12/16 - 12/18 Plains/Lakes Major Winter Storm

[Money]

Some images:

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2016121200/138/prateptype_cat.conus.png

 

Total snowfall:

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2016121200/144/snku_acc.us_mw.png

[Money]

00z GFS...similar to the 18z GFS but a tad north...

 

WAA snows look pretty good also. Snows for over 30 hours here.

 

This is before the system really even develops:

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2016121200/132/snku_024h.us_mw.png

[East Dubzz]

Some nasty freezing rain:

 

[Tom]

If that storm can just track a little more south and cover our NE/IA/KC posters, it would turn out to be a phenomenal storm. Last couple runs it's been going west/east instead of cutting to far north. Hope it's a trend. That arctic HP could do some serious Lehs if the right wind direction sets up just right.

[Tom]

That track sorta reminds me of the GHD II Blitz '15...

[Money]

GEM:

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2016121200/gem_mslpa_us_21.png

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2016121200/gem_mslpa_us_23.png

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2016121200/gem_mslpa_us_24.png

[East Dubzz]

Not a great run there, but looks like some decent WAA snows here before that. 

[Money]

GEM looks like it's faster than the GFS which allows it to cut farther north before the HP settles in. GFS digs it a little bit. 

[East Dubzz]

GEM looks like it's faster than the GFS which allows it to cut farther north before the HP settles in. GFS digs it a little bit. 

That's pretty much it. The speed/placement of that HP up north is going to be yuggge.

[winterfreak]

This one has no chance to produce snow down here with the +AO and poor placement of the HP. I have already come to terms with that.

[Money]

GEM:

 

http://maps3.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ggem/2016121200/144/snku_acc.us_mw.png

[Money]

FYI: GGEM Ensembles look much more like the GFS than the GGEM OP:

 

HR 132:

 

http://weather.gc.ca/data/ensemble/images/2016121200_054_E1_north@america_I_ENSEMBLE_pnm@moy_132.png

[GDR]

Yeah officially sucks

[Grizzcoat]

[Money]

Euro looks like GFS

 

HR 120:

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ecmwf/2016121200/120/sfcmslp.conus.png

[Grizzcoat]

High wins out on EUro

[Money]

Yup. It was similar to the GFS until about HR 120.

 

Looks like .6-.8 QPF from eastern MN into eastern/southern WI

[Money]

gosaints area actually gets more QPF on the Euro than the GFS (.7 on Euro compared to .5 on GFS) 

 

Anyone have the snow map with ratios for Euro?

[Grizzcoat]

gosaints area actually gets more QPF on the Euro than the GFS (.7 on Euro compared to .5 on GFS) 

 

Anyone have the snow map with ratios for Euro?

I will once Accu loads

[East Dubzz]

Slightly south from the last Euro run, but very similar run

[Grizzcoat]

QPF for C.IA nearly doubled--- from around .15 to around .30"

very high ratios in MN (anywhere really in the heavier QPF area)

[East Dubzz]

A big difference between the GFS and Euro is the location of that original snowband... what I'm assuming in a WAA snow. GFS brings up further south into Iowa; Euro takes it further north.

[Money]

QPF for C.IA nearly doubled--- from around .15 to around .30"

very high ratios in MN (anywhere really in the heavier QPF area)

 

Seems like whoever gets in the WAA band could see some very good snows.

 

GFS was painting 12-14 inches of snow on .5 QPF in some spots in Minnesota/Iowa/WI

[East Dubzz]

Seems like whoever gets in the WAA band could see some very good snows.

Yeah that band looks like it could potentially be the biggest snow producer in this system.

 

Get them both and you're having a great storm.

[Grizzcoat]

MSP-

FRI 06Z 16-DEC -15.6   -13.0    1026      72      92    0.01     540     520    FRI 12Z 16-DEC -12.4   -11.8    1018      81     100    0.13     539     526    FRI 18Z 16-DEC -10.2   -13.0    1012      82      99    0.20     539     530    SAT 00Z 17-DEC  -9.9   -13.8    1010      86      92    0.12     538     530    SAT 06Z 17-DEC -12.8   -14.8    1015      84      61    0.01     535     523

DSM-

FRI 06Z 16-DEC  -6.4    -8.8    1024      37      87    0.02     553     534    FRI 12Z 16-DEC  -5.0    -6.2    1014      44      48    0.01     553     542    FRI 18Z 16-DEC  -1.5    -2.3    1006      50      46    0.02     552     547    SAT 00Z 17-DEC  -1.2    -1.7    1003      75      54    0.04     550     548    SAT 06Z 17-DEC  -3.4    -6.2    1008      85      87    0.05     548     542    SAT 12Z 17-DEC  -9.4   -12.4    1018      73      97    0.13     547     533    SAT 18Z 17-DEC -13.1   -13.4    1025      64      92    0.01     544     525    SUN 00Z 18-DEC -17.7   -15.4    1028      67      81    0.05     542     521 

