12/16 - 12/18 Plains/Lakes Major Winter Storm

[Tom]

SD getting hit hard through Noon on Friday...

[Tom]

SD/MN/N IA/N IL/WI/N IN get some real nice WAA snows...

[Niko]

So far GEM and NAM are south, whereas GFS still has a a tad north.

[Jaycee]

GFS is north on 12z. Not a bad hit for Omaha, around 6". Southern Wisconsin gets leveled again.

[winterfreak]

Garbage GFS run yikes.

[Tom]

12z GFS..little less snow than 00z run.  Keeps it all snow along the "cheddar curtain" and points north...

 

Track is almost ideal to have it all snow for N IL...dang warm tongue...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016121312/gfs_T850_ncus_18.png

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016121312/gfs_mslp_pcpn_ncus_17.png

 

 

 

 

 

[GDR]

[GDR]

Backside falls apart

[Snowshoe]

Playing with the trend tool on Tropical Tidbits.If it works this should show the Low at 18z Saturday on the last 10 GFS runs.

[Money]

GGEM north and strong

 

995 in SW MI

[St Paul Storm]

Your towel definetly shouldnt be thrown

Definitely no towels being thrown by any means. I'll take 6" storms every weekend if that's the trend.

[Tom]

GGEM north and strong

 

995 in SW MI

Sounds like its similar to the 12z GFS?

[gosaints]

GGEM north and strong

 

995 in SW MI

Thats a moneyman special

[Money]

Yeah looks like it

 

Looks pretty wound up also

[Madtown]

How's the Ggem for Madison area...edge?

[NEJeremy]

GFS is north on 12z. Not a bad hit for Omaha, around 6". Southern Wisconsin gets leveled again.

it's a thin little strip on the back end unfortunately. I'm feeling this is going to be a northern track again. The WAA snows should fall north of us and from there it depends on what happens on the back end, but with the way the jet stream is screaming on by, these systems are just going to keep flying by as well I think. Everything's way too progressive.

[CentralNebWeather]

Well back north.  I don't even know what to say anymore.  

[jaster220]

It would be amazing if this winter panned out like 77-78 and 78-79. It was back to back memorable winters that I would hope someday I would be able to experience again. It seemed like it snowed every other day and we were always under winter storm watches. Back then the criteria was a little different but still credible. I lived in the city at the time and eventually there was soo much snow on the streets that they eventually ran out of room and had to bring in dump trucks to remove the snow from the streets and dump them into forest preserves and into the Chicago River. The forest preserves grew mountains overnight and boy you could imagine the fun everyone had with that.

 

Also, both years was a money maker for shoveling snow especially rooftops. The snow was so heavy that there was a major concern of roof collapses that most folks, especially apartment building owners with flat roofs, had us shoveling there rooftops. It was hard work but my friends and I were in it for the money so we shoveled roofs for weeks on end.

 

Side streets barely got touched because main streets came first and by the time they were ready for the side streets another storm would come. There was two paths(ruts)in the street where the cars would drive on so basicly you could take your hands off the wheel and the cars would just follow the path without you even touching the wheel. Cars were always double parked on the street because the alleys had so much snow on them no one could get to their garages. You could guarantee its not if your car would get smacked but when. My car got hit alot but it was a beater so I really did not care. Most folks had two sets of cars back then. One nice car during the summer months and one nasty car for the winter months so if it got smashed you really did not care.

 

I hope you guys get to experience that this coming winter beacuse I tell you it will be something you will never ever forget and the stories you will tell will bring a smile to every snow lovers face.

 

Good luck to all this winter!!

 

Awesome 1st hand account! 

[james1976]

GFS heading back to more realistic amounts

[jaster220]

Might mean zilcho, but today's little system is putting down some more snow cover well south. I know it's no glacier, but could be just enough to help us riding the edge to avoid a slop-fest mid day Saturday.  Seems to be over-performing with snows further south than originally expected.

 

 

[Money]

GGEM is .8-1.0 qpf for southern wi

[East Dubzz]

Anyone got a CMC map?

[Niko]

Might mean zilcho, but today's little system is putting down some more snow cover well south. I know it's no glacier, but could be just enough to help us riding the edge to avoid a slop-fest mid day Saturday.  Seems to be over-performing with snows further south than originally expected.

 

20161213 Radar 10am.JPG

D**n, close call. That would have been another great accumulating snowfall for SEMI. Near miss!!!!

[GDR]

Yup north trends here we come

[WBadgersW]

How's the Ggem for Madison area...edge?

You're golden on the GGEM. Only extreme SE Kenosha county might get a mix.

[Jaycee]

I'm on mobile but the GEM is an absolute monster for MPX and Central Wisconsin, right over Money's area. MPX get's 16-18", Money get's close to 2 feet.

 

Chicago, welcome to the struggle of Nebraskans. if the Canadian pans out, you get less than 5".

[gosaints]

http://maps3.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ggem/2016121312/114/snku_acc.us_mw.png

[Tom]

I'm on mobile but the GEM is an absolute monster for MPX and Central Wisconsin, right over Money's area. MPX get's 16-18", Money get's close to 2 feet.

 

Chicago, welcome to the struggle of Nebraskans. if the Canadian pans out, you get less than 5".

The high is farther west on the GGEM and the energy ejects a tad quicker also...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2016121312/gem_mslpa_us_16.png

 

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016121312/gfs_mslpa_us_16.png

[Stormgeek]

Now if only the GEM held a little more merit... lol. In all seriousness though, this is quite a fun storm to follow. Hoping it doesn't just tag very southern MN like last weekend with the big snows

[Money]

Would like to see euro on board

[Money]

Ukie has a 996 low in SE Iowa at 96

[Niko]

Unfortunately, still many changes to come along. Fun to see how all this plays out.

[Grizzcoat]

[gosaints]

Ukie much more impressive

[hlcater]

It also looks faster, I'd assume that is why it is further north. Or at least a large part of it

[Jaycee]

The high is farther west on the GGEM and the energy ejects a tad quicker also...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2016121312/gem_mslpa_us_16.png

 

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016121312/gfs_mslpa_us_16.png

 

If we played the never have I ever drinking game and said, "never I have I ever seen the GEM pan out 84+ hours out", no one would drink, cuz it's never happened.

[FV-Mike]

Ya the GEM and Canadian are always good to look at but  never really put much faith in them at this length

[gosaints]

I only look at the canadian if it puts feet of snow in my backyard.  In reality every model run should be taken with a grain of salt in this situation.  Lots of moving parts.

 

Gonna be a really difficult forecast for lots of NWS offices.   The slightest of changes will change places from heavy snow to significant icing, and someplaces could deal with some flooding at well.

[Snowshoe]

Lock it in!

 

http://maps3.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ggem/2016121312/114/snku_acc.us_mw.png

[gosaints]

Para GFS pretty locked in with the GFS