12/16 - 12/18 Plains/Lakes Major Winter Storm

[CentralNebWeather]

Don't be surprised and expect nothing more than what is being shown...it's the Euro.

Lately nothing surprises me and I expect less than is being shown until patterns change.  

[VMB443]

MKE just issued a Winter Storm Watch - 7-10 inches.

[Snowshoe]

Same for GRB

 

MKE just issued a Winter Storm Watch - 7-10 inches.

[jaster220]

12z Euro...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2016121412/ecmwf_T850_ncus_4.png

 

Tom, what'd I miss here? WPC map is not showing a SLP there at hr 72. Does there map stop a bit earlier?

[Madtown]

Not feeling good being on the southern end of the watch.

[Yerf]

[jaster220]

15418336_1168594376565047_1966768609341482719_o.png

 

Are they trying to balance krazy dude's map by posting the most conservative Euro, or what? Is that the only model they show? Just curious why peeps keep posting Euro-Scrooge's map?

[Niko]

I am interesting in tonight's runs and also tomorrows.

[GDR]

Are they trying to balance krazy dude's map by posting the most conservative Euro, or what? Is that the only model they show? Just curious why peeps keep posting Euro-Scrooge's map?

why don't you just take the gfs and run with it?

[Yerf]

GFS!

[Niko]

This storm has potential to over perform.

[jaster220]

why don't you just take the gfs and run with it?

 

Oh, I am, and apparently Roger Smith likes it as well. Would love for his zealous calls to verify this time 

 

 

[Tom]

18z NAM took a tick south it seems into N IL with the snow band from previous 12z run...

[Niko]

Oh, I am, and apparently Roger Smith likes it as well. Would love for his zealous calls to verify this time 

 

20161214 Roger Smith - pre sampling call.JPG

@ DTW predicted  12". Bam!!

[Tom]

Surprisingly, 18z NAM is the weakest of the bunch...1000mb near STL...

[Tom]

Check that, was using Instantwxmaps...showing a 997mb near STL...MN/WI are the winners with the NAM..

[james1976]

Wow. Down to 3" imby

[Snowshoe]

Hr 66 has a 997 in SW Missouri

Surprisingly, 18z NAM is the weakest of the bunch...1000mb near STL...

[james1976]

Big change from this morning. No defo band it appears

[East Dubzz]

It appears the second wave with this system is going to be pretty lame.

[Snowshoe]

Winter is here in full force!!! 

[james1976]

Did the storm from last weekend already cycle around? Lol

[Money]

Big change from this morning. No defo band it appears

Still has it but farther north

[james1976]

I wonder if GFS will bunny hop north. It appeared to come a tick south last run.

[Tom]

Still has it but farther north

Looks like the SLP goes into N MI!   ...highly suspect...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/namconus/2016121418/namconus_ref_frzn_ncus_49.png

[Tom]

Winter is here in full force!!! 

That is going to be a fun experience...the fluff will be blown around easily!  Enjoy it!

[jaster220]

Looks like the SLP goes into N MI!   ...highly suspect...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/namconus/2016121418/namconus_ref_frzn_ncus_49.png

 

...and here's an over-amped NAM run - shocker 

[GDR]

My guess is north. Why not??

[Tom]

12z GFS Para...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfsp/2016121412/gfsp_apcpn_us_17.png

[james1976]

Para looks drier too

[ToastedRavs]

It's the 18z NAM, two combination that raise caution. Even if it's within 72 hours

[jaster220]

Para looks drier too

 

Para looks wetter too

[Snowshoe]

NWS LaCrosse snow ratio disco.

Snowfall from Fri
afternoon into Sat morning looking like a given. Tricker part
remains snow-water ratios and snowfall amounts.  Higher PW values
and deeper/stronger of the lift trends over the south 1/2 of the
fcst area, with sounding showing a DGZ of 50-75mb. Across the north
half, less moisture/lift (still plenty of broad/deep ascent), but
the DGZ is as much as 200-400mb deep below 500mb. Model progs
producing snow-liquid ratios of 10-12:1 over the south 1/3 of the
fcst area to 18-20:1 over the north end. Given a rather uniform
liquid precip production across the area Fri into Sat, these snow-
liquid ratios produce 4-6 inches of snow across the S end of the
fcst area, to 5 to 9 inches over the N 3/4 of the area. If the
snow-liquid ratios end up different from the above values, total
snowfall amounts could easily change by 2 to 3 inches (up across
the south and down across the north).

[jaster220]

 Why is NAM showing snow over NE? I thought they weren't getting any?

 

 

[Tony]

The higher resoultion NAM models are pretty amped up compared to Op.

[james1976]

Para looks wetter too

Prolly for you

[OKwx2k4]

Looks like it sucks to be me. Better luck with the next runs I guess.

[Yerf]

LOT's note on the models and deformation:

 

Have favored a blend of the GFS
and EC which make good conceptual sense. This blend includes with
QPF, with the GFS probably too high over too large of an area and
EC too low at times given the system synoptics, especially in the
northern CWA. The 20.12Z and 20.18Z NAM runs and recent SREF runs
seem too far north with the system track, and given this is a
still a Day 3 system when higher resolution models may struggle,
have again preferred the global models.

 

Deformation should increase over the region
Saturday afternoon

[Snowshoe]

Chug chug GFS

[indianajohn]

Hahaha just like a movie all the models waiting until the end to let us know which way it's going. I really think a majority of us get a minimum 6-8" but wouldn't surprise me if we end up with a foot or a couple of inches.