12/16 - 12/18 Plains/Lakes Major Winter Storm

[Money]

Para GFS pretty locked in with the GFS

Gfs has been consistent as can be so far

[Tom]

12z GEFS S/SE compared to 00z GEFS run...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2016121312/gfs-ens_mslpa_us_16.png

 

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2016121312/gfs-ens_mslpa_us_17.png

[Tom]

Slight changes around here, but bodes well to remain all snow north of the "cheddar curtain"..

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2016121312/gfs-ememb_lowlocs_us_17.png

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2016121312/gfs-ememb_lowlocs_us_18.png

[gosaints]

The best part of these systems that are so complex is that everyone can pick there favorite model run outside of say 36 hours and they have something good to look at.  

 

And they are all possibilities

[jaster220]

D**n, close call. That would have been another great accumulating snowfall for SEMI. Near miss!!!!

 

Uhmmm, you missed the point I was making that laying down snow further south could help us for the bigger storm on the weekend. A trade-off I'd gladly make.

 

Would like to see euro on board

 

I think it is, did you check the caboose??

[jaster220]

@ 12z GEFS = baby, my baby steps. Wanna get this going over DET to CLE to remain AOB freezing entire duration.

 

CPC's update says "what heat spike?" Took my high winds away, but wall-to-wall much below normal 16-20th

 

 

[Tom]

12 GEFS have dried up a bit compared to 00z run...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2016121300/gfs-ens_apcpn_us_22.png

 

 

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2016121312/gfs-ens_apcpn_us_20.png

[Niko]

Uhmmm, you missed the point I was making that laying down snow further south could help us for the bigger storm on the weekend. A trade-off I'd gladly make.

 

 

I think it is, did you check the caboose??

I can get a little greedy!

[jaster220]

@ qpf

 

I think we've played this game recently, the models trend down only to regain their prior moist look towards the kick-off hour. Not our main concern at this point, track is..

[Niko]

@ 12z GEFS = baby, my baby steps. Wanna get this going over DET to CLE to remain AOB freezing entire duration.

 

CPC's update says "what heat spike?" Took my high winds away, but wall-to-wall much below normal 16-20th

 

20161213 CPC 3-7day Hazards.png

Jaster, i hate these maps, they make me dizzy, as if I drank a whole bottle of wine ......but, I think I like what I see.

[jaster220]

 

 

@ 12z GEFS = baby, my baby steps. Wanna get this going over DET to CLE to remain AOB freezing entire duration.

 

Well, per my local grid, that mission shouldn't be impossible, LOL, guess I should've peeked first before posting:

 

 

[CentralNebWeather]

12Z Euro has begun.  Come on, great run.  I am again talking to the computer.

[Jaycee]

GEFS Ensembles thru 120 hr:

[Niko]

GEFS Ensembles thru 120 hr:

I'll take 8-10 inches in a heart beat.

[CentralNebWeather]

GEFS Ensembles thru 120 hr:

Some look great, some look ok, and some look horrible.  Maybe we will be for a surprise this weekend on the positive side for a change.

[Tom]

12z Euro is colder for NE...like the 12z NAM...

[Jaycee]

EURO also looks slower and further south, digs more than the 12z.

[Tom]

997mb near STL @ HR 96...

[Madtown]

I'll take most of those ensembles.

[Tom]

This could be a good run for the central Plains states...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2016121312/ecmwf_T850_us_5.png

[Madtown]

Can't imagine it can dig much with how fast it's all moving.

[gosaints]

997mb near STL @ HR 96...

GFS and EURO no longer worlds apart

[gosaints]

SOunds like the best WAA stuff is MSP to GB

[Tom]

Based on this map, looks like the rain/snow line cuts through somewhere in Chicago/DTX...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2016121312/ecmwf_T850_ncus_5.png

[gosaints]

Not much precip ...

[Tom]

SOunds like the best WAA stuff is MSP to GB

Hmmm....well, like we just saw, Euro/GFS starting to show some agreement on track but placement of the heaviest snow band still in question...as well as some shifts expected in the track as we are 3 days away till this storm really starts forming in the Rockies.

[gosaints]

Hmmm....well, like we just saw, Euro/GFS starting to show some agreement on track but placement of the heaviest snow band still in question...as well as some shift expected in the track as we are 3 days away till this storm really starts forming in the Rockies.

Sounds like the GFS develops way more cold sector precip with the actual storm as well

[Tom]

From what I can tell, 12z Euro tracks from south of Denver, towards STL/C IN/N OH...

[Jaycee]

From what I can tell, 12z Euro tracks from south of Denver, towards STL/C IN/N OH...

That's what I'm seeing as well. It takes a perfect track for Nebraska, but the precip shield is strange on every model so it's impossible to tell. No idea what's gunna happen with this one.

[mlgamer]

As it stands now, I expect the nearly 3-year string of 1" snowfalls IMBY to continue with this storm...

[Money]

How much precip?

[jaster220]

Wagons north

 

Now, just HOLD them horses if you're gonna go there..  

[Grizzcoat]

Accu WX numerical data output for the 12z Euro is stuck at 00z Fri--- normally much further along at this time frame...

[CentralNebWeather]

That's what I'm seeing as well. It takes a perfect track for Nebraska, but the precip shield is strange on every model so it's impossible to tell. No idea what's gunna happen with this one.

That is what's going to be interesting about this storm.  One of the NWS offices around here, not sure if it was North Platte or Hastings, said it may be very late until they can pinpoint the exact axis of heavier snow band.

[Tony]

This could be a good run for the central Plains states...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2016121312/ecmwf_T850_us_5.png

Looks alot like the Ukie as far as track and strenght but qpf and type is an issue.

[gosaints]

Never takes its time to get its crap together

[Tom]

There will be some interesting AFD discos this afternoon...every snow weenie in each local NWS office will pick their favorite model and run with it!

[indianajohn]

so If I am follwing you guys correclty this could be an all out blizzard or rain for my area LOL!

[Tom]

The Packers vs Bears game in Soldier Field on Sunday will be an Arctic Tundra!  Word on the street is, the Bear's are already in hibernation mode 

[Hoosier]

so If I am follwing you guys correclty this could be an all out blizzard or rain for my area LOL!

Hey, where in northwest Indiana are you?