November 2016 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[Deweydog]

Zzzzzzz

Hmmmm... A new, vague acronym. I'm intrigued.

[luvssnow_spokane]

Zzzzzzz

Very helpful, thanks!  

[snow_wizard]

Enjoy it while it lasts, because this "warning shot" may be our "only shot"!

I highly doubt it. This is all part of the plan.

[stuffradio]

18Z now looks like a snow event for me Sunday night into Monday, maybe some slush for Vancouver BC. Either way, looks like a decent warning shot if we get many more events the rest of the winter.

[snow_wizard]

Oh God...

 

Now that looks like lots of fun!

[MossMan]

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016112818/gfs_asnow_nwus_36.png

Looks great over my house!!

[crf450ish]

Pics for the less fortunate?

I didn't snap any, sorry. I will try to take a few when it snows again in a few days.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Looking at the ensembles there are about 1/4 of the members that want to speed up the timing even more...Lots of spread in the long range

[Gradient Keeper]

12z EPS: Encouraging to see how many cold to frigid ensembles members. A lot more than previous runs. This isn't over yet, although I'd lean towards any chances of appreciable "cold air" and threats of low land snows occurring days 7-11.

 

[ Model Countdown ]

Next up....

*00z GFS in 3 hours 27 minutes

00z GEM in 4 hours 27 minutes

00z ECMWF in 5 hours 44 minutes

[Guest Winterdog]

Looks great over my house!!

Hmmm. Looks like we are getting close to the "red zone" there!

[MossMan]

Hmmm. Looks like we are getting close to the "red zone" there!

Indeed! Going to be a fun week of tracking!

[snow_wizard]

Looks like the ensemble is settling on a solution now. Cold enough for snow and decently chilly for a few days.

[snow_wizard]

The ECMWF weeklies are actually pretty good. The control model shows us colder than a brass witch's t i t from Christmas through early January while the mean indicates above normal heights over the GOA / Aleutians for much of the first half of January. Something that has been very hard to come by the past 30+ years.

[Bryant]

Clicking through all the models, the NAVGEM would sure be a thing of beauty for northern Washington

[liquidsnow]

^Blizzard? 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

A say still a couple weeks out for anything big.

[snow_wizard]

Clicking through all the models, the NAVGEM would sure be a thing of beauty for northern Washington

About as much chance to be struck by lightning as having a low that strong track over SW WA in this case.

[snow_wizard]

A say still a couple weeks out for anything big.

Certainly a realistic shot at something white next week though.

[crf450ish]

About as much chance to be struck by lightning as having a low that strong track over SW WA in this case.

But if it did, what would it be comparable to? Honestly. Analog wise. 

[crf450ish]

Today was pretty surreal in my book. Walked the kids to the bus stop at 7am, dense fog and a one inch layer of snow on the ground @ 30 degrees, just enough snow to not be able to see the grass yet able to make the pine tree limbs sag. Fog didn't flush out till around noon or so and when it did, the sky was bright blue and sunny and boy did the temp jump up fast. Jumped from about 33ish to 40 within an hour and the snow melted pretty quick. Still have some patches around in shaded areas. Everything melted and slid off the roof of house and shop. And then as soon as the sun went down the fog didn't waste anytime at all returning. Clouds came out of nowhere and the only stitch of sunshine that was visible was that on the horizon looking south west (towards the tri-cities from my locale). I really need to buy my wife an expensive camera to capture these moments. 

 

Tyler Mode....any suggestions on cameras?

[westcoastexpat]

About as much chance to be struck by lightning as having a low that strong track over SW WA in this case.

[Gradient Keeper]

...and the 12z CFS leads the way. Lol

 

Day 8

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/cfs/2016112812/192/500h_anom.conus.png

 

Day 9

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/cfs/2016112812/216/850th.conus.png

[snow_wizard]

 

[Weather101]

I highly doubt it. This is all part of the plan.

Mother Nature has no plan.

[Front Ranger]

The station of the gods is officially out of the running for warmest November on record.

[Weather101]

The station of the gods is officially out of the running for warmest November on record.

Warning shot

[snow_wizard]

Mother Nature has no plan.

 

You're too confined in your thinking on this stuff.

[crf450ish]

The meme matches the emoji you posted 

[snow_wizard]

Seeing some good indications for cold later in December and into January on various models now.

[van city]

Seeing some good indications for cold later in December and into January on various models now.

In Jim we trust! I hope you are right.

[Weather101]

You're too confined in your thinking on this stuff.

So... The cold air must be thinking " oh we will hit them for sure later" there's no guarantee of anything so no I'm not.. I want snow and cold but I'm not going to get everyone's hopes up. Mother Nature does what she wants.

[Trainwreck]

Seeing some good indications for cold later in December and into January on various models now.

Jim, it's four weeks away. No one can see that far unless you're joe Pesci in casino.

[Deweydog]

The station of the gods is officially out of the running for warmest November on record.

Only took 28 days to do it!

[Bryant]

Jim, it's four weeks away. No one can see that far unless you're joe Pesci in casino.

I was discussing this time frame for cold a month ago

[Timmy]

I was discussing this time frame for cold a month ago

I was a year ago...

[Gradient Keeper]

The 12z, 18z GFS after studying things further were actually much closer to an Arctic blast than I realized. As the ridge is being pushed from 155 W to 145 W we basically only need that process to slow down, or for the ridge to "stand up" around 145-140 W for only 24 hours that would allow the arctic trough to dig more efficiently southward for at least a backdoor blast via the Gorge. That's ALL we need to see on future runs. Given the progressive nature of the pattern on the 12z GFS/ECMWF that might be hard to ask for. The GEM featured less of a progressive pattern and a more realistic chance of arctic air as did many of the 12z EPS members.

 

00z GFS in 58 minutes!!!!

[Front Ranger]

Only took 28 days to do it!

 

Actually dipped below the record point a couple days ago.

 

Regardless, those that were fearing 1949-50 might lose its place in the history books as the warmest November/coldest January combo can breathe deep sigh of relief.

[Front Ranger]

The 12z, 18z GFS after studying things further were actually much closer to an Arctic blast than I realized. As the ridge is being pushed from 155 W to 145 W we basically only need that process to slow down, or for the ridge to "stand up" around 145-140 W for only 24 hours that would allow the arctic trough to dig more efficiently southward for at least a backdoor blast via the Gorge. That's ALL we need to see on future runs. Given the progressive nature of the pattern on the 12z GFS/ECMWF that might be hard to ask for. The GEM featured less of a progressive pattern and a more realistic chance of arctic air as did many of the 12z EPS members.

 

00z GFS in 58 minutes!!!!

 

Things are looking up.

 

 

[Gradient Keeper]

Things are looking up.

 

c640x360_25.jpg

Lol

[Heavy Snow]

Only 10 days away!!!!

Timing has moved up. Almost all models are showing a modified Arctic Blast with Snow.