12/16 - 12/18 Plains/Lakes Major Winter Storm

[Money]

Good trends so far

[St Paul Storm]

GGEM, the model everyone trashes unless it shows want you want to see. Gotta love it.

[Tom]

 

 

 

Yeah, its hard to believe this won't be an upward trender towards game-time - it's got a LOT going for it. 

 

I could sorta believe those crazy d6+ amts that were shown for SMI if we had an actual Defo 2nd wave on top of the WAA snows, but that map does not reflect a swath where I've outlined in red??

 

20161214 GFS 156hr snowfall markup.JPG

 

That is during the impressive WAA snows...so no, this would not be during the actual formation of a "possible" defo band.

[Tom]

I'll be more enthusiastic if the Euro jumps on board and starts spitting out some higher snowfall totals.  Let's see what today's 12z run shows.  IF there is any consistency, then I'd imagine more headlines to be issued in the region during today's AFD's.

[Niko]

   cant help but be all smiles here. GRR has expanded the WWA to even include mby plus they've taken the dreaded MIX out of the storm for Saturday

 

all within the past hour..

 

20161214 KRMY WWA & 5-day.JPG

Looking good Jaster.

[Madtown]

Ggem is as good as us☺.. I mean we all thought the cold air wouldn't let it go far north...then it went north. We said wwa always over performs. No one knows, that's what makes weather fascinating. My best guess is LA Crosse to sheboygan gets smoked.

[CentralNebWeather]

It's unfortunate that we are relying on the Canadian for any decent chance of snow here in Nebraska! My forecast is now down to 50% chance of snow for Friday and Saturday

I am going to be watching the Euro and see who it sides with.  I think I had one forecast down to 30%.  Even if we could get 1 inch it might be exciting with some of the winds being forecasted.

[james1976]

GGEM has scored a coupe or 2 in the past. Its not a horrible model.

[OKwx2k4]

I'm not liking trends for my area. There's a gradual NW shift to that southern part. Story of my life. There's still time for a few more changes though.

[Tom]

12z Euro shows a strong 996mb SLP in C IL/ STL...

[Tony]

I'll be more enthusiastic if the Euro jumps on board and starts spitting out some higher snowfall totals.  Let's see what today's 12z run shows.  IF there is any consistency, then I'd imagine more headlines to be issued in the region during today's AFD's.

It would be a plesant surprise to see the Euro come in with a big run but its been pretty stingy of late and not very cooperative. 

[gosaints]

12z Euro shows a strong 996mb SLP in C IL/ STL...

Yep much like yesterdays 12z EURO.  Wonder if develops any backside precip as it has been anemic

[jaster220]

WPC playing it conservative. This is 4+ map, so far there's no 8+ issued. 

 

 

 

 

Surf LP seems to be f-cast pretty robust though:

 

 

[gosaints]

The low location on the EURO and GFS at hour 72 is almost identical.  EURO just a bit stronger

[Tom]

12z Euro...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2016121412/ecmwf_T850_ncus_4.png

[Tom]

The low location on the EURO and GFS at hour 72 is almost identical.  EURO just a bit stronger

We can finally say they are in agreement in placement.  Interested to see precip maps.

[shakjen]

12z Euro...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2016121412/ecmwf_T850_ncus_4.png

I am right on the red line. Hopefully it is colder and stays all snow.

[Madtown]

Come on euro throw some precipitation around that thing!

[Tom]

Looks like it tracks just south of DTX...I'm just guessing from the placement of the low at HR 72 - 96

[Niko]

My forecast high for Saturday is trending colder...Hmmmm?!

[Niko]

Looks like it tracks just south of DTX...I'm just guessing from the placement of the low at HR 72 - 96

That is good news for the burbs of DTW. Mainly colder air throughout the duration of this snowstorm.

[Tom]

A lot of consistency on the ensembles that the SLP will track near STL...

 

12z GEPS...looks like a lot of mid 990's

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem-ens/2016121412/gem-ememb_lowlocs_us_13.png

[hlcater]

A lot of consistency on the ensembles that the SLP will track near STL...

 

12z GEPS...looks like a lot of mid 990's

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem-ens/2016121412/gem-ememb_lowlocs_us_13.png

It has almost no associated precip however. At least on 2 out of the 3 big operational globals.(cmon Canada, lets real this one in)

[Tom]

12z GEPS colder and potentially snowier for IA/IL/IN/MI peeps...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem-ens/2016121412/gem-ens_apcpn_us_20.png

 

 

Freezing line...

 

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem-ens/2016121412/gem-ens_T2m_us_14.png

[CentralNebWeather]

What does the Euro snowfall map show?

[East Dubzz]

Yeah the track of the SLP is great and all, but it means very, very little if the precip to go along with it is going to be so D**n weak. 

[Money]

Euro snow maps anyone?

[chances14]

Euro snow maps anyone?

[CentralNebWeather]

ecmwf_tsnow_mw_18.png

Wow, that Euro snowfall map is horrible for many on here.

[winterfreak]

The EURO is so dry.

[Hoosier]

10:1 ratio map. It's going to be better than that, especially deeper into the colder air.

[Tony]

Wow, that Euro snowfall map is horrible for many on here.

Don't be surprised and expect nothing more than what is being shown...it's the Euro.

[gosaints]

Euro actually wetter in the WAA zone i believe than previous runs

[Madtown]

Different planet

[St Paul Storm]

Euro actually wetter in the WAA zone i believe than previous runs

It is wetter. And that map is 10:1 ratios. They will be more like 15:1 or higher. I'll take that anyday. Things are looking good for us.

[WBadgersW]

Seems like the Euro always has to ruin the fun these days. Ill bank on my NAM/GFS/Ggem combo.

 

Sampling is going to occur with tonights 00z, correct?

[Money]

Seems like the Euro always has to ruin the fun these days. Ill bank on my NAM/GFS/Ggem combo.

 

Sampling is going to occur with tonights 00z, correct?

European shows almost a foot

[gosaints]

It is wetter. And that map is 10:1 ratios. They will be more like 15:1 or higher. I'll take that anyday. Things are looking good for us.

You will do better than 15:1 i think

[GDR]

T swails siding with euro precip amount. Could be some disappointed folks on here

[buzzman289]

that's this mornings blog from swails. not updated yet