12/16 - 12/18 Plains/Lakes Major Winter Storm

[winterfreak]

Those ratios are just a tad overdone in my humble opinion.

[gosaints]

Those ratios are just a tad overdone in my humble opinion.

Looks like around 18:1 on the northern flank near msp. Probably not to inflated

[NEJeremy]

WWA for me. Up to .10" of freezing drizzle tomorrow followed by 1-2" of snow Friday night and Saturday morning. I hope we can survive.

[East Dubzz]

Looks like around 18:1 on the northern flank near msp. Probably not to inflated

Yeah, cold throughout all the layers of the atmosphere, so a very good looking DGZ:

 

[Tom]

Looks a little south with heavier qpf. I think this run was just a little colder keeping it mostly snow city on north.

This is all to similar to what we had experienced last weekend.  In order to get those 4-8" totals, we really need to bank on the defo band just like last weekend.  If we can squeeze .25-.30qpf from that band with high ratios I can see 3-5" additional possibly from that if it transpires.

[Tony]

Good write up by LOT...here is just a small portion of it:

 

Pattern recognition wise, the operational global model consensus
surface low track on Saturday from near or just north of STL to
near LAF is favorable for significant snow accumulations in
northern Illinois (especially north of I-80), but the devil is in
the details. The open positive tilt nature of the upper wave is
giving the guidance fits in how coherent the precipitation shield
remains on Saturday, and with some of the mid-upper energy not
sampled for today`s 12z RAOBS, further adjustments in the guidance
are likely tonight. If good snow rates continue, especially
far northern Illinois, then adding to concern for higher amounts
Friday afternoon-evening, higher snow amounts are also possible.
For this reason, continued issuing a Winter Storm Watch for the
northern tier of counties of the CWA, but opted to issue an
Advisory for now, with potential based on trends needing to
upgrade to a Winter Storm Warning.
 

[Tom]

18z NAM Para showing the Lehs nicely for MKE...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nam3km/2016121518/nam3km_mslp_pcpn_frzn_ncus_35.png

 

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nam3km/2016121518/nam3km_mslp_pcpn_frzn_ncus_41.png

 

 

Then it develops a meso scale low near MKE...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nam3km/2016121518/nam3km_mslp_pcpn_frzn_ncus_44.png

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nam3km/2016121518/nam3km_mslp_pcpn_frzn_ncus_49.png

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nam3km/2016121518/nam3km_mslp_pcpn_frzn_ncus_60.png

[gabel23]

Is anybody else's national weather service page messed up?? The warnings are shown on the national page but not the local pages. The observations are also not shown.....,

[WBadgersW]

Is anybody else's national weather service page messed up?? The warnings are shown on the national page but not the local pages. The observations are also not shown.....,

Yeah. Thought it was just me

[St Paul Storm]

DGZ of 500mb during the peak snowfall. I'm not sure I've seen one that deep before. This stuff is gonna fluff up in a hurry. Radar really lighting up already. Will be fighting some dry air So will take a bit to saturate the column, but nice to see this already.

[CentralNebWeather]

Is anybody else's national weather service page messed up?? The warnings are shown on the national page but not the local pages. The observations are also not shown.....,

I thought I had done something. It takes forever to load then you go to the national page.

[Tom]

00z NAM looks better for N IL with the WAA snows...E/C Wisco & C MI look great also...looks like the SLP is weaker and tracks farther south...

[Hoosier]

The NAM looks funky with the surface pattern. Though it's nice to see it get wetter for Chi metro.

[Tom]

Pretty good "thump" snow for the evening commute around 6:00pm...

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/nam/2016121600/024/refcmp_ptype.us_mw.png

[Tom]

00z NAM...develops a lake plume...

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/nam/2016121600/048/refcmp_ptype.us_mw.png

[Money]

Nice defo band

[Tom]

The best run so far for Chicago...

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/nam/2016121600/054/qpf_acc.us_mw.png

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/nam/2016121600/054/snku_acc.us_mw.png

[Tom]

Run after Run, MSN/MKE/SBN get crushed...

[Money]

Run after Run, MSN/MKE/SBN get crushed...

Yup

 

MKE going with 12 inches of snow here

[Snowshoe]

Could probably remove "potential" from the thread title. Pretty safe bet it will show.

[indianajohn]

The way models have been flip flopping I will take 6" for NWI!

[Hoosier]

The way models have been flip flopping I will take 6" for NWI!

4-6" looks pretty doable for us. We're probably gonna need a colder trend or the second wave to trend better to get over 6", but keep an eye on tomorrow. If we're sitting at like 4" or 5" by midnight, then we're in really good shape to go over.

[FV-Mike]

LOT update at 8:00pm

 

"The 00Z
NAM is starting to roll in and first 24 hours continues to
strongly support our going forecast of a quick hitting shot
of accumulating (ill-timed for rush hour) snow."
 

[Tom]

00z GFS is on board with a similar look as the NAM through HR 27...

 

Edit: About 2mb weaker SLP near KC...998mb

[Money]

Stronger defo band than 18z?

[Tom]

Defo band still looks good on the GFS...NE still showing a few inches and near KC...

[Madtown]

Not much change to things tonight?

[Tom]

Stronger defo band than 18z?

At HR  45 it looks like a line of thunderstorms!  

[Money]

Defo band still looks good on the GFS...NE still showing a few inches and near KC...

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2016121600/039/prateptype_cat.us_mw.png

[Niko]

It will definitely get nasty here in SEMI on Saturday with freezing drizzle on and off after my snowfall (6"+). Yikes!

[Tom]

That looks sweet...stronger each run...12-hour snowfall

[Money]

Through 45:

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2016121600/045/snku_acc.us_mw.png

[Money]

Milwaukee gets crushed this run.

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2016121600/048/snku_acc.us_mw.png

[Tom]

All of N IL with 6"+ of snowfall this run...some spots 10-12"...

[Tom]

00z GFS...snowfall

[Money]

QPF:

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2016121600/054/qpf_acc.us_mw.png

[WBadgersW]

MKE gets 18"...

[gosaints]

Rgem

 

http://maps3.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/rgem/2016121600/048/snku_acc.us_mw.png

[Tom]

12" mark creeping its way south of the cheddar curtain...

 

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2016121600/054/snku_acc.us_mw.png

[Tom]

Interesting couple of runs tonight so far...