12/16 - 12/18 Plains/Lakes Major Winter Storm

[WBadgersW]

MKX calling for 6-9". Pretty safe bet. Have to see how the recent drying trend plays out.

[james1976]

Is that 6z NAM showing a defo band? But not GFS? DMX is saying GFS is showing higher amounts and is concerned it may verify. Saying headlines likely. Doesnt look like a defo band on that GFS snowfall map.

[james1976]

A defo band would make a big difference in snowfall amounts for a lot of us.

[Snowshoe]

Joined a winter camping Facebook page. I did this a couple times at deer camp but I want a solo trip, maybe my wife would come to.

 

Love the old school snowshoes!

 

https://www.facebook.com/groups/234118507021383/

 

hot tenting for those who ask. Gave up the cold tenting in the dead winter once I got past 35.

 

[Tom]

The main energy is still off shore and we'll only still see partial sampling through the day today...tonight's 00z runs should get close to full sampling.

 

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/GSSLOOPS/wcwv/9.jpg

[james1976]

DMX not event mentioning Euro. They are going with 6-8 across N IA. Id love that!

[Madtown]

Looks like all Wisconsin and mpx going with the further north idea

[Tom]

12z NAM looks a little stronger out west in Cali and plugging into more PAC moisture...

[Tom]

SREF's looking good for MSP/MSN/MKE/LSE/GRB...

[hlcater]

Looks like all Wisconsin and mpx going with the further north idea

DVN too. Nuked their big storm idea. Now saying an inch or two at best.

[jaster220]

00z Euro with an advisory snow for N IL/N IN/S MI...

 

 

 

The 3z SREF plumes for MSP show 4 big dogs between 15"-17.5", and a few more over 12". With a mean of 8.5". The drier runs of the Euro give me pause, although it's been pretty stingy with precip totals lately. Feeling good for at least 4-6" here at this point.

 

EC blew chunks on the qpf in SMI last Sunday. For example, DTW had like .96" measured, when the EC was calling for .52 in. That model's always been late to the qpf party, but it's latest version doesn't even bother to show up. 

[Madtown]

Must be looking at the wrong thing sref for Madison showing 4" with many under that.

[Tom]

Must be looking at the wrong thing sref for Madison showing 4" with many under that.

It's been on the rise though as well as MKE...

[Tom]

12z NAM literally puts the heavy snow band along the WI/IL border!  So close....

 

Edit: This is the full run as the NAM shows a defo band hitting Wisco...

[Tom]

12z NAM clobbers S MN and most of WI...real nice hit for them...

[Niko]

12z NAM literally puts the heavy snow band along the WI/IL border!  So close....

 

Edit: This is the full run as the NAM shows a defo band hitting Wisco...

What a sharp cut-off.

[WBadgersW]

Big improvement over the last couple runs.

[Tom]

What a sharp cut-off.

No doubt.  Riding the southern edge with these type of systems is a nail biter.

[Yerf]

00z GFS

 

[Niko]

With any luck, I will remain all snow. Places to my south, i.e, Detroit, Metro and southward counties will be looking at a possible changeover to ice or even possibly rain on Saturday before arctic air rushes in.

[Niko]

@Tom

 

are you located on the northern part of Illinois, central, or southernmost part?

[Tom]

@Tom

 

are you located on the northern part of Illinois, central, or southernmost part?

I'm just north of ORD...about 3 miles 

[Tom]

12z NAM precip totals...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/namconus/2016121412/namconus_apcpn_ncus_28.png

[jaster220]

12z NAM literally puts the heavy snow band along the WI/IL border!  So close....

 

Edit: This is the full run as the NAM shows a defo band hitting Wisco...

 

Which is surprising, since I'm told the NAM's running colder than the GFS??  Idk, but combined with LES expected for a day or so, GFS pounds SWMI 

 

Prolly be 2 foot OTG in the best places

 

 

[Tony]

12z NAM literally puts the heavy snow band along the WI/IL border!  So close....

 

Edit: This is the full run as the NAM shows a defo band hitting Wisco...

Need to tick this puppy a little south the next couple days. The 12k NAM really looks a lot better then the operational.

[St Paul Storm]

Another uptick on the 9z. Getting interesting.

[Niko]

Need to tick this puppy a little south the next couple days. The 12k NAM really looks a lot better then the operational.

I think the heavy dense, arctic cold air should push it south.

[james1976]

Looks drier for IA. Dang

[Tom]

Another uptick on the 9z. Getting interesting.

Your golden...WAA snows are almost always north like the last system and you should have a long duration snow storm this weekend.

[Money]

Should be good for 6-10 here

[jaster220]

6z NAM @ 75hrs looking prime for SMI as well 

 

Solid WWA coming, I can feel it, top shelf WWA stuff on tap GRR, come on, you can do it! 

 

 

[Niko]

6z NAM @ 75hrs looking prime for SMI as well 

 

Solid WWA coming, I can feel it, top shelf WWA stuff on tap GRR, come on, you can do it! 

 

20161214 NAM 0z 75hr surf n precip.JPG

Sweet...look at all that heavy snow in SMI. Jackpot again!!!!!  

[St Paul Storm]

12z GFS appears to be holding serve through hour 72. A slight tick stronger. SE WI shoreline pound town. Money special in Fondy.

[Snowshoe]

Just barely missing a wound up system aren't we? Shoves a lot of energy to the mid-atlantic. 

[WBadgersW]

12z wetter for us in Eastern WI. Might be Lehs

[WBadgersW]

[Snowshoe]

Not a productive week at work. 

[Tom]

12z GFS...still looking decent for Chitown...clear Lehs signal showing up.  Usually, it's Lake county and points north that do well in these situations.  Might get some backside lake enhanced snow for a period when northerly winds lock in.

 

850's crash on the back side and a slight N/NE flow develops.  Might even tug down lake moisture from Lake Superior and double down on MKE/NE IL....

 

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016121412/gfs_mslp_wind_ncus_14.png

 

 

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016121412/gfs_T850_ncus_14.png

 

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016121412/gfs_mslp_wind_ncus_15.png

[james1976]

12z gfs looks a tick south with heavier snow band in IA compared to 6z run. About an inch more imby.

[Snowshoe]

Love me some NAM in the morning!

http://wxcaster4.com/nam/CONUS1_NAM212_SFC_ACCUM-SNOWFALL-KUCHERA_84HR.gif