January 2017 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[Front Ranger]

Wow, really hoping this one works out for a widespread event, especially those who've been in the screw zone this winter.

 

If current trends hold true, no matter how much snow falls where, 2016-17 will join the rare ranks of winters that had significant PNW cold/lowland snow in December, January, and February.

[luvssnow_spokane]

Haha.

I think it is about time he charges his phone.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Hit 41 today, down to 33 already.

[luvssnow_spokane]

High of 48 already down to 37... 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I am going to end January with very similar temps to December. It looks like about 1 degree cooler. The last half of January down here was actually average to slightly above. Only 1 sub-40 high after the 16th. I think January 2013 was actually slightly cooler...

[Heavy Snow]

http://img.meteocentre.com/models/jma_amer_12/PN_D5_TT_TT_P1_NT_UV_UU_VV_METE_12000_Portland.png

Just for fun I tried to calculate how much snow the JMA would give PDX. I counted 38mm when the surface temperature is freezing or below with negative 850 temps for next week. Assuming this is all snow, 38mm is roughly 1.5" of liquid precipitation and would be 15" of snow with the standard 10:1 ratio. It's still a long ways out but almost all the models are showing good snowfall accumulations for next week.

[Heavy Snow]

Mark thinks 1-2" of snow is likely now for PDX Metro before switching over to freezing rain.

 

http://i.imgur.com/BTI2Fwr.jpg

[seattleweatherguy]

I can see that even we are at 38 right now with dp in the 20s

[Jesse]

I am going to end January with very similar temps to December. It looks like about 1 degree cooler. The last half of January down here was actually average to slightly above. Only 1 sub-40 high after the 16th. I think January 2013 was actually slightly cooler...

Meanwhile up here we are enjoying the coldest month since 1985.

[Perturbed Member]

Mark thinks 1-2" of snow is likely now for PDX Metro before switching over to freezing rain.

 

http://i.imgur.com/BTI2Fwr.jpg

 

Real interesting. I guess Mark thinks enough of the column will remain 0c or less to support a quick inch or two before the switch over. Sure would be nice if it happened.

[epiceast]

Real interesting. I guess Mark thinks enough of the column will remain 0c or less to support a quick inch or two before the switch over. Sure would be nice if it happened.

Any winters we beat in snowfall total if that happens?

[NorthBurnabyWeather]

I know it's February, but I've always wondered: what do you think have been the most catastrophic fire weather scenarios in the PNW throughout history. Like, a complete burn ban for all of WA/OR/ID/MT, on top of a complete campfire ban for all of British Columbia. Summers of 2003, 2014 and 2015 spring to mind.

[luminen]

How many snow/ZR events is it going to take for Portland/Multnomah county to get proper snow removal equipment and procedures? Maybe they're in denial.

 

Anyway, it's suddenly looking good here for some wet snow. I'm not optimistic though.

[Jesse]

Just a little bit of light left in the sky when I got off at 6pm today. First time in awhile. Bring on late winter!

[Perturbed Member]

How many snow/ZR events is it going to take for Portland/Multnomah county to get proper snow removal equipment and procedures? Maybe they're in denial.

 

Anyway, it's suddenly looking good here for some wet snow. I'm not optimistic though.

 

 

You know we will pay for all of this winter weather by getting nothing the next 3-5 winters.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Meanwhile up here we are enjoying the coldest month since 1985.

 

Yeah the gorge really helped PDX with this one. PDX's negative departure is significantly greater than anywhere else west of the Cascades. The departure here will end up about -4.5 or so which is pretty similar to most other places west of the Cascades in Oregon and Washington. East of the Cascades was significantly colder and PDX was able to tap into that. With really the biggest difference being the 2nd half of the month when they avoided some of the milder days and positive departures other places put up. Plus it really wasn't the kind of set up that would pull of a massive departure up here... Looking at December 1985 here, it was a fairly cold month, but it was actually a bit warmer than PDX that month, which makes sense given how inversiony it was.

 

All in all it looks like it will still end up the coldest Dec/Jan combo up here since 78-79. Still haven't hit 50 here since November 29th.

 

And this month here is still about a degree colder than PDX....Though a typical January would be about 4-5 degrees colder...

[Perturbed Member]

Any winters we beat in snowfall total if that happens?

 

 

Not sure where our current snowfall total ranks to be honest.

 

Anyone know?

 

It is kind of misleading though since the NWS office in Portland only recorded 8 inches of snow while parts of even NW downtown recorded 13+ inches. I had about 12 inches.

[Brennan]

I know it's February, but I've always wondered: what do you think have been the most catastrophic fire weather scenarios in the PNW throughout history. Like, a complete burn ban for all of WA/OR/ID/MT, on top of a complete campfire ban for all of British Columbia. Summers of 2003, 2014 and 2015 spring to mind.

I've been wondering the same thing today. Can't seem to get it off my mind!

