12/16 - 12/18 Plains/Lakes Major Winter Storm

[Tom]

A little more pressing from the HP on the 12z Euro run through 12z Fri...system a tad slower to eject also it seems...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2016121212/ecmwf_T850_us_5.png

 

 

Yesterday's 12z...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2016121112/ecmwf_T850_us_6.png

[gosaints]

Not sure what the EURO shows for waa snows but looks like it might get squashed

[Tom]

12z Euro...a touch south??

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2016121212/ecmwf_T850_us_6.png

[Tom]

That secondary wave hanging back may be a surprise snow for folks farther south who don't get the WAA snows...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2016121212/ecmwf_mslpa_us_6.png

 

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2016121212/ecmwf_z500a_us_6.png

 

[gosaints]

12z Euro...a touch south??

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2016121212/ecmwf_T850_us_6.png

For sure... Should be another good battle between the 2 

[OKwx2k4]

For sure... Should be another good battle between the 2

If it can turn the corner there and strengthen, could be pretty interesting.

[CentralNebWeather]

For sure... Should be another good battle between the

 

That secondary wave hanging back may be a surprise snow for folks farther south who don't get the WAA snows...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2016121212/ecmwf_mslpa_us_6.png

 

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2016121212/ecmwf_z500a_us_6.png

I might like this solution.  As long as the secondary wave doesn't go to far south.  We will see.  

[gosaints]

If it can turn the corner there and strengthen, could be pretty interesting.

As model the high to the north probably overwhelms it

[GDR]

It's a good time to throw the towel in for southern ia

[CentralNebWeather]

For sure... Should be another good battle between the 2 

It would be interesting what the snowfall map looks like with the low in this location.  Does it race northeastward or get squashed as gosaints mentioned?  

[CentralNebWeather]

As always, if someone can post the euro snowfall map it is much appreciated.  Thanks

[winterfreak]

Looks like it gets squashed.

[Andrew NE]

Its no Bueno!

[james1976]

It's a good time to throw the towel in for southern ia

Lol

[bud2380]

Chicago does fairly well in the euro. This is another 1-2 punch type system. About .15" in the first batch of overrunning snows then .35" as the low passes to the south. Cold temps during that .35" too could pile up.

[Andrew NE]

Through hr 156

[bud2380]

As always, if someone can post the euro snowfall map it is much appreciated.  Thanks

I don't have a map yet but .12" for Holdredge

[winterfreak]

EURO a no go around this way. Nice for the Lakes again.

[CentralNebWeather]

I don't have a map yet but .12" for Holdredge

Thanks for the information.  Hoping for a little more.  With the low in that location we usually do really well unless it really gets pushed south.

[OKwx2k4]

Euro, stronger HP and colder. Not used to that out of the Euro. Normally warms as it goes.

[jaster220]

Looks like the low tracks from Colorado Springs to Kansas City to western Illinois on the GFS.  Just a little farther south and I think we get something (not a lot, but at this point a few inches would be appreciated.)

 

Would you have a surf map of that? thx

[Snowshoe]

I would take it

 

Count me in on the action!

[NEJeremy]

I wonder if Jim is going to start adjusting his seasonal outlook of 40" for Omaha yet. Last week he said he was staying put for now.

[Tom]

12z GEPS...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem-ens/2016121200/gem-ememb_lowlocs_us_21.png

 

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem-ens/2016121200/gem-ememb_lowlocs_us_23.png

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem-ens/2016121200/gem-ememb_lowlocs_us_25.png

 

 

 

Seems to dig this storm a little more than the GEFS....

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem-ens/2016121200/gem-ens_mslpa_us_23.png

[Andrew NE]

I wonder if Jim is going to start adjusting his seasonal outlook of 40" for Omaha yet. Last week he said he was staying put for now.

I was just thinking the same thing watching models come in this morning, definitely still real early in the season, but I think he was banking on us getting in on the last couple storms that went to the north.  Then again it was just last Friday that he did that video that he was holding his ground.  I haven't heard him talk about any 30 day cycles that he has always been big about?