OMA-

FRI 00Z 16-DEC  -5.3    -9.4    1026      36      81    0.01     555     534    FRI 06Z 16-DEC  -4.7    -9.0    1019      34      44    0.00     555     540    FRI 12Z 16-DEC  -1.8    -3.7    1008      55      30    0.01     554     548    FRI 18Z 16-DEC   1.7    -0.5    1002      71      50    0.01     552     551    SAT 00Z 17-DEC   0.2    -3.8    1002      90      72    0.01     550     548    SAT 06Z 17-DEC  -6.4    -9.9    1013      75      98    0.09     548     538    SAT 12Z 17-DEC -10.5   -14.6    1022      65      97    0.08     546     529    SAT 18Z 17-DEC -13.7   -15.6    1028      50      88    0.02     543     522    SUN 00Z 18-DEC -15.5   -16.9    1029      60      74    0.05     541     519

DBQ-

FRI 18Z 16-DEC  -8.0    -9.3    1013      73      80    0.08     549     539    SAT 00Z 17-DEC  -6.5    -5.6    1008      81      77    0.06     548     542    SAT 06Z 17-DEC  -6.2    -7.3    1007      90      96    0.07     546     540    SAT 12Z 17-DEC  -8.5   -10.4    1013      82      95    0.13     545     535    SAT 18Z 17-DEC  -9.1   -12.4    1018      70      76    0.01     544     530    SUN 00Z 18-DEC -12.5   -14.4    1024      68      75    0.02     541     523

[Money]

 

MSP-

FRI 06Z 16-DEC -15.6   -13.0    1026      72      92    0.01     540     520    FRI 12Z 16-DEC -12.4   -11.8    1018      81     100    0.13     539     526    FRI 18Z 16-DEC -10.2   -13.0    1012      82      99    0.20     539     530    SAT 00Z 17-DEC  -9.9   -13.8    1010      86      92    0.12     538     530    SAT 06Z 17-DEC -12.8   -14.8    1015      84      61    0.01     535     523

DSM-

FRI 06Z 16-DEC  -6.4    -8.8    1024      37      87    0.02     553     534    FRI 12Z 16-DEC  -5.0    -6.2    1014      44      48    0.01     553     542    FRI 18Z 16-DEC  -1.5    -2.3    1006      50      46    0.02     552     547    SAT 00Z 17-DEC  -1.2    -1.7    1003      75      54    0.04     550     548    SAT 06Z 17-DEC  -3.4    -6.2    1008      85      87    0.05     548     542    SAT 12Z 17-DEC  -9.4   -12.4    1018      73      97    0.13     547     533    SAT 18Z 17-DEC -13.1   -13.4    1025      64      92    0.01     544     525    SUN 00Z 18-DEC -17.7   -15.4    1028      67      81    0.05     542     521 

OMA-

FRI 00Z 16-DEC  -5.3    -9.4    1026      36      81    0.01     555     534    FRI 06Z 16-DEC  -4.7    -9.0    1019      34      44    0.00     555     540    FRI 12Z 16-DEC  -1.8    -3.7    1008      55      30    0.01     554     548    FRI 18Z 16-DEC   1.7    -0.5    1002      71      50    0.01     552     551    SAT 00Z 17-DEC   0.2    -3.8    1002      90      72    0.01     550     548    SAT 06Z 17-DEC  -6.4    -9.9    1013      75      98    0.09     548     538    SAT 12Z 17-DEC -10.5   -14.6    1022      65      97    0.08     546     529    SAT 18Z 17-DEC -13.7   -15.6    1028      50      88    0.02     543     522    SUN 00Z 18-DEC -15.5   -16.9    1029      60      74    0.05     541     519

DBQ-

FRI 18Z 16-DEC  -8.0    -9.3    1013      73      80    0.08     549     539    SAT 00Z 17-DEC  -6.5    -5.6    1008      81      77    0.06     548     542    SAT 06Z 17-DEC  -6.2    -7.3    1007      90      96    0.07     546     540    SAT 12Z 17-DEC  -8.5   -10.4    1013      82      95    0.13     545     535    SAT 18Z 17-DEC  -9.1   -12.4    1018      70      76    0.01     544     530    SUN 00Z 18-DEC -12.5   -14.4    1024      68      75    0.02     541     523

 

OSH?

[Grizzcoat]

MSN-

FRI 12Z 16-DEC -13.4   -13.3    1025      72      98    0.04     544     525    FRI 18Z 16-DEC  -9.8   -11.1    1016      77      99    0.14     546     534    SAT 00Z 17-DEC  -8.0    -8.6    1010      82      95    0.15     546     538    SAT 06Z 17-DEC  -7.5    -9.1    1008      90     100    0.12     544     538    SAT 12Z 17-DEC  -9.0   -11.1    1012      83      89    0.12     542     533    SAT 18Z 17-DEC  -8.6   -13.4    1017      70      57    0.00     542     529    SUN 00Z 18-DEC -11.2   -15.3    1023      74      53    0.01     539     522