[Trainwreck]

24 now with a light snow that has been here since about 2pm. Looking cold the next couple days then a brief warm up and then more snow and cold. Seems relentless this winter. I wonder when my daffodils will spring. Could be April this year. 49" now on the season for snowfall and looks to climb the next week.

[VancouverIslandSouth]

The timing on the 0z NAM is now about in line with the GFS and other models for the Thursday night - Friday overrunning event. But it looks way warmer than any of the other models right now. That upper level vortex rolling too far offshore is certainly one negative way this could unfold. Not a good phasing with the approaching low.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/namconus/2017020100/namconus_T850_nwus_53.png

[Deweydog]

The timing on the 0z NAM is now about in line with the GFS and other models for the Thursday night - Friday overrunning event. But it looks way warmer than any of the other models right now. That upper level vortex rolling too far offshore is certainly one negative way this could unfold.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/namconus/2017020100/namconus_T850_nwus_53.png

NAM is very splitty going into the weekend. It's a definite risk so much 500mb cyclogenesis.

[Perturbed Member]

According to the 00z NAM, this is the total precip that falls over PDX that is frozen. Several of the bands just split and fall apart as they lift north. 

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/namconus/2017020100/namconus_apcpn_nwus_23.png

 

 

Basically nothing. By the time any real precip arrives, it is shown as all rain.

 

 

NAM thinks no one gets any real snow out of this on the west side of the cascades.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/namconus/2017020100/namconus_asnow_nwus_29.png

 

 

 

The 3km 00z NAM has a deformation band ahead of the low trying to move north into PDX but it gets obliterated by the dry east winds.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nam3km/2017020100/nam3km_ref_frzn_nwus_33.png

[snow_wizard]

I know it's February, but I've always wondered: what do you think have been the most catastrophic fire weather scenarios in the PNW throughout history. Like, a complete burn ban for all of WA/OR/ID/MT, on top of a complete campfire ban for all of British Columbia. Summers of 2003, 2014 and 2015 spring to mind.

 

I know there were some really bad ones in the 80s.  Probably 84 and / or 85.

[snow_wizard]

If it drops to 26 here before midnight I will record the coldest January of the century so far.  Still looking for a really cold one though.

[Guest Dome Buster]

Last event had numerous models with a trace of snow over most of PDX.  Even Mark Nelsen said trace to 2 inches, with the most over west side of the district.

 

We all remember what "really" happened. 

[Deweydog]

Yeah the gorge really helped PDX with this one. PDX's negative departure is significantly greater than anywhere else west of the Cascades. The departure here will end up about -4.5 or so which is pretty similar to most other places west of the Cascades in Oregon and Washington. East of the Cascades was significantly colder and PDX was able to tap into that. With really the biggest difference being the 2nd half of the month when they avoided some of the milder days and positive departures other places put up. Plus it really wasn't the kind of set up that would pull of a massive departure up here... Looking at December 1985 here, it was a fairly cold month, but it was actually a bit warmer than PDX that month, which makes sense given how inversiony it was.

 

All in all it looks like it will still end up the coldest Dec/Jan combo up here since 78-79. Still haven't hit 50 here since November 29th.

 

And this month here is still about a degree colder than PDX....Though a typical January would be about 4-5 degrees colder...

The last two months is going to go down as a true blockbuster from a low level cold perspective. I would suspect you'd have a whole lot of trouble finding as cold a December/January combo with such a consistent, relatively unimpressive group of upper level air masses. As it stands, we saw about two days of prime-placed blocking throughout the entire period.

[snow_wizard]

Meanwhile up here we are enjoying the coldest month since 1985.

 

In this area Nov - Dec 1985 had an incredibly cold two month average.  December was way colder here than most places west of the Cascades probably due to seepage from the passes.

[snow_wizard]

The last two months is going to go down as a true blockbuster from a low level cold perspective. I would suspect you'd have a whole lot of trouble finding as cold a December/January combo with such a consistent, relatively unimpressive group of upper level air masses. As it stands, we saw about two days of prime-placed blocking throughout the entire period.

 

This has been been a pretty impressive winter from the standpoint of us getting repeated shots of low level continental cold.  In many cases once it arrived there was nothing to get rid of it..especially in Portland.

[Guest Dome Buster]

I just posted this on the fox12 weather blog.

 

Yep.  And you were so positive last time that most places may see an inch or two.  Trace most places.

Let's just realize at this point that PNW forecasting is 50/50 and prepare for the worst.  It is very irresponsible for Mark and other forecasters in the area....IE; Rod Hill, to tell people it isn't a big deal.

What I see on satellite at the moment is cold air pouring down south eating away at the offshore low pressure system.  It will eventually move in, most likely with a lot of low level cold to work with.  How cold?  Mark, and no one else knows. 

Get away from your models for a second and look at what is happening in real time... Good lord.

[Deweydog]

I just posted this on the fox12 weather blog.

 

Yep. And you were so positive last time that most places may see an inch or two. Trace most places.

