12/16 - 12/18 Plains/Lakes Major Winter Storm

[hlcater]

Sorry, if you took offense.  I forgot in this day and age one must be PC at all times.  I know Grizz, we get drinks from time to time, so I know he is not taking offense to this joke nor any other I make regarding him.  I don't insult people I do not know, fyi.

not taking offense at all, just took it as you didn't know him, in which case would've been uncalled for if you ask me. but if you know him, that's not my business

[clintbeed1993]

http://theweatherforums.com/index.php/topic/1127-winter-banter-and-complaint-thread/ 

 

Just going to leave this here...

[6789]

Dear God, please shift North  by another 50 miles. I might be the only person from Chicago hoping this doesn't pan out to be anything major. A chemistry final at 9 A.M. on Saturday + this = horrible. Commuting an hour into the city would just be a nightmare. Oh well, backside snows after 11 A.M. on Saturday are welcome . What a crazy way to begin winter, just went outside and it was BRUTAL. 

[Tom]

Tom, could this still shift south by maybe 50 miles or so?

Could go either way. I remember with the last system the RPM/NAM placed the heavy band in S Wisco and not so much in N IL at this range. Shifts will happen at this range. The main energy will be sampled by 00z Thursday.

[james1976]

You people realize it's Dec 13th right?? Not March 13th.

[Money]

Here's some precip maps on GGEM.

 

78:

 

http://maps3.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ggem/2016121400/078/prateptype.us_mw.png

 

http://maps3.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ggem/2016121400/084/prateptype.us_mw.png

[Jaycee]

As the complaints become present,

 

We sit here,

 

A drought in the making, 

 

A dust storm near. 

 

As Iowans crumble,

 

We can't help but chuckle,

 

Laugh at the familiar pain,

 

That stings like a bumble,

 

As Chicago continues to win, and us to lose,

 

Cheers my lads, let's drink some booze.

[gosaints]

The energy associated with this storm won't even be sampled for another 48 hours and I heard it isn't in the best location right now to be sampled and we have people getting this upset...

Brings back memories of my worst days on americanwx

[Money]

Brings back memories of my worst days on americanwx

 

I've seen too many big changes inside 84-96 hours to get all worked up or excited. Sampling matters a lot. Won't take much to get this thing to be a wound up storm. Won't take much to lose it either. 

[Money]

0z GGEM:

 

http://maps3.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ggem/2016121400/102/snku_acc.us_mw.png

[ToastedRavs]

As the complaints become present,

 

We sit here,

 

A drought in the making, 

 

A dust storm near. 

 

As Iowans crumble,

 

We can't help but chuckle,

 

Laugh at the familiar pain,

 

That stings like a bumble,

 

As Chicago continues to win, and us to lose,

 

Cheers my lads, let's drink some booze.

 

 

You have talent over there!  Maybe from the lack of snow shoveling!

[clintbeed1993]

The energy associated with this storm won't even be sampled for another 48 hours and I heard it isn't in the best location right now to be sampled and we have people getting this upset...

 

Let me put it this way.  Nebraskans feel like SJW's the morning after Trump was elected.  It's brutal out here.

[Money]

Brings back memories of my worst days on americanwx

 

I kind of miss bowme and wisconsinwx 

[Tom]

I kind of miss bowme and wisconsinwx

Where has WisconsinWx been???

[Andrew NE]

0z GGEM:

 

http://maps3.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ggem/2016121400/102/snku_acc.us_mw.png

I would take that solution all day long tbh. 3-4"

[james1976]

0z GGEM:

 

http://maps3.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ggem/2016121400/102/snku_acc.us_mw.png

9" dumped on my house! Id take it

[Money]

Ukie looks pretty strong:

 

http://img.meteocentre.com/models/ukmet_amer_00/GZ_D5_PN_096_0000.gif

 

GGEM 96:

 

http://img.meteocentre.com/models/gemglb_amer_00/GZ_D5_PN_096_0000.gif

[gosaints]

I kind of miss bowme and wisconsinwx

And alek. The man could stir the pot like no other, but he knew his weather

[Money]

And alek. The man could stir the pot like no other, but he knew his weather

 

ya, he loved to mess with people. 

 

Is bowme still on AMWX?

[gosaints]

ya, he loved to mess with people.

 

Is bowme still on AMWX?

No got sent to exile island

[hlcater]

And alek. The man could stir the pot like no other, but he knew his weather

He got chased out in PR. but that is a whole other story. He definitely knew how to push some people's buttons, but he wasn't stupid, like you said.

