12/16 - 12/18 Plains/Lakes Major Winter Storm

[Money]

6z GFS:

 

Snow:

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2016121306/126/snku_acc.us_mw.png

 

Ice:

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2016121306/126/zr_acc.us_mw.png

 

It takes a bit longer for the surface low to really deepen this run.

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2016121306/108/prateptype_cat.us_mw.png

[Grizzcoat]

Another look at 06Z GFS-

[Grizzcoat]

Interesting disco from MPX--- look at paragraph two...

Next issue is the snow storm. We are still seeing decent model
disagreements, with the question at hand dealing with phasing. Come
Friday, a positively tilted trough will be working south across the
Canadian Rockies as it works around the Hudson Bay low, with a
southern stream wave working across northern California on its way
to the 4-corners. The differences we are seeing with the 13.00
models is largely driven by when this phasing occurs. The ECMWF is
the most aggressive with the phasing, with the GFS on the slow end.
The result is the ECWMF having its heaviest precip across southern
MN into central WI, coming Friday/Friday night. While the GFS has a
more prolonged event lasting through Saturday, though its heaviest
QPF axis is down across northern IA into southern WI. For this
forecast we did decrease pops Thursday night, as all models have
back way off on the lead WAA band of snow that was progged to
come up Thursday night, with the snow now looking to mostly hold off
until Friday. Though forecasts may differ, all guidance shows it
snowing Friday/Friday night, so we increased PoPs above SuperBlend
guidance to get widespread categorical PoPs.

Looking at CIPS analog guidance for the forecast valid at 00z on the
17th (Friday evening), the top match is from November 30th 1985,
which happens to be the Twin Cities second largest snowstorm on
record, while number 2, January 12th, 1979 was Chicago's fourth
largest snowstorm on record. Though we probably won't see numbers
quite that high (both cities saw about 21" with these storms), it
does indicate the potential this type of weather pattern has. With
QPF likely topping out between at least a half and three-quarters of
an inch where the heaviest band sets up, we should have no problem
seeing a swath of at least 8-12", just a question of where. At the
moment, that where would range anywhere from the heart of the MPX
area to down along the MN/IA border into southern WI. Beside
these accumulations, we will have some stronger winds to go with
this storm that we did not have over the weekend, so there will be
at least a minor blowing and drifting component to this storm as
well. Bottom line, we will likely have winter storm watches rolling
out either later today or tonight if models continue to show what
the have been the last few days.

Behind this system, both the GFS/ECMWF show a very cold blast of
arctic air coming in for Saturday and Sunday. This will likely
result in the coldest weather we have seen since January of 2014
come Sunday. Like Thursday, we trended temperature forecasts Sunday
closer to CONSRAW, which pushed lows down down into the -15 to -25
range with highs Sunday mainly below zero. Current apparent
temperatures Sunday bottom out at -40 in western MN, so wind chill
warnings/advisories will likely follow up any winter storm headlines
we have this weekend.

 

 

[GDR]

[james1976]

Euro and GFS on different planets again.

[WBadgersW]

Both Euro and GFS show 6+". I would like to see the Euro trend a bit wetter in the days ahead.

 

It does look like long range NAM is going to be more like the GFS.

[St Paul Storm]

Euro and GFS on different planets again.

Yep, for sure. Euro now shows more of a wrapped phaser and the GFS is more spread the wealth type. We knew we couldn't go a whole storm with relatively good model consistency.

[Niko]

Models are all ova the place. By Wednesday, at the earliest, they will be getting a better idea. One thing is for sure, ice might be a player this time around for some.

[Tom]

 

Interesting disco from MPX--- look at paragraph two...

Next issue is the snow storm. We are still seeing decent model

disagreements, with the question at hand dealing with phasing. Come

Friday, a positively tilted trough will be working south across the

Canadian Rockies as it works around the Hudson Bay low, with a

southern stream wave working across northern California on its way

to the 4-corners. The differences we are seeing with the 13.00

models is largely driven by when this phasing occurs. The ECMWF is

the most aggressive with the phasing, with the GFS on the slow end.

