-2010. It's pretty easy to do with the Now Data on the NWS Climate pages. Just copy the table and paste into Excel and use an averaging formula. Shouldn't take more than 10 mins.

Thanks a bunch.

[liquidsnow]

Me looking at the Euro:

 

[Phil]

Euro jumped over 100 miles east with that cutoff low in the SW.

 

Still a prolific bias for that model at times.

[Front Ranger]

Yeah, Euro looking considerably worse than GFS. Too bad.

[MossMan]

Yeah, Euro looking considerably worse than GFS. Too bad.

We still have January!

[Deweydog]

Yeah, Euro looking considerably worse than GFS. Too bad.

Stronger block equals too much high pressure.

[luvssnow_spokane]

Just about the perfect time for everything to start the downhill trend... right on schedule

[Gradient Keeper]

Once again 00z runs all featured different 500mb progression and handling of the pattern. We're no closer to model agreement. Perhaps tomorrow. Of course the 00z EPS might look fabulous too.

[MossMan]

[Front Ranger]

Stronger block equals too much high pressure.

 

The block is folding under the pressure?

[IbrChris]

Day 5 - Nope

 

Typical low snow level NW flow. Cold in the Basin and Rockies.

[Perturbed Member]

It was fun while it lasted and I just started posting again. Time to go back into hiding. 

[Phil]

Fred hacked the Euro.

[MossMan]

Once again 00z runs all featured different 500mb progression and handling of the pattern. We're no closer to model agreement. Perhaps tomorrow. Of course the 00z EPS might look fabulous too.

Tomorrow's 00z runs will start to really tell us like you have been mentioning.

[Deweydog]

This is horrible.

 

Makes January 2005 seem like a cotton candy and free UHD TV party.

[Deweydog]

The block is folding under the pressure?

Offended by the fact it was repeatedly referred to as a warning shot.