January 2017 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[Heavy Snow]

The 18z GFS looks good through the next 7 days.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2017013118/gfs_asnow_nwus_29.png

[jakeinthevalley]

The precip looks real pathetic on basically all models. They seem to be implying that the models are underestimating the frontogenesis as the warm moist air runs into the dry cold. I doubt we see more than a trace.

Well, the December "event" was a perfect example of that happening. There was literally nothing on the radar and when the enhancement started, it just blossomed

[SilverFallsAndrew]

This has January/March 2012 potential here

[Perturbed Member]

Well, the December "event" was a perfect example of that happening. There was literally nothing on the radar and when the enhancement started, it just blossomed

True but at least the models picked up on something that time and there was that ULL to our NW that helped that process along. I guess we can't really rule out an inch or two but I would think 0 to a trace is more likely.

[Bryant]

Models picking up on the jet extension towards mid month brought in part by WHem MJO forcing that I mentioned earlier. We need this round to work unless we want to wait until end of Feb/beginning of March

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Nws really downplaying the early next week chances lol

[luvssnow_spokane]

Looks wet and warm mid-next week. WOW!  Snow will be short lived... Sun to about Weds then watch it melt baby!!  

 

[luvssnow_spokane]

Nws really downplaying the early next week chances lol

la-la-land... they should. 

[Perturbed Member]

Nws really downplaying the early next week chances lol

Just how we want it. Perfect.

[HighlandExperience]

I'm wondering if Portland NWS lost their minds.

[snow_wizard]

The 18z looks really good.  If anything the block look more solid than earlier runs.

[MossMan]

Looks wet and warm mid-next week. WOW!  Snow will be short lived... Sun to about Weds then watch it melt baby!!  

 

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_nwus_35.png

Perfect! Seeing how usually the warm up gets delayed by a day or two...like what happened in Jan 2012! I say we have another Jan 2012 on our hands...which would be perfect! I had 18" from that event! 

[TT-SEA]

Looks wet and warm mid-next week. WOW! Snow will be short lived... Sun to about Weds then watch it melt baby!!

 

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_nwus_35.png

4 days would be very significant. You need to move to Minnesota with your expectations.

[Jesse]

4 days would be very significant. You need to move to Minnesota with your expectations.

Not to mention that's nine days out. Long range has featured some dramatic swings lately.

[HighlandExperience]

Not to mention that's nine days out. Long range has featured some dramatic swings lately.

Right. Why even focus on the middle of next week? 4-5 days of snow and cold is a big deal for this area. This isn't Bozeman.

[luvssnow_spokane]

4 days would be very significant. You need to move to Minnesota with your expectations.

Just to note:: I am thrilled with 4 days. Just was impressed with the drastic swing from cold to what looks to be an atmospheric river. Not disappointed at all if what the models are showing actually happens. My expectations are pretty low really. It has just been so long with so many epic busts I am a bit antsy... looking forward to Sunday!

[luvssnow_spokane]

Right. Why even focus on the middle of next week? 4-5 days of snow and cold is a big deal for this area. This isn't Bozeman.

First off, I was not focusing on it I only mentioned... But it would be okay to focus on the middle of next week if it showed a mega snowstorm... --- Again, I am super happy to see we have a shot as it looks amazing (If it happens). I am hopeful!

[MossMan]

NWS Seattle not biting just yet other than Friday morning...

 

WAZ507-011300-
EVERETT AND VICINITY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...EVERETT...EDMONDS...LYNNWOOD...
MARYSVILLE...ARLINGTON
328 PM PST TUE JAN 31 2017

.TONIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S. NORTH
WIND 10 TO 15 MPH BECOMING NORTHEAST AFTER MIDNIGHT.
.WEDNESDAY...SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S. NORTHEAST WIND
10 TO 20 MPH.
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE 20S TO LOWER 30S.
NORTHEAST WIND 10 TO 15 MPH.
.THURSDAY...SUNNY. HIGHS NEAR 40. NORTHEAST WIND 10 TO 15 MPH
BECOMING EAST IN THE AFTERNOON.
.THURSDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY IN THE EVENING...THEN CLOUDY WITH
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOWS IN THE MID 20S TO
LOWER 30S. EAST WIND 10 TO 15 MPH DECREASING TO 10 MPH OR LESS
AFTER MIDNIGHT.
.FRIDAY...CLOUDY. A CHANCE OF SNOW IN THE MORNING...THEN A CHANCE
OF RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S.
.FRIDAY NIGHT...RAIN LIKELY. LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S.
.SATURDAY...RAIN LIKELY. HIGHS IN THE MID 40S.
.SATURDAY NIGHT...CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN. LOWS IN THE MID
TO UPPER 30S.
.SUNDAY...CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN. HIGHS IN THE MID 40S.
.SUNDAY NIGHT...RAIN LIKELY. LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S.
.MONDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN. HIGHS IN THE LOWER
40S.
.MONDAY NIGHT...RAIN LIKELY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S.
.TUESDAY...RAIN LIKELY. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 40S. 

[Heavy Snow]

Current thoughts from Mark Nelsen right now. He thinks it will be cold enough for snow at first and up to 2 inches snow posdible but it could just be mainly freezing rain.

 

"Thursday will likely be dry through at least the first half of the day too as the cold east wind continues. Right now it appears that solid precipitation arrives sometime later Thursday and continues through Friday. At first the cold air will be deep enough for snow, then as it warms above we should changeover to freezing rain sometime Thursday night. I see an inch or two snowfall before a changeover Friday AM, OR it could be a mainly freezing rain event…we'll see."