The result is the ECWMF having its heaviest precip across southern

MN into central WI, coming Friday/Friday night. While the GFS has a

more prolonged event lasting through Saturday, though its heaviest

QPF axis is down across northern IA into southern WI. For this

forecast we did decrease pops Thursday night, as all models have

back way off on the lead WAA band of snow that was progged to

come up Thursday night, with the snow now looking to mostly hold off

until Friday. Though forecasts may differ, all guidance shows it

snowing Friday/Friday night, so we increased PoPs above SuperBlend

guidance to get widespread categorical PoPs.

 

Looking at CIPS analog guidance for the forecast valid at 00z on the

17th (Friday evening), the top match is from November 30th 1985,

which happens to be the Twin Cities second largest snowstorm on

record, while number 2, January 12th, 1979 was Chicago's fourth

largest snowstorm on record. Though we probably won't see numbers

quite that high (both cities saw about 21" with these storms), it

does indicate the potential this type of weather pattern has. With

QPF likely topping out between at least a half and three-quarters of

an inch where the heaviest band sets up, we should have no problem

seeing a swath of at least 8-12", just a question of where. At the

moment, that where would range anywhere from the heart of the MPX

area to down along the MN/IA border into southern WI. Beside

these accumulations, we will have some stronger winds to go with

this storm that we did not have over the weekend, so there will be

at least a minor blowing and drifting component to this storm as

well. Bottom line, we will likely have winter storm watches rolling

out either later today or tonight if models continue to show what

the have been the last few days.

 

Behind this system, both the GFS/ECMWF show a very cold blast of

arctic air coming in for Saturday and Sunday. This will likely

result in the coldest weather we have seen since January of 2014

come Sunday. Like Thursday, we trended temperature forecasts Sunday

closer to CONSRAW, which pushed lows down down into the -15 to -25

range with highs Sunday mainly below zero. Current apparent

temperatures Sunday bottom out at -40 in western MN, so wind chill

warnings/advisories will likely follow up any winter storm headlines

we have this weekend.

 

I like the '78/'79 analog right there!  Chicago's snowiest winter on record.

 

 

 

 

ORD Plume...

 

[Niko]

@ Tom

 

I wonder if any mixing will be occurring this time with those totals.

[gosaints]

Tom you sure that is the sref plume?  Maybe GFS ensembles.   Sref only getting into front end range.  

[jaster220]

..looks like an avg of all models per the checked boxes on the right side 

[Tom]

Tom you sure that is the sref plume?  Maybe GFS ensembles.   Sref only getting into front end range.  

Your right.  It's not the SREF's but instead an ensemble map of various models.

[jaster220]

 

 

I like the '78/'79 analog right there!  Chicago's snowiest winter on record!

 

Dis gonna b fun! 

 

As mentioned already, I'm seeing/feeling '78-79 and feeling it too. Shades of 2013-14 and some other analogs, but '78-79 leading the pack so far.

 

I think this region will end up being Ground Zero:

 

 

[Tom]

@ Tom

 

I wonder if any mixing will be occurring this time with those totals.

Gonna be a nail biter, but I think N IL and points south are looking better than before when models were wrapping this thing up into a western lakes cutter.  Don't think that is on the table now as op and ensembles are pointing towards a lower lakes cutter currently.

 

06z GEFS took a tick south...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2016121306/gfs-ememb_lowlocs_us_17.png

 

 

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2016121306/gfs-ememb_lowlocs_us_18.png

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2016121306/gfs-ememb_lowlocs_us_19.png

 

 

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2016121306/gfs-ens_apcpn_us_21.png

 

 

06z GEFS MSLP trend...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2016121306/gfs-ens_mslptrend_us_9.png

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2016121306/gfs-ens_mslptrend_us_10.png

[Tom]

Dis gonna b fun! 