[Grizzcoat]

50's in Central NE with single digits in SW MN,,,,, that should say enough with the snow pack in effect. Areas S of I-90 are screwed for snow with the late week system I hate to say it...

[GDR]

50's in Central NE with single digits in SW MN,,,,, that should say enough with the snow pack in effect. Areas S of I-90 are screwed for snow with the late week system I hate to say it...

i hear ya, what a December to forget!!

[NEJeremy]

I was just thinking the same thing watching models come in this morning, definitely still real early in the season, but I think he was banking on us getting in on the last couple storms that went to the north.  Then again it was just last Friday that he did that video that he was holding his ground.  I haven't heard him talk about any 30 day cycles that he has always been big about?

I know he was really banking on a big December I believe, and then I think he said a slower middle of the season followed by a strong finish for snowfall. I don't believe he has really mentioned the cycles yet this year though...

[Money]

Euro GGEM and GFS with all 8+ here and all have dif solutions for the most part

[CentralNebWeather]

Jim is now retired (I think) from his TV meteorologist job in Omaha and  has a job at Bass Pro Shops in Council Bluffs.  He still posts videos (less frequently when he was on TV) and maps, charts etc. on his facebook page.  Still a really funny guy, usually sings a song about the weather.  He has not mentioned yearly snowfall amounts recently, but I do believe that with several of these snow "misses" that we have had it will take a very strong Feb., March, and April to even remotely come close to 40 inches.  We don't usually get much in January around here unless it is northeast Nebraska and a clipper.

[CentralNebWeather]

 

50's in Central NE with single digits in SW MN,,,,, that should say enough with the snow pack in effect. Areas S of I-90 are screwed for snow with the late week system I hate to say it...

Right now sitting at 46 degrees and sunny skies.  The little bit of snow from last week is gone.  Brown grass is all we see.  So far a December to forget around this area.  

i hear ya, what a December to forget!!

[CentralNebWeather]

Even people I know that hate winter and snow, say they wish we could get something before Christmas.   I try to explain some of the reasons we have been missed,  and I told a couple people at lunch today that maybe Friday night or Saturday holds hope for a little bit but don't get your hopes up.  

[Tom]

12z EPS...its looking unlikely that we will see a wound up solution but more of a strong wave of energy along the very tight thermal boundary which has been the recent pattern of late.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf-ens/2016121212/ecmwf-ens_T850_mslp_us_5.png

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf-ens/2016121212/ecmwf-ens_T850_mslp_us_6.png

[Niko]

Well, well well.....so, whats next I see here. Snowstorm#2 for us Lakes people to track???!!! December is turning out to be a good, snowy month. 

 

A lot of posters on here will do good, since this storm seems to be larger in size. Only question is...how far south does it go? By Wednesday, models should have a better idea.

[jaster220]

Yeah it does look to be similar areas as this past storm

 

except I get my winds this time 

 

CPC really lovin' on mby with today's maps..red dot is mby. 

 

GRR suddenly "bullish" on system snow as well in their AFD (they do have one Met who's into winter  )

 

(if i controlled the wx, I'd gladly share with you NE & KS peeps!)

 

 

[Niko]

except I get my winds this time 

 

CPC really lovin' on mby with today's maps..red dot is mby. 

 

GRR suddenly "bullish" on system snow as well in their AFD (they do have one Met who's into winter  )

 

(if i controlled the wx, I'd gladly share with you NE & KS peeps!)

 

20161212 CPC 3-7day Hazards GLs.JPG

Jaster, I get dizzy reading this map. Does it show heavy snow and wind for me?

 

BTW...ECMWF shows an all snowevent with no mixing issues and we get buried. GFS and GEFS are a tad warmer and have the low ova MI, but, still get significant accumulations.

[Tom]

12z JMA kinda similar to the 12z Euro...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/jma/2016121212/jma_T850_us_5.png

 

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/jma/2016121212/jma_T850_us_6.png

[Tom]

Hold the fort! 18z GFS may be spreading the love...

[CentralNebWeather]

I am on my phone tom. I think you are right. Will look closer in a few. Did it come a little farther south?

[Money]

14-18 inches of snow from Chicago up into southern wi