12/16 - 12/18 Plains/Lakes Major Winter Storm

[Money]

0z NAM...

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/nam/2016121500/060/snku_acc.us_mw.png

[Money]

It almost looks like NAM is trying to develop a defo band towards the end...

 

Am I seeing things?

[james1976]

Im not gonna see a flake by tomorrow's runs lol

[Money]

HR 69:

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/nam/2016121500/069/refcmp_ptype.us_mw.png

[Money]

Ends up snowing all the way through 6z Sunday for some areas.

 

Final totals on the NAM:

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/nam/2016121500/078/snku_acc.us_mw.png

[Money]

NAM breaks out precip all the way from KS through WI

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/nam/2016121500/066/refcmp_ptype.conus.png

[Madtown]

Well not a fan of that one. Not horrible though.

[gosaints]

Ends up snowing all the way through 6z Sunday for some areas.

 

Final totals on the NAM:

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/nam/2016121500/078/snku_acc.us_mw.png

Looking like best stuff north of here though the waa band orientation wont be set until at leadt friday morning

[WBadgersW]

Alright now lets not trend North. Just stay put NAM.Let the GFS do the work.

[Money]

Looking like best stuff north of here though the waa band orientation wont be set until at leadt friday morning

 

Yeah, those are usually tricky and are not decided until it starts showing up on radar. 

[james1976]

Oh nice......NAM trying to bring that defo band back

[Money]

Oh nice......NAM trying to bring that defo band back

 

That's def. going to be the one thing to watch the next 24 hours as the storm comes onshore. Models sometimes under-estimate QPF like a few storms ago when they were only showing 1-3 and some places got nearly 10. 

 

We'll see how it develops. 

[james1976]

That's def. going to be the one thing to watch the next 24 hours as the storm comes onshore. Models sometimes under-estimate QPF like a few storms ago when they were only showing 1-3 and some places got nearly 10. 

 

We'll see how it develops. 

Sampling coming in to play ball?

[hlcater]

Yup. IIRC defo zones can often be last minute consolation prizes/over performers to the areas to the west/northwest of the surface low

[gosaints]

Sampling coming in to play ball?

Sure could or it could kick us in the balls

[james1976]

Sure could or it could kick us in the balls

I think you are safe no matter what. would take a huge jump north to screw you

[Madtown]

Only 60mi more north on the nam and I'm outta the game.

[Andrew NE]

[East Dubzz]

Everyone needs to chill, the CMC is right anyway. Nothing to worry about folks. 6-12" for us all.

[St Paul Storm]

Only 60mi more north on the nam and I'm outta the game.

The low on the NAM won't go 60 miles north. You're in a good spot.

[GDR]

[GDR]

Right now it looks like a dry slot over Chicago

[Tom]

Wagons north says the RPM... maybe 2" locally...

[Money]

Gfs looking similar through 45

[Madtown]

Put a fork in er

[GDR]

Train keeps on chugging north! Wow

[gosaints]

994 central missouri at hour 57

[jaster220]

Wagons north says the RPM... maybe 2" locally...

#sad!

[gosaints]

Looks like it's gonna have a better defo band as well

Good sign

[Money]

Crushes eastern WI.

 

3-4 inches of snow in 3 hours with the 2nd wave that swings through at HR 66.

[gosaints]

Crushes eastern WI.

 

3-4 inches of snow in 3 hours with the 2nd wave that swings through at HR 66.

Good run.  The lead low pressure is stronger than what gets left behind which is a new development

[Money]

Through 72:

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2016121500/072/snku_acc.us_mw.png

[WBadgersW]

1.0+ qpf? WOW

[Money]

1.0+ qpf? WOW

 

It really develops that defo band as the storm passes. Low is stronger this run.

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2016121500/072/prateptype_cat.us_mw.png

[james1976]

Nice run. Both GFS and NAM look a bit better tonight.

[gosaints]

1.0+ qpf? WOW

 legit storm versus simply a WAA event

[ToastedRavs]

Going to have to watch out for that dry air intrusion. It always bites someone hard and is often under forecasted, cutting totals way back. Seen it happen many times, sadly

[Tom]

The lake will be your friend up north...

[gosaints]

Going to have to watch out for that dry air intrusion. It always bites someone hard and is often under forecasted, cutting totals way back. Seen it happen many times, sadly

It would be a welcome worry as it then says the low pressure system has developed a true storm

[Money]

And here's the final totals:

 

QPF:

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2016121500/084/qpf_acc.us_mw.png

 

Snow:

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2016121500/084/snku_acc.us_mw.png