Let's just realize at this point that PNW forecasting is 50/50 and prepare for the worst. It is very irresponsible for Mark and other forecasters in the area....IE; Rod Hill, to tell people it isn't a big deal.

What I see on satellite at the moment is cold air pouring down south eating away at the offshore low pressure system. It will eventually move in, most likely with a lot of low level cold to work with. How cold? Mark, and no one else knows.

Get away from your models for a second and look at what is happening in real time... Good lord.

Definitely something to be proud of.

[luvssnow_spokane]

You know we will pay for all of this winter weather by getting nothing the next 3-5 winters.

Well that is status quo for the puget sound so no biggie

[Bryant]

I just posted this on the fox12 weather blog.

 

Yep. And you were so positive last time that most places may see an inch or two. Trace most places.

Let's just realize at this point that PNW forecasting is 50/50 and prepare for the worst. It is very irresponsible for Mark and other forecasters in the area....IE; Rod Hill, to tell people it isn't a big deal.

What I see on satellite at the moment is cold air pouring down south eating away at the offshore low pressure system. It will eventually move in, most likely with a lot of low level cold to work with. How cold? Mark, and no one else knows.

Get away from your models for a second and look at what is happening in real time... Good lord.

Your point is?

[BLI snowman]

Your point is?

That he can be obnoxious in multiple places online at once. It's a true gift.

[umadbro]

I just posted this on the fox12 weather blog.

 

Yep. And you were so positive last time that most places may see an inch or two. Trace most places.

Let's just realize at this point that PNW forecasting is 50/50 and prepare for the worst. It is very irresponsible for Mark and other forecasters in the area....IE; Rod Hill, to tell people it isn't a big deal.

What I see on satellite at the moment is cold air pouring down south eating away at the offshore low pressure system. It will eventually move in, most likely with a lot of low level cold to work with. How cold? Mark, and no one else knows.

Get away from your models for a second and look at what is happening in real time... Good lord.

I read that over there. Just as dumb here as it was there.

[Bryant]

That he can be obnoxious in multiple places online at once. It's a true gift.

I know I can be obnoxious on here, but 2 places at once is too much to handle. Must come natural

[James Jones]

I just posted this on the fox12 weather blog.

 

Yep.  And you were so positive last time that most places may see an inch or two.  Trace most places.

Let's just realize at this point that PNW forecasting is 50/50 and prepare for the worst.  It is very irresponsible for Mark and other forecasters in the area....IE; Rod Hill, to tell people it isn't a big deal.

What I see on satellite at the moment is cold air pouring down south eating away at the offshore low pressure system.  It will eventually move in, most likely with a lot of low level cold to work with.  How cold?  Mark, and no one else knows. 

Get away from your models for a second and look at what is happening in real time... Good lord.

 

I have no idea how Mark still has a job when you exist

[Guest Dome Buster]

I have no idea how Mark still has a job when you exist

I respect Mark and you guys don't even realize he is actually a family member of mine. 

 

The point is, if a trained eye of satellite loops and water vapor loops, ie; Rob?, were to see that forecast versus what was really happening, he would most likely say what I am saying.  I understand all the mainstream "hysteria" avoidance, but it is downright irresponsible not to bring up possibilities that it could be a lot worse.

 

I am at the moment letting my girlfriend know that Friday morning could be another mess.  Regardless of what Rod Hill would have some of us believe..

[Jesse]

I just posted this on the fox12 weather blog.

 

Yep. And you were so positive last time that most places may see an inch or two. Trace most places.

Let's just realize at this point that PNW forecasting is 50/50 and prepare for the worst. It is very irresponsible for Mark and other forecasters in the area....IE; Rod Hill, to tell people it isn't a big deal.

What I see on satellite at the moment is cold air pouring down south eating away at the offshore low pressure system. It will eventually move in, most likely with a lot of low level cold to work with. How cold? Mark, and no one else knows.

Get away from your models for a second and look at what is happening in real time... Good lord.

Weren't you the one saying, "No way in hell. Maybe this would have given us snow in the 80s but not now. " in regard to the last event?

[Guest Dome Buster]

Weren't you the one saying, "No way in hell. Maybe this would have given us snow in the 80s but not now. " in regard to the last event?

Well, I was stood corrected!!

 

I was amazed at the over-performance of the last event.  Just shows that this year is different and the intrusion of east winds is more dense and persistent than the last 30 years (2008 exempt from this).  Just a strange year as I figured we were screwed again due to lack of dense snow cover in the basin, originally.

 

Now that we have a good basin snow.  All bets are off.

[Deweydog]

Well, I was stood corrected!!

 

I was amazed at the over-performance of the last event. Just shows that this year is different and the intrusion of east winds is more dense and persistent than the last 30 years (2008 exempt from this). Just a strange year as I figured we were screwed again due to lack of dense snow cover in the basin, originally.

 

Now that we have a good basin snow. All bets are off.

...

 

No one even checked the east wind density index (EWDI) going into this winter. Would have saved us from a lot of model riding.