[Jaycee]

Good thing the GEM is about as accurate as the Mayan's end of the world prediction. Canada just legalized the green, and I'm pretty sure the GEM shmerks some of that chron chron slip john before every run. 

[Money]

Seemed like things reversed.

 

For awhile it used to be GFS the stronger/slower model and the globals weaker/south. Now Ukie/GGEM came in slower/stronger and GFS faster/weaker. 

[Money]

Pretty big spread on the GFS Ensembles:

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2016121400/gfs-ememb_lowlocs_us_15.png

[bud2380]

Nobody stayed up for the euro??? Good idea. It was virtually identical to the previous several runs

[Money]

6z GFS:

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2016121406/120/snku_acc.us_mw.png

 

6z NAM:

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/nam/2016121406/084/snku_acc.us_mw.png

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/nam/2016121406/084/refcmp_ptype.us_mw.png

 

Takes a 996 L over southern LM with a nice defo band 

[St Paul Storm]

MPX and ARX pulled the trigger on a Winter Storm Watch. MPX talks about the thick dendritic growth zone and ratios up to 18:1. Half of the top 15 CIPS analogs have storms that produced double digit snowfalls in MN/WI.

[Grizzcoat]

Euro is getting drier for many...

[Snowshoe]

Green Bay with an advisory for wind chills. Holding off on watch for snow for now.

 

Offices to the west

are contemplating winter storm watches at this time. Since this

will a 5th into a 7th period event, will hold off on a winter

storm watch for now.

[Tom]

00z GFS Para...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfsp/2016121400/gfsp_asnow_us_18.png

[Tom]

00z Euro with an advisory snow for N IL/N IN/S MI...

 

 

[Snowshoe]

Watches issued for western Wisconsin

[gosaints]

Love msp/eau claire area currently for this one

[Tom]

Love msp/eau claire area currently for this one

Your area and S/C Wisco is sitting pretty.  I'm riding the edge.  Historically, a track from from STL to FWA is ideal for N IL.  Hope the smaller features of this system start getting ironed out and placement of a possible defo band can somehow swing through.

 

From LOT:

 

 

 

There is growing model consensus on the low tracking

from near STL Saturday morning to near FWA Saturday afternoon.

While the ECMWF remains a hair farther south compared to the GFS,

differences are getting smaller. With that in mind, there is

growing confidence in a primarily snow event north of I-80 with

the threat for a wintry mix including sleet and freezing rain up

to but primarily south of the I-80 corridor. Snowfall should

really ramp up starting around midday Friday as mid-level warm air

advection strengthens. Strongest f-gen corridor appears to fall

close to the IL/WI state line and north. Several inches of

accumulating snowfall appear possible, but the axis of heaviest

snow, at least with this set of model runs, may fall just to our

north. Snow totals will quickly taper south of I-80 where warmer

temps will result in less efficient snow and a mix at times. 

[james1976]

Yup looking drier and drier for my area.

[Grizzcoat]

Normally a storm like this going over or very  near STL would give C.IA a whooping. Especially with the cold air in place and with WAA making precip type issues in S.IA-- this one just doesn't have it for C.IA and never seems to really phase. Oh well- if you can't beat em' , join em'. Don't have to worry about the wife doing the driveway so I'am  going winter camping to the BWCAW this weekend--- hot tenting for those who ask. Gave up the cold tenting in the dead winter once I got past 35.

[Tom]

Normally a storm like this going over or very  near STL would give C.IA a whooping. Especially with the cold air in place and with WAA making precip type issues in S.IA-- this one just doesn't have it for C.IA and never seems to really phase. Oh well- if you can't beat em' , join em'. Going winter camping to the BWCAW this weekend anyway--- hot tenting for those who ask. Gave up the cold tenting in the dead winter once I got past 35.

12471771_1101329056578893_5311514136331789371_o.jpg

That's awesome!  Reminds me of how the homesteaders in Alaska live off the grid.  

[Tom]

@ Okwx, confidence is growing that you may squeeze out some snow for the first time this season.  GEFS are showing a back side band to form. 

 

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2016121406/gfs-ens_apcpn24_us_15.png

[St Paul Storm]

The 3z SREF plumes for MSP show 4 big dogs between 15"-17.5", and a few more over 12". With a mean of 8.5". The drier runs of the Euro give me pause, although it's been pretty stingy with precip totals lately. Feeling good for at least 4-6" here at this point.

[Tom]

00z GEPS...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem-ens/2016121400/gem-ens_apcpn_us_20.png