12/16 - 12/18 Plains/Lakes Major Winter Storm

[CentralNebWeather]

There will be some interesting AFD discos this afternoon...every snow weenie in each local NWS office will pick their favorite model and run with it!

I follow 3 local NWS offices, North Platte NE, Hastings NE, and Goodland KS.  They are each fairly different in their analysis and forecasts.  Hastings- very conservative, Goodland- usually very aggressive, North Platte- seems to be more in the middle.  There are good and bad in each one of these, but not always sure who "gets it right" most of the time.

[Tom]

so If I am follwing you guys correclty this could be an all out blizzard or rain for my area LOL!

You and I are riding the edge in terms of it being a mix or all snow...

[jaster220]

This could be a good run for the central Plains states...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2016121312/ecmwf_T850_us_5.png

 

 

Based on this map, looks like the rain/snow line cuts through somewhere in Chicago/DTX...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2016121312/ecmwf_T850_ncus_5.png

 

 

From what I can tell, 12z Euro tracks from south of Denver, towards STL/C IN/N OH...

 

Welcome to the (South) party Euro! The BSR says "hello there, where ya been??"

 

 

[indianajohn]

Hey, where in northwest Indiana are you?

Schererville

[Niko]

Welcome to the (South) party Euro! The BSR says "hello there, where ya been??"

 

20161207 BSR map for 17-Dec.JPG

Great position of the Low.

 

@Tom

 

With that track, you should be all snow.

[Hoosier]

Schererville

Oh wow. Hi neighbor.

 

Fwiw, my current expectation is snow changing to ice and then possibly rain. Too early to get into any amounts. One thing I'd point out is that the magnitude of the cold air moving in plus little time for moderation before the storm suggests that surfaces could remain icy even awhile after it would potentially get above freezing.

[indianajohn]

Oh wow. Hi neighbor.

 

Fwiw, my current expectation is snow changing to ice and then possibly rain. Too early to get into any amounts. One thing I'd point out is that the magnitude of the cold air moving in plus little time for moderation before the storm suggests that surfaces could remain icy even awhile after it would potentially get above freezing.

Never realized you were from NWI since we "Regio Rats" up here are not considered "hoosiers" by the folks down south LOL.... 

[Hoosier]

Never realized you were from NWI since we "Regio Rats" up here are not considered "hoosiers" by the folks down south LOL....

Well I've been around the state but the farthest south I've lived is Lafayette.

[Grizzcoat]

The powder on the N side of this in the WAA is going to be very impressive for mid DEC,,, even impressive for the dead of winter. Ratios in some cases will be +20:1

[indianajohn]

Well I've been around the state but the farthest south I've lived is Lafayette.

Well from what I have been told anyone outside of Lake and Porter Counties can call themselves Hoosiers so Lafayette counts LOL!!

[Niko]

OK, can we have this turn into an all out "Blizzard" and bury the lakes. Now, where can I sign for that??!!

[indianajohn]

OK, can we have this turn into an all out "Blizzard" and bury the lakes. Now, where can I sign for that??!!

Get the petition ready Niko I will sign it...I don't remember if I have asked you this before but are you Greek?

[Stormgeek]

All I am hearing is "south, south, south"... Not sure I like how that will fair for me up here. Looks like the GFS is my friend at this point.

[Andrew NE]

Here is the 12z Euro through hour 120

[Andrew NE]

oops forgot to attach it

[GDR]

Still not much precip

[Tom]

oops forgot to attach it

S/C Wisco special on that map!

[Tom]

I think MKE/MSN are sitting very pretty...EURO/GFS at this range agreeing somewhere where the heaviest band sets up...now, if the lake can become involed...lookout WI shoreline!

[Grizzcoat]

oops forgot to attach it

Thanks for the map!!!!

[Money]

Nice

[gosaints]

Must be almost completely WAA snows

[Tom]

This system looks and feels very similar to last weekends storm and I think I remember the GFS did much better placing the WAA snows??

[jaster220]

..and then there's some folks out there with this "problem". Too much white gold?? Huh??

 

From a poster in the Keweenaw, a first season transplant, lol what a year to go there. PV meets extra warm GL's   Dude's gonna watch his house disappear. 

 

 

At some point...it just seems like there's no point to even bother measuring snow. It's deep. I can't even keep up with it anymore...it just keeps snowing...sometimes it drops a ton, sometimes it doesn't. Sometimes it's all fluff, sometimes it isn't. It's hard for me to reconcile the weirdness of this degree of snow...with any sort of functional meaning for a person viewing the stats at a later date. I'm guessing the best thing to really say is that it snow, it snows often...and it normally snows this many days during this month, this month, etc.

 

We got 30 inches the other night. It shut down the town. We got 8 inches yday morning...then it snowed 8-10 inches last night...now it's snowing a ton more.

I have lost count and I can't even think of a reason to bother recording it anymore.

[Tom]

..and then there's some folks out there with this "problem". Too much white gold?? Huh??

 

From a poster in the Keweenaw, a first season transplant, lol what a year to go there. PV meets extra warm GL's   Dude's gonna watch his house disappear. 

