Money Posted December 12, 2016 Report Share Posted December 12, 2016 Some images: http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2016121200/138/prateptype_cat.conus.png Total snowfall: http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2016121200/144/snku_acc.us_mw.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted December 12, 2016 Report Share Posted December 12, 2016 00z GFS...similar to the 18z GFS but a tad north... WAA snows look pretty good also. Snows for over 30 hours here. This is before the system really even develops: http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2016121200/132/snku_024h.us_mw.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted December 12, 2016 Report Share Posted December 12, 2016 Some nasty freezing rain: Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 12, 2016 Author Report Share Posted December 12, 2016 If that storm can just track a little more south and cover our NE/IA/KC posters, it would turn out to be a phenomenal storm. Last couple runs it's been going west/east instead of cutting to far north. Hope it's a trend. That arctic HP could do some serious Lehs if the right wind direction sets up just right. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 12, 2016 Author Report Share Posted December 12, 2016 That track sorta reminds me of the GHD II Blitz '15... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted December 12, 2016 Report Share Posted December 12, 2016 GEM: http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2016121200/gem_mslpa_us_21.png http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2016121200/gem_mslpa_us_23.png http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2016121200/gem_mslpa_us_24.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted December 12, 2016 Report Share Posted December 12, 2016 Not a great run there, but looks like some decent WAA snows here before that. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted December 12, 2016 Report Share Posted December 12, 2016 GEM looks like it's faster than the GFS which allows it to cut farther north before the HP settles in. GFS digs it a little bit. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted December 12, 2016 Report Share Posted December 12, 2016 GEM looks like it's faster than the GFS which allows it to cut farther north before the HP settles in. GFS digs it a little bit. That's pretty much it. The speed/placement of that HP up north is going to be yuggge. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterfreak Posted December 12, 2016 Report Share Posted December 12, 2016 This one has no chance to produce snow down here with the +AO and poor placement of the HP. I have already come to terms with that. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted December 12, 2016 Report Share Posted December 12, 2016 GEM: http://maps3.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ggem/2016121200/144/snku_acc.us_mw.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted December 12, 2016 Report Share Posted December 12, 2016 FYI: GGEM Ensembles look much more like the GFS than the GGEM OP: HR 132: http://weather.gc.ca/data/ensemble/images/2016121200_054_E1_north@america_I_ENSEMBLE_pnm@moy_132.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted December 12, 2016 Report Share Posted December 12, 2016 Yeah officially sucks Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted December 12, 2016 Report Share Posted December 12, 2016 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted December 12, 2016 Report Share Posted December 12, 2016 Euro looks like GFS HR 120: http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ecmwf/2016121200/120/sfcmslp.conus.