 

As mentioned already, I'm seeing/feeling '78-79 and feeling it too. Shades of 2013-14 and some other analogs, but '78-79 leading the pack so far.

 

I think this region will end up being Ground Zero:

 

20161213 Ground Zero Map.JPG

Boy, if we end up getting 10"+ from this storm system, you can't help but think that we may make a run towards another memorable winter.  That goes for this entire region including the Midwest.

 

Just for fun, but I'm seeing both GEFS/GEPS indicating yet another weekend storm system targeting the same regions for the Christmas holiday!

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem-ens/2016121300/gem-ememb_lowlocs_us_50.png

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2016121306/gfs-ememb_lowlocs_us_48.png

[Tom]

00z Euro...

 

 

[Jaycee]

00z Euro...

 

 

Come on now lmao. That is the most comical thing I have ever seen for Nebraska. Wow. If that doesn't show our luck during the winter every year, I don't know what does.

[Niko]

00z Euro...

10"+ for me. I'll accept it.

[Tom]

Come on now lmao. That is the most comical thing I have ever seen for Nebraska. Wow. If that doesn't show our luck during the winter every year, I don't know what does.

I don't know what to say about this amigo!  I did drive through Omaha/NE not long ago, but I didn't see no dome..   .....let's squash this theory with a nice snow storm this weekend.

[Tom]

This system has a deep subtropical connection...

 

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/GSSLOOPS/wcwv.html

 

 

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/west/weus/rb.jpg

[gosaints]

NAM seems to have slowed things down as well

[jaster220]

Boy, if we end up getting 10"+ from this storm system, you can't help but think that we may make a run towards another memorable winter.  That goes for this entire region including the Midwest.

 

Just for fun, but I'm seeing both GEFS/GEPS indicating yet another weekend storm system targeting the same regions for the Christmas holiday!

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem-ens/2016121300/gem-ememb_lowlocs_us_50.png

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2016121306/gfs-ememb_lowlocs_us_48.png

 

January of '79 I was a HS freshman and got my first invite to try Alpine skiing with my older sis and hubby. They would go to Crystal Mountain resort in NW Lwr part of MI. I loved it, cuz they went on a CMU day which was a week day and I was allowed to play hooky to go skiing up north. That ofc, was a good winter even in SEMI, but up there in the LES snow belt, there must've been 50-60" OTG and it looked like snow weenie paradise. Even the main state hwy was totally snow covered with fresh LES and the banks were monstrously huge! I didn't think anywhere outside the mountain west had such deep pristine snow like on a post card. Went 2 or 3 times that record season. Then got new skis and the very next season was the year of dry and cold. Hardly had a flake that wasn't machine made. 

 

If these storms pan out, I would imagine Christmas morning depth records would be in play around this region, eh? That'd be something from where we were, not that long ago.

[jaster220]

NAM seems to have slowed things down as well

 

Mentioned by MPX, why they backed off the snow on Thurs. 

[gosaints]

Ya the NAM is advertising more of a friday 9 am or so start time

[Tom]

12z NAM also has a nice High over Low placement and a very strong low in the Rockies....this has been something I've been paying attention to and see where the SLP organizes in the Plains states.  GFS elongates the energy and has 2 pieces overnight Friday...it's just after the NAM range where it gets real important around here what happens.

 

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/namconus/2016121312/namconus_mslpa_us_53.png

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016121306/gfs_mslpa_us_18.png

[Tom]

FWIW, the NAM has been trending south in the Rockies region over the last 4 runs...the HP near the British Columbia/Alberta region seems to be stronger each run.

 

Last 4 runs near MT area have been increasing heights...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/namconus/2016121218/namconus_mslpa_us_51.png

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/namconus/2016121300/namconus_mslpa_us_49.png

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/namconus/2016121306/namconus_mslpa_us_47.png

 

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/namconus/2016121312/namconus_mslpa_us_45.png

[Money]

Tom is gonna pull this one in and go 3/3 this year

[WBadgersW]

Tom is gonna pull this one in and go 3/3 this year

Ha the south trends have me a bit worried. Seems like its just a bleed South so hopefully they stop soon.