I visited there a number of years ago and went skiing to a place near Houghton, MI which is in the vicinity of where this person lives.  Once you start driving up towards the U.P. the landscape is literally a snow lovers dream.  Pine trees draped with snow, perfectly curved mounds of snow along ice free creeks, houses literally have snow up to their roofs and you can go sledding down them (I think its actually a benefit to them and can be construed as insulation).  Once you cross over the bridge into Houghton, that little town is just a massive blanket of snow.  Quite the sight to see.  The hilly terrain also acts as "lift" and it pukes snow up that way.  

 

Also, I remember a road into the peninsula that had a 40ft ruler on the side of the road and at that time it was measuring total snowfall somewhere in the 20Ft range.

[jaster220]

I visited there a number of years ago and went skiing to a place near Houghton, MI which is in the vicinity of where this person lives.  Once you start driving up towards the U.P. the landscape is literally a snow lovers dream.  Pine trees draped with snow, perfectly curved mounds of snow along ice free creeks, houses literally have snow up to their roofs and you can go sledding down them (I think its actually a benefit to them and can be construed as insulation).  Once you cross over the bridge into Houghton, that little town is just a massive blanket of snow.  Quite the sight to see.  The hilly terrain also acts as "lift" and it pukes snow up that way.  

 

Also, I remember a road into the peninsula that had a 40ft ruler on the side of the road and at that time it was measuring total snowfall somewhere in the 20Ft range.

 

Yep, been there once (July '90) and that giant ruler has the all-time record shown of 396" in, you guessed it, 1978-79   

[jaster220]

Hopefully those winds are propagating down to the surface just a bit..

 

 

 

       @ NAM (bigger than GHD-1?)

 

 

 

[Niko]

Get the petition ready Niko I will sign it...I don't remember if I have asked you this before but are you Greek?

Yes I am!

[Niko]

Hopefully those winds are propagating down to the surface just a bit..

 

20161213 Euro 12z 96hr 850mb & MSLP.JPG

 

       @ NAM (bigger than GHD-1?)

 

20161213 NAM 12km 12z 84hr Surf.JP

That is a ton of moisture. Holy macro!

[indianajohn]

Hopefully those winds are propagating down to the surface just a bit..

 

20161213 Euro 12z 96hr 850mb & MSLP.JPG

 

       @ NAM (bigger than GHD-1?)

 

20161213 NAM 12km 12z 84hr Surf.JPG

GHD if I remeber correclty we were tracking that storm 7 days out..I think for the most part it stayed course for most of those 7 days. I remember looking at 30" totals obviously we didn't come close to that snowfall but it was hell of a week tracking it.

[jaster220]

 

TWC @ it again 

 

Winter Storm Decima to Bring a Cross-Country Mess of Snow and Ice to the West, Midwest and Northeast Into the Weekend

 

Here's to "Decima" being the decimater of us all!  (see what I did there??) 

[indianajohn]

Yes I am!

thought so I am as well ...100% second generation. where is your family from in Greece?

[westMJim]

I visited there a number of years ago and went skiing to a place near Houghton, MI which is in the vicinity of where this person lives.  Once you start driving up towards the U.P. the landscape is literally a snow lovers dream.  Pine trees draped with snow, perfectly curved mounds of snow along ice free creeks, houses literally have snow up to their roofs and you can go sledding down them (I think its actually a benefit to them and can be construed as insulation).  Once you cross over the bridge into Houghton, that little town is just a massive blanket of snow.  Quite the sight to see.  The hilly terrain also acts as "lift" and it pukes snow up that way.  

 

Also, I remember a road into the peninsula that had a 40ft ruler on the side of the road and at that time it was measuring total snowfall somewhere in the 20Ft range.

Here is some more information on the "snow thermometer" it is in a road side park on US 41

  https://www.travelblog.org/Photos/4582170

[Tony]

That is a ton of moisture. Holy macro!

The GOM is wide open for business with this run.

[Tom]

Here is some more information on the "snow thermometer" it is in a road side park on US 41

https://www.travelblog.org/Photos/4582170

Thanks for sharing! Not quite 40ft, but close!

[Snowshoe]

A terrible problem to have. 

 

..and then there's some folks out there with this "problem". Too much white gold?? Huh??

 

From a poster in the Keweenaw, a first season transplant, lol what a year to go there. PV meets extra warm GL's   Dude's gonna watch his house disappear. 

[james1976]

12z Euro was a bettet ran than 00z

[Money]

Euro/GGEM/GFS all with 12+ for EC WI

 

Looking good so far

[jaster220]

GHD if I remeber correclty we were tracking that storm 7 days out..I think for the most part it stayed course for most of those 7 days. I remember looking at 30" totals obviously we didn't come close to that snowfall but it was hell of a week tracking it.

 

This time around, we were gladly pre-occupied with another storm hitting @ 7 days out, much better! Besides, the point is that map shows snow falling from SC to N Cali

in a continous swath!  I've never seen anything close to that portrayed except maybe in somebody's fake wx image they made up using photo shop 

[james1976]

All models showing 8+ for N IA. Id take that!

[Niko]

thought so I am as well ...100% second generation. where is your family from in Greece?

Cool dude......Chios! What about you?