Tom Posted July 20, 2017 Author Report Share Posted July 20, 2017 Latest 12z GFS run highlighting the same areas getting pounded by strong/training storms overnight Friday...nocturnal jet in full effect... http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2017072012/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_ncus_7.png http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2017072012/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_ncus_8.png http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2017072012/gfs_apcpn_ncus_10.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted July 20, 2017 Report Share Posted July 20, 2017 Awesome Loop of last night's storms. Check out those mesocyclones. https://twitter.com/NASA_SPoRT/status/888058189912080385/photo/1 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted July 20, 2017 Author Report Share Posted July 20, 2017 18z High Rez NAM coming in hot for Fri-Sat... http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nam3km/2017072018/nam3km_mslp_pcpn_frzn_ncus_36.png http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nam3km/2017072018/nam3km_mslp_pcpn_frzn_ncus_39.png 18z NAM... http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/namconus/2017072018/namconus_apcpn_ncus_18.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted July 20, 2017 Author Report Share Posted July 20, 2017 MKX's take on heavy rain potential... http://www.weather.gov/images/mkx/wxstory/Tab2FileL.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted July 20, 2017 Report Share Posted July 20, 2017 man, the same spots keep getting hammered. Reminds me of winter. At least we have received some moderate amounts of rain down my way, but we could use a little more still. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted July 21, 2017 Report Share Posted July 21, 2017 Dry is the key word here. Turned on my Sprinklers as my grass is turning a little brown. Mother nature is not providing. Maybe tomorrow SEMI will get some juicy storms! Dry air on the way for next week. So far, yesterday was the first time my area hit the 90s this month, WOW! Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted July 21, 2017 Author Report Share Posted July 21, 2017 00z NAM 3km hammers S WI... http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nam3km/2017072100/nam3km_apcpn_ncus_19.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted July 21, 2017 Author Report Share Posted July 21, 2017 Both NAM models have shifted the heavy rain band south and keeps the action where it has been firing up. Here are both 12z runs... http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nam3km/2017072112/nam3km_apcpn_ncus_9.png http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/namconus/2017072112/namconus_apcpn_ncus_9.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted July 21, 2017 Author Report Share Posted July 21, 2017 Latest HRRR run pretty much agrees with the NAM... http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/hrrr/2017072113/hrrr_ref_frzn_ncus_12.png http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/hrrr/2017072113/hrrr_ref_frzn_ncus_15.png http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/hrrr/2017072113/hrrr_ref_frzn_ncus_17.png http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/hrrr/2017072113/hrrr_apcpn_ncus_18.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted July 21, 2017 Author Report Share Posted July 21, 2017 HRRR picking up on a secondary band that crushes CR area... http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/hrrr/2017072114/hrrr_apcpn_ncus_18.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted July 21, 2017 Author Report Share Posted July 21, 2017 Flooding potential is not looking good for N IL... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted July 21, 2017 Author Report Share Posted July 21, 2017 As was the case with last weeks event, models are shifting south with the corridor of strong/training storms and N IL is in the hot zone once again. Based on what I'm seeing, this will be an interesting evening for a lot of IA/IL posters...WI posters borderline.... Run after run, HRRR keeps showing 2-4"+ over N IL... http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/hrrr/2017072117/hrrr_apcpn_ncus_18.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted July 21, 2017 Author Report Share Posted July 21, 2017 IA folks about to get a either a Severe Thunderstorm or Tornado watch soon... http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/mcd1380.gif Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted July 21, 2017 Author Report Share Posted July 21, 2017 Courtesy from Skilling: Does this heavy rain corridor look familiar??? That would suck for the DP and Fox River's... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted July 21, 2017 Author Report Share Posted July 21, 2017 @ Jaster/WestJim, you guys are not out of the woods! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted July 21, 2017 Report Share Posted July 21, 2017 Not warned at this point, but that cell headed for Rockford looks interesting. Gonna head right down I-90. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted July 21, 2017 Author Report Share Posted July 21, 2017 Not warned at this point, but that cell headed for Rockford looks interesting. Gonna head right down I-90.Been reading its SWS's and it has been producing torrential rains. I got a bad feeling he rivers are going to all be screwed in N IL. Another major flooding event? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted July 21, 2017 Report Share Posted July 21, 2017 Been reading its SWS's and it has been producing torrential rains. I got a bad feeling he rivers are going to all be screwed in N IL. Another major flooding event?My wife and son just landed at O'Hare. Glad they got in before the storms hit this evening. Northern LOT gonna get pounded with flooding rains again it appears. That warned cell in ND at 70k ft?? Skies finally clearing here. Unfortunately too little too late. The clouds from this morning appear to have ruined another great severe setup. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted July 21, 2017 Report Share Posted July 21, 2017 Good shot of Thunderstorms late tonight into tomorrow morning in SEMI. Hopefully, we get drenched. Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted July 21, 2017 Author Report Share Posted July 21, 2017 Wow...Tennis ball sized hail... Severe Thunderstorm Warning Severe Weather StatementNational Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville Il448 PM CDT FRI JUL 21 2017ILC031-043-212230-/O.CON.KLOT.SV.W.0134.000000T0000Z-170721T2230Z/DuPage IL-Cook IL-448 PM CDT FRI JUL 21 2017...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 530 PM CDTFOR NORTHEASTERN DUPAGE AND NORTHWESTERN COOK COUNTIES...At 448 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located over Schaumburg,moving east at 25 mph.HAZARD...Tennis ball size hail and 60 mph wind gusts.SOURCE...Radar indicated.IMPACT...People and animals outdoors will be injured. Expect haildamage to roofs, siding, windows, and vehicles. Expect winddamage to roofs, siding, and trees. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted July 21, 2017 Author Report Share Posted July 21, 2017 Thunderstorm Watches hoisted for all of N IL and most of E IA... Tornado warned cell popped up just south of CR near Iowa City...I think we have a member near there... Tornado WarningSevere Weather StatementNational Weather Service Quad Cities IA/IL459 PM CDT FRI JUL 21 2017IAC103-212245-/O.CON.KDVN.TO.W.0048.000000T0000Z-170721T2245Z/Johnson IA-459 PM CDT FRI JUL 21 2017...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 545 PM CDT FOR CENTRALJOHNSON COUNTY...At 459 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornadowas located near Kalona, or 11 miles southwest of Iowa City, movingeast at 15 mph.HAZARD...Tornado and golf ball size hail.SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation.IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught withoutshelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damageto roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree damage islikely. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted July 21, 2017 Author Report Share Posted July 21, 2017 Western burbs by my place getting crushed by a severe cell producing 1.25" hail... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted July 21, 2017 Report Share Posted July 21, 2017 I'm not really liking the trend. The southern Wisconsin and eastern Iowa convection should link up and blast northern Illinois over the next several hours. The HRRR shows this well. From CR west, there's still nothing popping. The HRRR now delays development back to central Iowa until later, with just a narrow tail of convection passing over a lucky few. The main show should be east. Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted July 21, 2017 Report Share Posted July 21, 2017 Hoping the storms that fired in ND and N MN hold together as they pivot SE. The atmosphere seems to be recovering here in the Twin Cities as the skies cleared around 3:30. This may be a sneaky MCS developing that the models missed due to the earlier convection. Long shot....but we'll see. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted July 21, 2017 Author Report Share Posted July 21, 2017 Major flooding and wind damage from that cell... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted July 21, 2017 Author Report Share Posted July 21, 2017 Initial reports even suggesting a microburst hit the area... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted July 21, 2017 Report Share Posted July 21, 2017 And....here is my thunderstorm potential from NOAA: Hazardous Weather OutlookHazardous Weather OutlookNational Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI353 PM EDT Fri Jul 21 2017MIZ047>049-053>055-060>063-068>070-221030-Midland-Bay-Huron-Saginaw-Tuscola-Sanilac-Shiawassee-Genesee-Lapeer-St. Clair-Livingston-Oakland-Macomb-353 PM EDT Fri Jul 21 2017This hazardous weather outlook is for locations along and north of M-59..DAY ONE...This Afternoon and TonightThere is a chance of thunderstorms late tonight. These storms are notexpected to be severe, but will be capable of producing heavyrainfall. Storm motion will be east at 30 mph..DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through ThursdayThere is a continued chance of thunderstorms on Saturday and Sundaywith the best chance Saturday morning. The storms on Saturday are notexpected to be severe. An isolated marginal severe storm is possibleon Sunday as a cold front tracks through..SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotter activation will not be needed today and tonight. Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted July 21, 2017 Report Share Posted July 21, 2017 Holy wow, Tom. Thanks for sharing. The wife is in Downer's Grove and she says nothing is happening there....yet. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BrianJK Posted July 21, 2017 Report Share Posted July 21, 2017 Holy wow, Tom. Thanks for sharing. The wife is in Downer's Grove and she says nothing is happening there....yet. That nasty cell just barely brushed my area. The Downers area and anywhere south probably got a few drops at best. Radar is pretty well lit to the west, so this evening may be quite active. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted July 21, 2017 Author Report Share Posted July 21, 2017 That nasty cell just barely brushed my area. The Downers area and anywhere south probably got a few drops at best. Radar is pretty well lit to the west, so this evening may be quite active.Yup, training signature evident in radar. Someone will get 6"+ total by tomorrow am Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted July 22, 2017 Author Report Share Posted July 22, 2017 While you guys out in the Midwest are getting a taste of severe wx, out here, albeit it rather minimal comparatively speaking, I just experienced a storm that blossomed out of nowhere right above my place and had a mini micro-burst with some dust out ahead of it. It literally formed right overhead. I've never had that experience before out here. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted July 22, 2017 Report Share Posted July 22, 2017 Severe thunderstorm watch now extended south to the very northern outskirts of the TC metro. That line is holding its own. Nothing better than a midnight squall line. It's expected to weaken but we'll see. Bring it. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BrianJK Posted July 22, 2017 Report Share Posted July 22, 2017 Its wild to see the multiplie individual cells within the cluster all doing their own thing. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted July 22, 2017 Author Report Share Posted July 22, 2017 Not good....not good...hearing radar estimates out west of 2-3"/hr... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted July 22, 2017 Author Report Share Posted July 22, 2017 Significant wind damage all across the western burbs and lots of hail reports from that super cell... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted July 22, 2017 Report Share Posted July 22, 2017 LOT radar looks like a Christmas tree right now with those colors. Daymn! Good luck and be safe all. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted July 22, 2017 Author Report Share Posted July 22, 2017 HRRR continues to pummel N IL with a secondary plume of moisture after 1:00am...6"+ totals are becoming more likely... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted July 22, 2017 Author Report Share Posted July 22, 2017 IA folks not out of the picture yet...latest SPC Mesoscale discussion talking about some possible storm development later tonight... Farther west across IA, there is some concern that a strengtheningsouthwesterly LLJ will initiate new convection atop reinforcedoutflow late this evening. If this occurs large hail could become aconcern with elevated storms across this region. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted July 22, 2017 Report Share Posted July 22, 2017 Northeast Iowa convection blowing up again. Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted July 22, 2017 Report Share Posted July 22, 2017 N IL is in for a long night with that new stuff around Dubuque and Decorah, IA. Never-ending training. The nighttime LLJ doing work. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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