[hlcater]

Even though Geos moved to Washington, it looks as if he left his snow magnet behind.

[Tom]

Tom is gonna pull this one in and go 3/3 this year

Not completely comfortable yet.  Still think this is going to be a N IA/S WI special but N IL is riding the edge due to the warm tongue.  If we get 10" of thump snow, then turn to ice, then back to snow I won't complain though.  Staying all snow is iffy right now.  If by Thursday trends continue, I'll be more enthusiastic.

[Niko]

Not completely comfortable yet.  Still think this is going to be a N IA/S WI special but N IL is riding the edge due to the warm tongue.  If we get 10" of thump snow, then turn to ice, then back to snow I won't complain though.  Staying all snow is iffy right now.  If by Thursday trends continue, I'll be more enthusiastic.

So far, GEM model has me in all snow with ova a foot.

 

GFS is 5-10inches changing to ice and then back to snow.

[CentralNebWeather]

Very anxious and nervous at the same time.  

[Tony]

It would be amazing if this winter panned out like 77-78 and 78-79. It was back to back memorable winters that I would hope someday I would be able to experience again. It seemed like it snowed every other day and we were always under winter storm watches. Back then the criteria was a little different but still credible. I lived in the city at the time and eventually there was soo much snow on the streets that they eventually ran out of room and had to bring in dump trucks to remove the snow from the streets and dump them into forest preserves and into the Chicago River. The forest preserves grew mountains overnight and boy you could imagine the fun everyone had with that.

 

Also, both years was a money maker for shoveling snow especially rooftops. The snow was so heavy that there was a major concern of roof collapses that most folks, especially apartment building owners with flat roofs, had us shoveling there rooftops. It was hard work but my friends and I were in it for the money so we shoveled roofs for weeks on end.

 

Side streets barely got touched because main streets came first and by the time they were ready for the side streets another storm would come. There was two paths(ruts)in the street where the cars would drive on so basicly you could take your hands off the wheel and the cars would just follow the path without you even touching the wheel. Cars were always double parked on the street because the alleys had so much snow on them no one could get to their garages. You could guarantee its not if your car would get smacked but when. My car got hit alot but it was a beater so I really did not care. Most folks had two sets of cars back then. One nice car during the summer months and one nasty car for the winter months so if it got smashed you really did not care.

 

I hope you guys get to experience that this coming winter beacuse I tell you it will be something you will never ever forget and the stories you will tell will bring a smile to every snow lovers face.

 

Good luck to all this winter!!

[Tom]

Very anxious and nervous at the same time.  

12z NAM took a step in the right direction and really cooled off 850's in NE/KS...brings the 0C isotherm line farther south than the GFS...obviously, at this range it is highly suspect.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/namconus/2016121312/namconus_T850_ncus_53.png

[St Paul Storm]

I know the NAM has its issues at this range, but it handled last weekends system quite well at least here. Curious to see what it does with that high in SW Canada and the subsequent push of arctic air. The 12z run has it farther north/west than the 6z GFS which looks like it might provide more opportunity for the low to come a bit north. We'll see. Maybe just wishful thinking.

[CentralNebWeather]

12Z GFS is going.  Be interesting to see how similar it is to the NAM's thinking about holding energy back in the west longer.

[gosaints]

I know the NAM has its issues at this range, but it handled last weekends system quite well at least here. Curious to see what it does with that high in SW Canada and the subsequent push of arctic air. The 12z run has it farther north/west than the 6z GFS which looks like it might provide more opportunity for the low to come a bit north. We'll see. Maybe just wishful thinking.

Your towel definetly shouldnt be thrown

[winterfreak]

People in Minnesota definitely shouldn't be throwing the towel in. If anyone should, it would be me.

[Madtown]

Just don't want any mixing here....I'll be happy with whatever long as it's not liquid