RST-

FRI 06Z 16-DEC -15.1   -12.4    1027      69     100    0.01     543     522    FRI 12Z 16-DEC -11.7   -11.3    1018      78      99    0.12     543     529    FRI 18Z 16-DEC  -9.6   -12.3    1012      82      95    0.20     543     534    SAT 00Z 17-DEC  -8.9    -9.7    1008      88      98    0.29     542     536    SAT 06Z 17-DEC -10.4   -13.0    1013      88      75    0.10     539     529    SAT 12Z 17-DEC -13.8   -15.1    1019      81      45    0.01     537     523 

ORD-

FRI 12Z 16-DEC -11.0   -13.6    1027      76     100    0.01     547     527    FRI 18Z 16-DEC  -8.1    -9.3    1019      73      99    0.06     550     536    SAT 00Z 17-DEC  -5.7    -7.2    1011      76     100    0.06     550     541    SAT 06Z 17-DEC  -3.4    -3.7    1006      91      88    0.07     549     544    SAT 12Z 17-DEC  -4.5    -4.3    1008      87      97    0.21     548     541    SAT 18Z 17-DEC  -5.4    -7.9    1013      67      97    0.02     548     538    SUN 00Z 18-DEC  -5.9   -11.1    1018      75      96    0.03     546     532    SUN 06Z 18-DEC  -8.9   -13.5    1023      74      89    0.01     544     527    SUN 12Z 18-DEC -13.0   -15.5    1030      75      86    0.02     539     516    SUN 18Z 18-DEC -12.0   -17.2    1033      58      18    0.01     542     518 

[Grizzcoat]

OSH-

FRI 12Z 16-DEC -11.0   -16.0    1027      79     100    0.02     542     522    FRI 18Z 16-DEC  -8.8   -11.6    1019      76      98    0.08     544     530    SAT 00Z 17-DEC  -7.6   -11.0    1010      82      99    0.24     542     534    SAT 06Z 17-DEC  -6.2    -8.2    1004      84      98    0.20     540     537    SAT 12Z 17-DEC  -5.9    -8.4    1002      89     100    0.06     538     537    SAT 18Z 17-DEC  -6.7   -12.6    1006      78      99    0.09     536     532    SUN 00Z 18-DEC  -6.9   -15.9    1012      75      80    0.01     532     522 

[Grizzcoat]

Remember this map is strictly 10:1

 

[james1976]

Anyone have a 6z GFS snowfall map?

[gosaints]

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2016121206/162/snku_acc.us_mw.png

[james1976]

Thanks.

Just read DMX afd. They are going with light to moderate snowfall as of right now.

Also mentions possibly above normal temps next week.

[gosaints]

Thanks.

Just read DMX afd. They are going with light to moderate snowfall as of right now.

Also mentions possibly above normal temps next week.

I understand there caution. Very progressive flow in place.  If the growth zone plays ball with this one some places could see some real fluff

[gosaints]

MSP discussion below.  They say only minor shifts expected! Ya right.  Famous last words...

 

After Thursday, attention turns to an upper low that is currently
off the BC/Alaska coast. This wave will slowly sag south through
Wednesday, but as the upper low near Hudson Bay begins to fill and
lift into eastern Canada, this wave will start working out across
the CONUS. This wave will come across the CONUS with a positive tilt
and will be interacting a northern stream wave and associated arctic
air as well. The Canadian/ECMWF/GFS remain in good agreement on a
strong WAA band of precip working into southern/central MN Thursday
night and transitioning into a more deformation precip band as we
get some interaction between the northern and southern streams. The
main area of disagreement is with how quickly the arctic air works
back into the area. The slowest is the Canadian and has the precip
farthest NW, while the ECMWF is the fastest and has its heaviest
precip farther southeast. However, these differences only result in
the Canadian having its heaviest QPF swath across central MN and WI
with the ECMWF having it from SE MN into SE WI. For several runs now
the models have been showing this heavy snow setup and confidence is
certainly increasing that we will likely see a large part of our
area see 6+ inches of snow, with amounts likely not too dissimilar to
what we just saw over this past weekend. If we are to see shifts in
the coming days, they will likely be fairly minor and shifting to
the south (stronger arctic air push).

[Tom]

00z GFS Para...nearly identical to what happened with this past weekends system.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfsp/2016121200/gfsp_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_21.png

 

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfsp/2016121200/gfsp_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_23.png

[gosaints]

00z GFS Para...nearly identical to what happened with this past weekends system.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfsp/2016121200/gfsp_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_21.png

 

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfsp/2016121200/gfsp_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_23.png

It seems at though the vortex is going to be the saving grace even around here.  If it wasnt around I think this thing would cut hard.  Nothing wrong with spreading more wealth

[Tom]

Here is an extended view of the overnight 00z EURO...

 

 

[gosaints]

Models seem to speeding up this system.  

[gosaints]

GFS much weaker on the west coast

[Tom]

GFS much weaker on the west coast

Larger and juicer WAA snows over spreading out ahead of the system on Friday...