[HighlandExperience]

[luvssnow_spokane]

Perfect! Seeing how usually the warm up gets delayed by a day or two...like what happened in Jan 2012! I say we have another Jan 2012 on our hands...which would be perfect! I had 18" from that event! 

Not to worried about it either way, being so far out. Just a sideline share.

[luvssnow_spokane]

Amazing difference between Seattle NWS and Portland NWS discussion.

 

Based on the Afternoon discussion this just looks like another non event for Seattle.

 

#stroryofourwinter

 

Kinda dont blame them. Screwed enough to know better. AS the whole winter has been packed with pullbacks in the models. So, I think it is smart on their behalf. I bet if the models are showing the same things by Thursday they may be getting a bit more (cautiously) serious about it.

[snow_wizard]

Wow!

 

The NWS is being about as conservative as anyone could possibly be about early next week.  One thing I kind of disagree with in the forecast discussion is they said the colder outcome just showed up in the 12z while it actually began to show up in the 0z.

[snow_wizard]

The 18z ensemble was solidly cold for early next week.  The mean, operational, and control all showed 850s dropping to -7 or lower.

[HighlandExperience]

[MossMan]

Wow!

 

The NWS is being about as conservative as anyone could possibly be about early next week.  One thing I kind of disagree with in the forecast discussion is they said the colder outcome just showed up in the 12z while it actually began to show up in the 0z.

Not too surprised since Felton seems to be the most conservative forecaster there...I think its just a tad too far out yet to change things up too much at this point. That being said...I think we get hammered!

[snow_wizard]

Looking good for a hard frost tonight.  I'll end up with 20 lows of 32 or below this month after having 20 last month.  Been a long time since we had back to back months with 20 or more.

[snow_wizard]

Like you said the atmosphere has a "memory" right now the default is screw Puget Sound

 

They are just not mentioning the cold at all.

[Heavy Snow]

The NAVGEM gives a region wide snowstorm on Monday. The track is almost perfect so everybody can score. It looks like the EURO with the strong L coming from the SW.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/navgem/2017013118/navgem_mslp_pcpn_wus_22.pnghttp://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/navgem/2017013118/navgem_mslp_pcpn_wus_23.pnghttp://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/navgem/2017013118/navgem_mslp_pcpn_wus_24.png

[snow_wizard]

Not too surprised since Felton seems to be the most conservative forecaster there...I think its just a tad too far out yet to change things up too much at this point. That being said...I think we get hammered!

 

The evolution shown by all models is perfect for Puget Sound snowfall.  Even the ECMWF ensemble is solidly cold.

[snow_wizard]

The NAVGEM gives a region wide snowstorm on Monday. The track is almost perfect so everybody can score. It looks like the EURO with the strong L coming from the SW.

 

 

Pretty nice.  I think the heavier precip would extend a bit further north as usual with that setup.  Certainly has a nice Fraser outflow signature.

 

EDIT:  The increments on the precip map are higher than I thought.  Really nice!

[luvssnow_spokane]

The NAVGEM gives a region wide snowstorm on Monday. The track is almost perfect so everybody can score. It looks like the EURO with the strong L coming from the SW.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/navgem/2017013118/navgem_mslp_pcpn_wus_22.pnghttp://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/navgem/2017013118/navgem_mslp_pcpn_wus_23.pnghttp://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/navgem/2017013118/navgem_mslp_pcpn_wus_24.png

 

Everything about it beautiful!  Cold air, gobs of moisture and a low that tracks just right. 

[MossMan]

The evolution shown by all models is perfect for Puget Sound snowfall.  Even the ECMWF ensemble is solidly cold.

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[Heavy Snow]

Pretty nice. I think the heavier precip would extend a bit further north as usual with that setup. Certainly has a nice Fraser outflow signature.

 

EDIT: The increments on the precip map are higher than I thought. Really nice!

Everything about it beautiful! Cold air, gobs of moisture and a low that tracks just right.

Yeah this seems similar to the Storm King track that dumped tons of snow. It's going to be fun to track how the trough coming from the NW interacts with the system coming from the SW. These next few days are going to be wild model riding this thing!

[Perturbed Member]

I noticed the NAVGEM and EURO bring that very strong SW low Sunday to the region to produce snow. The GEM and GFS have the BC slider low dominate instead. GEM has the SW low much weaker and going into OR/CA border. GFS sends it into central CA coastline. Quite a bit of disagreement there but good to see snow being produced over most of the region in several different scenarios.

[umadbro]

This winter has already been so much win. If next week happens like it could. I don't know how I'd handle all that winning. The only thing left would be a mariners world series. But we all know inviting the mariners to the world series would be awkward for everyone.

[Jesse]

Looking good for a hard frost tonight. I'll end up with 20 lows of 32 or below this month after having 20 last month. Been a long time since we had back to back months with 20 or more.

Yup, PDX could possibly score one more to end the month before midnight as well.

 

That would give them 22 for the month. Including a stretch of 17-consecutive the 1st through 17th.

[Jesse]

The high of 41 at PDX today was pretty impressive given the relatively early clearing.

[MossMan]

Haha.

[Heavy Snow]

Here is what the 12z JMA thinks right now. Instead of maps I'll post the meteograms for YVR, SEA and PDX. They are cold and snowy. YVR drops down to -15C next week, SEA to -12C and PDX to -9C.

 

http://img.meteocentre.com/models/jma_amer_12/PN_D5_TT_TT_P1_NT_UV_UU_VV_METE_12000_Vancouver.png

http://img.meteocentre.com/models/jma_amer_12/PN_D5_TT_TT_P1_NT_UV_UU_VV_METE_12000_Seattle.png

http://img.meteocentre.com/models/jma_amer_12/PN_D5_TT_TT_P1_NT_UV_UU_VV_METE_12000_Portland.png