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted December 12, 2016 Report Share Posted December 12, 2016 High wins out on EUro Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted December 12, 2016 Report Share Posted December 12, 2016 Yup. It was similar to the GFS until about HR 120. Looks like .6-.8 QPF from eastern MN into eastern/southern WI Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted December 12, 2016 Report Share Posted December 12, 2016 gosaints area actually gets more QPF on the Euro than the GFS (.7 on Euro compared to .5 on GFS) Anyone have the snow map with ratios for Euro? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted December 12, 2016 Report Share Posted December 12, 2016 gosaints area actually gets more QPF on the Euro than the GFS (.7 on Euro compared to .5 on GFS) Anyone have the snow map with ratios for Euro?I will once Accu loads 1 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted December 12, 2016 Report Share Posted December 12, 2016 Slightly south from the last Euro run, but very similar run Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted December 12, 2016 Report Share Posted December 12, 2016 QPF for C.IA nearly doubled--- from around .15 to around .30"very high ratios in MN (anywhere really in the heavier QPF area) Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted December 12, 2016 Report Share Posted December 12, 2016 A big difference between the GFS and Euro is the location of that original snowband... what I'm assuming in a WAA snow. GFS brings up further south into Iowa; Euro takes it further north. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted December 12, 2016 Report Share Posted December 12, 2016 QPF for C.IA nearly doubled--- from around .15 to around .30"very high ratios in MN (anywhere really in the heavier QPF area) Seems like whoever gets in the WAA band could see some very good snows. GFS was painting 12-14 inches of snow on .5 QPF in some spots in Minnesota/Iowa/WI Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted December 12, 2016 Report Share Posted December 12, 2016 Seems like whoever gets in the WAA band could see some very good snows.Yeah that band looks like it could potentially be the biggest snow producer in this system. Get them both and you're having a great storm. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted December 12, 2016 Report Share Posted December 12, 2016 MSP-FRI 06Z 16-DEC -15.6 -13.0 1026 72 92 0.01 540 520 FRI 12Z 16-DEC -12.4 -11.8 1018 81 100 0.13 539 526 FRI 18Z 16-DEC -10.2 -13.0 1012 82 99 0.20 539 530 SAT 00Z 17-DEC -9.9 -13.8 1010 86 92 0.12 538 530 SAT 06Z 17-DEC -12.8 -14.8 1015 84 61 0.01 535 523DSM-FRI 06Z 16-DEC -6.4 -8.8 1024 37 87 0.02 553 534 FRI 12Z 16-DEC -5.0 -6.2 1014 44 48 0.01 553 542 FRI 18Z 16-DEC -1.5 -2.3 1006 50 46 0.02 552 547 SAT 00Z 17-DEC -1.2 -1.7 1003 75 54 0.04 550 548 SAT 06Z 17-DEC -3.4 -6.2 1008 85 87 0.05 548 542 SAT 12Z 17-DEC -9.4 -12.4 1018 73 97 0.13 547 533 SAT 18Z 17-DEC -13.1 -13.4 1025 64 92 0.01 544 525 SUN 00Z 18-DEC -17.7 -15.4 1028 67 81 0.05 542 521 OMA-FRI 00Z 16-DEC -5.3 -9.4 1026 36 81 0.01 555 534 FRI 06Z 16-DEC -4.7 -9.0 1019 34 44 0.00 555 540 FRI 12Z 16-DEC -1.8 -3.7 1008 55 30 0.01 554 548 FRI 18Z 16-DEC 1.7 -0.5 1002 71 50 0.01 552 551 SAT 00Z 17-DEC 0.2 -3.8 1002 90 72 0.01 550 548 SAT 06Z 17-DEC -6.4 -9.9 1013 75 98 0.09 548 538 SAT 12Z 17-DEC -10.5 -14.6 1022 65 97 0.08 546 529 SAT 18Z 17-DEC -13.7 -15.6 1028 50 88 0.02 543 522 SUN 00Z 18-DEC -15.5 -16.9 1029 60 74 0.05 541 519DBQ-FRI 18Z 16-DEC -8.0 -9.3 1013 73 80 0.08 549 539 SAT 00Z 17-DEC -6.5 -5.6 1008 81 77 0.06 548 542 SAT 06Z 17-DEC -6.2 -7.3 1007 90 96 0.07 546 540 SAT 12Z 17-DEC -8.5 -10.4 1013 82 95 0.13 545 535 SAT 18Z 17-DEC -9.1 -12.4 1018 70 76 0.01 544 530 SUN 00Z 18-DEC -12.5 -14.4 1024 68 75 0.02 541 523 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted December 12, 2016 Report Share Posted December 12, 2016 MSP-FRI 06Z 16-DEC -15.6 -13.0 1026 72 92 0.01 540 520 FRI 12Z 16-DEC -12.4 -11.8 1018 81 100 0.13 539 526 FRI 18Z 16-DEC -10.2 -13.0 1012 82 99 0.20 539 530 SAT 00Z 17-DEC -9.9 -13.8 1010 86 92 0.12 538 530 SAT 06Z 17-DEC -12.8 -14.8 1015 84 61 0.01 535 523DSM-FRI 06Z 16-DEC -6.4 -8.8 1024 37 87 0.02 553 534 FRI 12Z 16-DEC -5.0 -6.2 1014 44 48 0.01 553 542 FRI 18Z 16-DEC -1.5 -2.3 1006 50 46 0.02 552 547 SAT 00Z 17-DEC -1.2 -1.7 1003 75 54 0.04 550 548 SAT 06Z 17-DEC -3.4 -6.2 1008 85 87 0.05 548 542 SAT 12Z 17-DEC -9.4 -12.4 1018 73 97 0.13 547 533 SAT 18Z 17-DEC -13.1 -13.4 1025 64 92 0.01 544 525 SUN 00Z 18-DEC -17.7 -15.4 1028 67 81 0.05 542 521 OMA-FRI 00Z 16-DEC -5.3 -9.4 1026 36 81 0.01 555 534 FRI 06Z 16-DEC -4.7 -9.0 1019 34 44 0.00 555 540 FRI 12Z 16-DEC -1.8 -3.7 1008 55 30 0.01 554 548 FRI 18Z 16-DEC 1.7 -0.5 1002 71 50 0.01 552 551 SAT 00Z 17-DEC 0.2 -3.8 1002 90 72 0.01 550 548 SAT 06Z 17-DEC -6.4 -9.9 1013 75 98 0.09 548 538 SAT 12Z 17-DEC -10.5 -14.6 1022 65 97 0.08 546 529 SAT 18Z 17-DEC -13.7 -15.6 1028 50 88 0.02 543 522 SUN 00Z 18-DEC -15.5 -16.9 1029 60 74 0.05 541 519DBQ-FRI 18Z 16-DEC -8.0 -9.3 1013 73 80 0.08 549 539 SAT 00Z 17-DEC -6.5 -5.6 1008 81 77 0.06 548 542 SAT 06Z 17-DEC -6.2 -7.3 1007 90 96 0.07 546 540 SAT 12Z 17-DEC -8.5 -10.4 1013 82 95 0.13 545 535 SAT 18Z 17-DEC -9.1 -12.4 1018 70 76 0.01 544 530 SUN 00Z 18-DEC -12.5 -14.4 1024 68 75 0.02 541 523 OSH? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted December 12, 2016 Report Share Posted December 12, 2016 MSN-FRI 12Z 16-DEC -13.4 -13.3 1025 72 98 0.04 544 525 FRI 18Z 16-DEC -9.8 -11.1 1016 77 99 0.14 546 534 SAT 00Z 17-DEC -8.0 -8.6 1010 82 95 0.15 546 538 SAT 06Z 17-DEC -7.5 -9.1 1008 90 100 0.12 544 538 SAT 12Z 17-DEC -9.0 -11.1 1012 83 89 0.12 542 533 SAT 18Z 17-DEC -8.6 -13.4 1017 70 57 0.00 542 529 SUN 00Z 18-DEC -11.2 -15.3 1023 74 53 0.01 539 522RST-FRI 06Z 16-DEC -15.1 -12.4 1027 69 100 0.01 543 522 FRI 12Z 16-DEC -11.7 -11.3 1018 78 99 0.12 543 529 FRI 18Z 16-DEC -9.6 -12.3 1012 82 95 0.20 543 534 SAT 00Z 17-DEC -8.9 -9.7 1008 88 98 0.29 542 536 SAT 06Z 17-DEC -10.4 -13.0 1013 88 75 0.10 539 529 SAT 12Z 17-DEC -13.8 -15.1 1019 81 45 0.01 537 523 ORD-FRI 12Z 16-DEC -11.0 -13.6 1027 76 100 0.01 547 527 FRI 18Z 16-DEC -8.1 -9.3 1019 73 99 0.06 550 536 SAT 00Z 17-DEC -5.7 -7.2 1011 76 100 0.06 550 541 SAT 06Z 17-DEC -3.4 -3.7 1006 91 88 0.07 549 544 SAT 12Z 17-DEC -4.5 -4.3 1008 87 97 0.21 548 541 SAT 18Z 17-DEC -5.4 -7.9 1013 67 97 0.02 548 538 SUN 00Z 18-DEC -5.9 -11.1 1018 75 96 0.03 546 532 SUN 06Z 18-DEC -8.9 -13.5 1023 74 89 0.01 544 527 SUN 12Z 18-DEC -13.0 -15.5 1030 75 86 0.02 539 516 SUN 18Z 18-DEC -12.0 -17.2 1033 58 18 0.01 542 518 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted December 12, 2016 Report Share Posted December 12, 2016 OSH-FRI 12Z 16-DEC -11.0 -16.0 1027 79 100 0.02 542 522 FRI 18Z 16-DEC -8.8 -11.6 1019 76 98 0.08 544 530 SAT 00Z 17-DEC -7.6 -11.0 1010 82 99 0.24 542 534 SAT 06Z 17-DEC -6.2 -8.2 1004 84 98 0.20 540 537 SAT 12Z 17-DEC -5.9 -8.4 1002 89 100 0.06 538 537 SAT 18Z 17-DEC -6.7 -12.6 1006 78 99 0.09 536 532 SUN 00Z 18-DEC -6.9 -15.9 1012 75 80 0.01 532 522 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted December 12, 2016 Report Share Posted December 12, 2016 Remember this map is strictly 10:1 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted December 12, 2016 Report Share Posted December 12, 2016 Anyone have a 6z GFS snowfall map? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted December 12, 2016 Report Share Posted December 12, 2016 http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2016121206/162/snku_acc.us_mw.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted December 12, 2016 Report Share Posted December 12, 2016 Thanks.Just read DMX afd. They are going with light to moderate snowfall as of right now.Also mentions possibly above normal temps next week. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted December 12, 2016 Report Share Posted December 12, 2016 Thanks.Just read DMX afd. They are going with light to moderate snowfall as of right now.Also mentions possibly above normal temps next week.I understand there caution. Very progressive flow in place. If the growth zone plays ball with this one some places could see some real fluff Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted December 12, 2016 Report Share Posted December 12, 2016 MSP discussion below. They say only minor shifts expected! Ya right. Famous last words... After Thursday, attention turns to an upper low that is currentlyoff the BC/Alaska coast. This wave will slowly sag south throughWednesday, but as the upper low near Hudson Bay begins to fill andlift into eastern Canada, this wave will start working out acrossthe CONUS. This wave will come across the CONUS with a positive tiltand will be interacting a northern stream wave and associated arcticair as well. The Canadian/ECMWF/GFS remain in good agreement on astrong WAA band of precip working into southern/central MN Thursdaynight and transitioning into a more deformation precip band as weget some interaction between the northern and southern streams. Themain area of disagreement is with how quickly the arctic air worksback into the area. The slowest is the Canadian and has the precipfarthest NW, while the ECMWF is the fastest and has its heaviestprecip farther southeast. However, these differences only result inthe Canadian having its heaviest QPF swath across central MN and WIwith the ECMWF having it from SE MN into SE WI. For several runs nowthe models have been showing this heavy snow setup and confidence iscertainly increasing that we will likely see a large part of ourarea see 6+ inches of snow, with amounts likely not too dissimilar towhat we just saw over this past weekend. If we are to see shifts inthe coming days, they will likely be fairly minor and shifting tothe south (stronger arctic air push). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 12, 2016 Author Report Share Posted December 12, 2016 00z GFS Para...nearly identical to what happened with this past weekends system. http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfsp/2016121200/gfsp_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_21.png http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfsp/2016121200/gfsp_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_23.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted December 12, 2016 Report Share Posted December 12, 2016 00z GFS Para...nearly identical to what happened with this past weekends system. http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfsp/2016121200/gfsp_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_21.png http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfsp/2016121200/gfsp_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_23.pngIt seems at though the vortex is going to be the saving grace even around here. If it wasnt around I think this thing would cut hard. Nothing wrong with spreading more wealth Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 12, 2016 Author Report Share Posted December 12, 2016 Here is an extended view of the overnight 00z EURO... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted December 12, 2016 Report Share Posted December 12, 2016 Models seem to speeding up this system. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted December 12, 2016 Report Share Posted December 12, 2016 GFS much weaker on the west coast Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 12, 2016 Author Report Share Posted December 12, 2016 GFS much weaker on the west coastLarger and juicer WAA snows over spreading out ahead of the system on Friday... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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